Last year, proposed and enacted government policy changes caused significant shifts in the international education sector in Australia. These trends were largely driven by uncertainty around the government’s intended ‘soft cap’ on international student volumes, .

This legislation—the ESOS Amendment Bill—was ultimately scrapped due to a lack of support in Australia’s parliament, but its proposed tertiary student commencement limitations¹ were later (MD111) in December. Despite how recently these limits were formally enacted, the debates throughout 2024 created confusion for students and contributed to weakened demand for studying in Australia.

To evaluate the impact of these policy debates and changes on student demand, we’re diving into Australian student visa trends over the first six months of 2024/25.² We’ll be taking a closer look at which student populations experienced the biggest shifts, how the proposal of the ESOS bill impacted different levels of study, and what we expect to see for Australia’s international education sector by the end of 2024/25.

Student Visas Granted in 2024/25 On Track to Return to 2018/19 Levels

In each of the two fiscal years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia granted more than 200,000 student visas to new international students. And, in the first full post-pandemic year (2022/23), Australia reached a new high-water mark of over 325,000 new student visas granted. This was partly due to the “double cohort effect”, where students who had delayed studying abroad moved forward with their plans once widespread travel resumed.

As student volumes normalized in 2023/24, Australia’s new international student population still showed modest gains over pre-pandemic levels. But as we look to the 2024/25 fiscal year, our projections show that the number of new student visas granted may fall by 10% year-over-year:

Through the first six months of 2024/25, around 110,000 new student visas were granted to international students planning to study in Australia. This was a decrease of 10% from the same months in 2023/24. We expect this trend to continue across the full year, and granted visa volumes are historically split fairly evenly across both halves of a given year in Australia. This means that a full-year 10% decline would result in approximately 220,000 new student visas granted in 2024/25, returning Australia’s new international student populations to 2018/19 volumes.

While the previously proposed NPL was mapped against the 2025 calendar year—as opposed to the 2024/25 fiscal year—it is notable that the NPL included a new visa issuance cap of 270,000 in 2025 for higher ed and VET. If new visa issuances in 2025 match 2024, new international student volumes across all study levels would fall below this cap by nearly 20%. And this scenario can’t be shelved just yet: the overall cap, as well as indicative caps for each Australian institution, have been.

Predicting Student Demand for Studying in Australia in 2024/25

The decline in student visas granted isn’t due to policy changes alone. Student demand is also impacted by policy discussions and implementation. Ever since the ESOS Bill was proposed and began creating uncertainty around Australia’s international student policies, the number of new student visas lodged has dropped substantially:

About 111,000 student visa applications were lodged in the first six months of 2024/25, representing a 37% decline over the same period of the previous year. If this softened demand persists across the full fiscal year, Australia may see fewer new visa applications lodged than in any non-pandemic year since 2016/17.

However, we don ‘t expect this decline to persist long-term. It’s far more likely that 2024/25 will be a ‘reset’ year that returns Australia to their modest pre-pandemic growth trend. Even if 2024/25 concludes with lower new student volumes than 2018/19 for Australian institutions, overall demand for studying abroad remains strong and Australia is an attractive destination for many students.

Higher Ed Visa Grants Hold Steady Amid Allocation Shifts

Australia’s 2024/25 student visa trends show that the NPL-turned-MD111 continues to shape outcomes across study levels, given that NPL visa allocations now underpin MD111’s student visa processing policies. These , shielding many universities from significant cap impacts, while non-tertiary providers were excluded from the NPL entirely.

By projecting granted student visa volumes across 2024/25, based on data from the first six months of the fiscal year, we can see how visa trends align with these policy aims:

Australia’s higher ed, non-award, and schools sectors are all projected to experience marginal growth in new international student populations in 2024/25, compared to the previous year. Similarly, postgraduate visa grants are trending towards relative stability compared to the past two years. This reinforces that Australia’s international sector is well-poised for modest future growth, and the potential that 2024/25 will be a new baseline for future years.

If all these study levels are relatively stable, or even growing, what’s driving the overall drop in new student visas? VET and ELICOS programs. These two study levels have experienced significant year-over-year declines since the 2022/23 high-water mark:

While VET programs accounted for over 13% of all visas granted in the first half of 2022/23, they represented just 4% of granted visas over the same period in 2024/25. This is largely due to two main factors. First, significant limitations were placed on VET providers under the new indicative allocations, meaning that many VET programs have limited seats available for international students. Second, visa grant rates for VET studies have remained around 50% over the past three years, at least 30 percentage points below the all applicant average.⁴

For Australia’s ELICOS sector, lower approval rates have also been a factor. Grant rates for ELICOS visas were around 75% in the first half of last year, down from 90% in full-year 2022/23. More importantly, growth in this sector was previously driven by high demand from students across Latin America, especially Colombia and Brazil. As this demand has softened substantially over the past two years, the study level has faced challenging persistent declines.

With VET and ELICOS demand softening, providers should focus on differentiation and adaptability. Strengthening pathways to higher education, expanding industry partnerships, and enhancing student support can boost appeal. Diversifying recruitment and highlighting strong program outcomes—like job prospects or university articulation—will also be key. Staying agile amid policy shifts and advocating for sector needs can help navigate this challenging period.

International Students from Across Asia Driving Sector Stability

For institutions across Australia, understanding student mobility flows from different student populations is foundational for future recruitment efforts. Over the past decade, the two largest student populations in Australia have been students from China and from India. Historically, Chinese students have been the largest cohort within Australia’s international student population. But pre- and post-pandemic, Indian students were poised to become the top new student population, based on student visas granted per year.

Now, as incoming student flows shift based on government policies and geopolitical factors, Australia’s new Chinese and Indian student populations are on different trajectories:

Based on lodged student visa data from the last year and a half, it’s almost certain that Chinese students will remain the top new student population in Australia in the coming years. In fact, for 2024/25, we predict that the number of student visa applications from Chinese students will remain near-stable year-over-year. This stability helps support Australia’s higher ed sector in particular, given that over 90% of Chinese student visa applications were for higher ed programs.

By contrast, demand from Indian students fell by nearly 20% from 2023/23 to 2023/24. And, based on Jul–Dec 2024/25 data, we anticipate this demand to further weaken by up to 30% again this year. This decline will account for a significant portion of the overall drop in visas granted for higher ed studies. As with Chinese students, Indian students are largely drawn to Australia’s higher ed sector, with 93% of Indian student visa applications directed toward higher ed in the last six months of 2024.

It is worth noting, however, that Australia is not alone in experiencing declining Indian student volumes. Canada, the US, and the UK have all seen new Indian student numbers drop over the past year, and India’s government has introduced several initiatives to encourage students to pursue higher education locally. This highlights the growing importance of having a diverse student recruitment strategy, especially as prospective students consider more destinations than ever before.

Growth Opportunities for Australian International Education

While India and China will remain key sources of new international students in the coming years, Australian institutions should also look to adjust their efforts based on other emerging—and declining—new student populations.

Growth in visas granted to students from Asia, North America, and Europe helped give the sector stability in 2024/25 and, moving forward, represent key areas of potential recruitment diversification strategies:

Through the first six months of 2024/25, East Asian student populations accounted for three of the top five fastest-growing new student cohorts, based on new student visas granted. New student populations from Taiwan, South Korea, and China all grew by at least 20% in early 2024/25, compared to the same period last year. Across the rest of Asia, student demand from Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka also saw significant growth.

Interestingly, many of these growing student populations represent established or growing international student destinations. Canada and the USA are fellow members of the ‘Big Four’,⁵ while China and have dedicated significant resources in recent years to strengthen their international education sectors. Likewise, Germany has seen rising demand among international students, with German institutions . Collectively, this may create challenges developing these student flows in the long-term, although students from China and South Korea remain high-potential opportunities over the next five years.

When it comes to student populations with weakening demand, there is a clear connection to the challenges facing Australia’s VET and ELICOS sectors. Many of Australia’s fastest-declining student populations were drawn primarily to either VET or ELICOS programs in previous years. While students from Vietnam, Bhutan, and Pakistan are largely driven towards higher ed studies, Vietnamese and Pakistani students have experienced falling visa grant rates.⁶ The grant rate for Vietnamese students fell to just 76% in 2023/24, their lowest approval rate in decades. In the face of these challenges, VET and ELICOS providers will need to diversify their recruitment efforts and promote strong program outcomes to prospective students.

Looking Ahead to 2025

With the implementation of Ministerial Directive 111, clarity is beginning to settle across Australia’s international education sector. Institutions have been provided with their indicative allotments for 2025, and while adjustments continue to be made to these figures, the mechanics of Australia’s international student cap are largely set. While these limits present challenges in attracting top global talent, they also offer opportunities to enhance sector sustainability long-term.

Australia remains a popular destination for international students, strengthened by robust post-graduation work opportunities. As Australia hones its approach to international education, strong cross-collaboration on skills development, program design, and employment pathways can help draw top talent while equipping students for success in their careers. By remaining adaptable and focused on student success, institutions can maximize their potential in 2025 and beyond.

For personalized insights and strategies to maximize your institution’s potential, reach out to your Partner Relations Manager or contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com. ApplyBoard’s expertise in recruitment partner training, document verification, and student guidance equips institutions with the tools they need to enhance application quality, attract global talent, and maintain diverse student populations.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Known, under the original bill, as the National Planning Level or NPL.

2. All data courtesy of the . All data reported according to Australian governmental financial years, which span from July of one year to June of the next year (for example, July 2023 to June 2024 was the 2023/24 year), unless otherwise noted. The data used for this article includes subclass 500 and subclass 570 to 576 visas lodged or granted to primary applicants located outside Australia only. The first six months of 2024/25 span from July 2024 to December 2024.

3. Student visas for primary applicants located outside of Australia only.

4. For offshore, primary applications only. The VET visa grant rate was 51.5% in 2022/23, 46.6% in 2023/24, and 52.3% in Jul–Dec 2024/25. By contrast, the all applicant grant rates were 80.3%, 78.9%, and 88.0%, respectively.

5. A term used to denote the four largest English-speaking international student destination countries, namely Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

6. While visa approval rates for Bhutanese students remained on par with previous years in 2023/24 and early 2024/25, have attributed decreased demand towards Australia to policy change skepticism.

The post Student Demand for Studying in Australia Shifting Under New Policies appeared first on ApplyBoard.

The American international education sector had strong momentum going into 2024, after achieving impressive growth in the 2023 fiscal year.¹ And, with new data showing the number of F-1 student visas² issued by the United States over fiscal year 2024, it’s clear the US remains a top-tier destination. In fact, the US welcomed international students from over 200 countries in 2024. However, fewer F-1 visas were issued than in both prior years, indicating the rising influence of study abroad destinations beyond the ‘Big 4’ of Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Today, we’ll dive into U.S. Department of State data³ to understand how specific student populations have shifted, look at the total number of American F-1 student visas issued in 2024, and detail trends that may affect the international education sector moving forward.

Number of US Student Visas Issued Dropped in 2024, Remained Above Late-2010s Levels

In 2024, new student visa issuances fell by nearly 45,000 year-over-year, dropping to around 401,000. However, new issuances remained higher than they were in fiscal years 2017, 2018, and 2019. This may signal a levelling-out of the growth caused by the ‘double cohort’ effect which helped to drive student numbers in 2022 and 2023:

This drop in visa issuance may seem counter to the fact that the total population of international students in the US reach its highest level ever in 2024. However, the chart above only shows how many new F-1 student visas were issued over the most recent fiscal year. This means it doesn’t capture the full picture of the American international education sector.  F-1 issuances don’t account for students already pursuing their studies, or those working at job placements through post-completion Optional Practical Training (OPT). Additionally, up-to-date government data on F-1 visa application volumes and approval rates is not currently available. Issuance data only captures new student inflows, rather than necessarily reflecting overall demand. If F-1 visa application volumes remained stable or even increased in 2024, yet approval rates fell at a higher rate, issuances could still decline year-over-year.

Yet these lower issued volumes mean that as new graduates complete their studies or finish their placements, we may see the overall international student population in the US decline. Limited student inflows may not be enough to surpass graduate outflows, even if demand for international study in the US remains at an all-time high.

A new record for OPT placements was set over the 2023/24 academic year, accounting for almost 243,000 student visa holders.

Issued Visas Decline in Summer 2024

The 2024 fiscal year started off with student visa issuance volumes similar to 2023, but F-1 issuances fell year-over-year during the summer months:

June, July, and August are key issuance months for students planning to start classes in September. However, an average of over 17,800 fewer student visas were issued from June through August 2024 compared to the same time frame in 2023. This reduction was likely caused by a variety of factors, including potentially lower F-1 visa approval rates (as noted above). Student demand may also have been influenced by the through early 2024, as an unfavourable exchange rate could have swayed some students towards more affordable destinations, or caused them to defer their study abroad plans. The lead-up to the American presidential election also began in spring 2024, and the accompanying rhetoric may have also affected some students’ decisions.

2025 is likely to be a year of continued change. Take a closer look at four of our top predictions for how the international sector may evolve.

Indian Students Issued the Most US F-1 Visas in 2024

Six of the top ten student populations that received the most US student visas in 2024 came to the US from Asia. Students from India received the most visas, continuing a three-year trend, followed closely by students from mainland China:

Compared to the 2023 fiscal year, the majority of top international student populations received fewer student visas in 2024. While Indian students were issued 86,000 F-1 visas in 2024, this was only slightly more than the number of visas issued to Indian students in 2021 (80,000), and a significant drop from the heights of 2022 and 2023. If this decline continues, new Indian student populations may be surpassed by new Chinese students in 2025.

In fact, the number of visas issued to students from mainland China appears to have stabilized around the 80,000 mark, after dipping in 2022. While future F-1 application and approval volume data will better outline whether this was caused solely by falling approval rates or a larger decline in applications from Chinese students, this is still a sizeable drop from pre-pandemic levels. If demand has weakened, this could be driven by Chinese students’ evolving expectations amid a slowed domestic economy⁴ and a strong US dollar. Some Chinese students may be choosing other destinations or staying closer to home, but many Chinese academic institutions have also become global powerhouses over the past decade. For example, Tsinghua University ranked 12th worldwide in , followed by Peking University at 13th, along with five other Chinese universities in THE’s top 100 list. These institutions are likely attracting students who might previously have considered studying overseas, and this rising trend of strengthening domestic postsecondary education could influence student flows towards the US in the coming years.

Asian and African Populations Continue to Lead US Student Visa Growth

Students from Asia not only represent the largest new student populations in the US, they are also among the fastest-growing.⁵ Students from five Asian countries were issued at least 25% more F-1 visas in 2024 compared to 2023. Leading the pack are Nepalese students, who collectively received 130% more student visas than they did in 2023 and 114% more than in 2022. But they weren’t the only student population to achieve sustained growth over the past two years:

These fast-growing student populations are a mix of well-established source countries like France, Nepal, and Vietnam, along with a few emerging student populations like those from Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, and Zimbabwe. The recent growth of these student flows towards the US is good news for American institutions: as half of these countries have , they represent strong potential future growth. Urbanization, particularly in eastern Africa and central Asia, will likely also continue to play a key role in driving sustained student interest in, and access to, international study options including the US.

Learn more about which international student populations are driving growth in the US with our deep-dive into Open Doors 2024 data.

Diverse Student Populations See Visa Issuances Slow in 2024

Although F-1 visas issued doesn’t tell the full story of international student demand towards the US, many student populations experienced lower F-1 visa issuances in 2024. Beyond students from India and mainland China, major student populations from many global regions saw a drop in F-1 visas issued compared to 2023:

Iranian students received decade-high numbers of F-1 student visas in 2022 and 2023, before experiencing a 43% decline in 2024. These students’ journeys are complicated by legal factors including , and long-tail ripple effects of the Muslim travel ban enacted in 2018. While President Biden repealed that ban on his first day in office in 2021, that visa processing never returned to pre-ban speeds. Meanwhile, other destinations are becoming increasingly popular among students from Iran: in 2024, .

Likewise, students from India are also seeking out more affordable study destinations like Germany, Poland, and South Korea. In 2024, nearly 43,000 Indian international students alone. Still, despite visa complexities and the higher cost of living, the US remains a top choice for Indian student prioritizing academic prestige and extensive career networks.

Building Towards Continued Growth

As the new Presidential administration establishes itself, and as American institutions face shifting student demands towards more affordable destinations, 2025 could be a telling year for the US’ international education sector. Expected government releases of F-1 visa application and approval rate data for 2024 will clarify whether demand for studying abroad in the US has softened somewhat, or whether a drop-off in F-1 approval rates has limited student inflows even as demand remains high. If approval rates have dropped, heightened demand may not translate into increasing student populations in the coming years. And, if any future policy changes specifically impact approval rates—as we’ve seen with other destinations including Canada and Australia—it’s vital for institutions to clearly communicate about any policy changes affecting both current and future international students. This not only helps students to feel connected to their campus community, it helps them remain confident in their choice of the US as their study destination.

American postsecondary education has a long history of high-demand among international students, and that’s unlikely to change significantly in a short period of time. But it’s important to keep in mind that students also have access to an expanding range of study destinations, many of which are investing in new programs and infrastructure to support their education systems. And, these policy changes and investments are already showing signs of success: countries including , Ireland, and hosted more international students in 2024 than ever before.

As such, it’s vital for American institutions and policymakers to invest strategically in communicating what makes studying in the US special. Whether it’s flexible program options, cutting-edge research opportunities, or the diverse range of people and cultures students can learn from on American campuses, there are many key draws for international students. Amidst a growing crowd of study abroad options, thoughtful outreach and a collaborative approach can help American institutions maintain high global interest in studying in the US over the next decade.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Here and throughout this piece, when a year is stated, it is in reference to a fiscal year unless noted otherwise. Fiscal years in the US run from October to September.

2. As F-1 student visas are the most common visa status used by international students in the US, we’re confining our analysis to that specific visa type. Here and throughout this article, “student visa” refers to F-1 student visas. For reference, the US government has three student visas: F Student visas are academic (for study at an accredited K-12 school, college, or university, or studying English at an English language institute; the study must lead to a degree, diploma, or certificate); J Exchange visas are for participants in an exchange program either at the high school or university level; and M Student visas are for non-academic study (not including language programs), or vocational study or training.

3. The student visa data used throughout this article is from the U.S. Department of State’s and data reports. While the U.S. Department of State advises against aggregating monthly totals as this may not provide an accurate issuance total for the fiscal year to date, our test calculations found an average overcount of just 0.1% across source countries for previous years.

4. Ulrica Lin, CNBC. “.” May 2024.

5. Countries with a minimum of 1,000 student visas issued in 2024.

The post Number of US F-1 Visas Issued Steadies in Fiscal Year 2024 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

On January 24, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) finalized each province and territory will receive for 2025. These caps, along with the national study permit issuance target, provide institutions with a clearer framework for planning in the year ahead—though a few logistical questions remain.

Join us as we dive into Canada’s international student cap allotments for 2025. Find out how many student visa applications each province and territory can accept,¹ our approval forecasts for 2025, and key changes that could reshape Canada’s international education landscape.

Softened Demand from International Students Likely to Continue in 2025

In 2024, Canada’s international education sector was defined by softening international student demand, following the introduction of the country’s application cap. The number of new student approvals dropped 45% last year, outpacing IRCC’s intended 35% reduction by 10 percentage points. This weakening demand occurred across all study levels, including those exempt from the cap.⁴

Based on these current trends, as well as factors influencing global student flow towards Canada, �ǿ�Ӱ��projects that lower demand among new international students will continue throughout 2025:

We anticipate IRCC will approve study permits for about 207,000 new international students in 2025. This would represent a 26% drop from 2024, returning to approval volumes last seen in 2018. However, this fall represents a slower rate of decline than last year’s, partly because 2023 was a high-water mark—meaning there was more room to drop in 2024—and partly due to expectations that softening demand will stabilize and establish a new baseline by summer 2025.

It’s important to note that this forecast only measures new student demand and does not account for study permit extensions, or potential shifts in study permit approval rates. As we detailed last week, approval rates fell to near 50% in 2024, and any changes to this rate could significantly impact our forecast. Additionally, the specific allocation of study permits under the cap feature significant amendments for 2025, including the integration of postgraduate students and a requirement for ‘onshore’ students to acquire a new study permit when changing institutions or study levels. These changes each have the potential to influence student mobility flows, impacting our projections as logistical details become clearer.

How Study Permit Allocations Will Work in 2025

While our forecast estimates the effect of shifting student demand, the caps necessarily limit the supply of study permits available to international students. Putting aside this decreased student demand, what is the direct impact of the caps on the number of study permits available to students hoping to study in Canada?

Canada’s national study permits issued target for 2025—which includes student cohorts that are exempt from the application cap—is 437,000. This would be a 10% decrease from the 2024 target, as . Note, however, that there’s contradicting terminology of “approvals” and “issued” between the 2024 and 2025 targets. While the 2025 target is labeled “study permits issued,” the 2024 target (and the math outlined for that target) was for “study permit approvals.” Study permit approvals and study permits issued are two distinct parts of the student visa funnel.

The table below shows how these targets will be divided out among different study levels, including exempt applicants:

These study permits issued targets inform the number of PAL/TAL applications provinces and territories are allocated. New to 2025, graduate-level students and most onshore students require a PAL/TAL. However, the following groups remain PAL/TAL-exempt:

• K-12 students
• Certain Government of Canada priority groups and vulnerable cohorts (such as francophone students eligible for the )
• Existing study permit holders applying for an extension at the same designated learning institution (DLI) and at the same level of study

Canada’s International Student Cap 2025 Provincial Breakdown

While the overall target for study permits issued decreased for 2025, the inclusion of new student cohorts requiring a PAL/TAL resulted in most provinces and territories receiving higher application allotments compared to 2024. The table below shows the number of applications each province has been allocated for 2025:

The Canadian government revealed back in September that . Specifically, IRCC outlined that at least 12% of each province’s issuance target must be reserved for the graduate level, although this allotment will necessarily decrease the volume of non-graduate visas. On the surface, this explains why the total number of allotments in 2025 is only marginally lower than the 2024 total despite the targeted issuances being 10% lower.

As shown above, the change in allotments across each province and territory is not an even 10% reduction. Newfoundland and Labrador received nearly triple the application allotments for 2025 compared to 2024, and the Northwest Territories were allotted more than double. Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan were also granted significantly more allotments than the previous year, while Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia saw significant reductions. Ontario received the highest reduction overall, accounting for the biggest volume shift.

2025 Caps and Targets Move Closer to Population Share

Why these large differences across provinces? It’s important to remember that the 2024 cap was initially weighted, prior to final adjustments, by . To limit the impact of this change, regions with increased application allotments compared to 2023 were capped at 10% growth, while reductions in other regions were adjusted case-by-case, and then additional top-ups were rolled out to account for each province’s historical approval rates.

These adjustments were a positive step, aligning more closely with sector realities and enabling provinces and institutions to adapt more effectively to the new policies. But those adjustments also meant that gaps remained between the final numbers and the provincial population weights.

By comparison, both the 2025 application allotments and study permits issued targets align more closely with population weighting:

In 2025, the proportion of the total study permit issuance target allocated to nine of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories falls within half a percentage point of their share of the country’s population. And while Alberta’s 10.3% share of 2025 issuances remains nearly two percentage points below its population share, it’s almost two points higher than its 2024 approvals target.

Population share may help explain the significant decrease in Ontario’s application allotments and the increase in Quebec’s. That’s because provinces with low approval rates will need more applications to meet their issuance targets than those with strong approval rates. And as we outlined last week, Ontario was one of only three provinces with an approval rate over 50% in 2024, while Quebec’s approval rate fell to 32%, the lowest of all provinces or territories.⁵

If IRCC continues to base study permit allotments primarily on provincial population share, this approach does not inherently consider factors like institutional capacity or local labour market needs. It also does not factor in recent PGWP policy changes that prioritize labour market fit. As a result, provinces with strong postsecondary institutions or significant employment opportunities for international graduates may not receive allocations that reflect those strengths.

To create a more balanced system, greater foundational support is needed—both to better align allotments with these strengths and to help provinces receiving larger allocations expand their capacity. This includes more efforts to communicate with students about the incentives and opportunities available in those provinces.

Forecasting 2025 Canadian Student Visa Supply Potential

If each province and territory were to reach its PAL/TAL allotment, how many new students would be approved? Based on the latest IRCC data, we’ve forecasted two scenarios for each province’s/territory’s supply potential. This forecast range shows between 253,500 and 265,600 potential new approvals for 2025:⁶

There are two critical aspects of these supply potential forecasts to keep in mind. First, they do not account for historical application and approval volumes. Both forecasts assume each province and territory will reach their application allotment in 2025, and see approval rates similar to the January through October period of 2024.

Second, and most importantly, these forecasts do not account for the inclusion of onshore student applicants. As stated in the 2025 PAL/TAL media release, the . This change will likely have a profound impact on each province and territory: From January through October 2024, there were over 160,000 study permit extension applications for postsecondary studies. The only extension cohort that will continue to be exempt from submitting a PAL/TAL is students applying for an extension for .

But, in general, extension data does not clearly indicate the proportion of applications that this cohort represents. With an approval rate consistently above 90% since 2021, including 94% in 2024, study permit extension applications and approvals are likely to significantly impact an institution’s PAL/TAL allocations early in 2025, potentially creating a competitive first-come, first-served environment that may further diminish new student volumes.

Technology is Helping Institutions Improve Conversion Rates

Faced with changing application volumes, some institutions might consider stepping back from high-demand regions with lower visa approval rates. However, this strategy carries significant risks, including reduced campus diversity, disruptions to student enrollment flows, and limited flexibility to navigate global geopolitical shifts.

A more effective approach is to focus on partnerships that drive strong visa approvals and conversions while ensuring a diverse student body. By working with ApplyBoard, institutions can access cutting-edge tools and expertise that align students with programs tailored to their academic and career aspirations, optimizing both student success and institutional outcomes.

The results speak for themselves. �ǿ�Ӱ��students consistently achieve higher study permit approval rates compared to the national average across Canada’s key source markets:

In 2024, 82% of �ǿ�Ӱ��students were granted study permits—nearly 32 percentage points above the national average. For certain countries, such as Nigeria, the difference was even more pronounced, with �ǿ�Ӱ��students achieving approval rates up to 40 percentage points higher than the national average.

Read more about why working with �ǿ�Ӱ��is an advantage for both students and institutions.

What 2025’s PAL/TAL Application Allotments Mean for Canada’s International Education Sector

With the 2025 PAL/TAL allotments now clear, institutions will need to navigate a more regulated and competitive landscape. The transition to tighter allotments, alongside changes to the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program and the inclusion of postgraduate studies within cap limits, may initially present challenges for attracting top global talent. However, these changes also offer opportunities to enhance long-term sustainability and efficiency within the sector.

Canada continues to be a premier destination for international students, bolstered by one of the world’s strongest post-graduation work programs. Recent updates to the PGWP program reaffirm Canada’s commitment to fostering opportunities for international students, including no additional field of study requirements for master’s and doctoral levels. Additionally, new eligible programs, particularly in education, signal a proactive approach to addressing Canada’s critical skills gaps while supporting student aspirations.

Greater alignment between institutions, provinces, and employers will be key to capitalizing on these strengths. As Canada refines its approach to international education, stronger collaboration on program design, skills development, and employment pathways can help institutions attract top global talent while ensuring students are equipped for success in the workforce. This synergy will not only enhance post-graduation opportunities but also support Canada’s broader international education sector amid softening student demand.

In short, for institutions to thrive in this evolving environment, strategic partnerships will be more important than ever. ApplyBoard’s expertise in recruitment partner training, document verification, and student guidance equips institutions with the tools they need to enhance application quality, increase visa approval rates, and maintain diverse student populations.

As we enter this new chapter, Canada’s international education sector has a chance to reinforce its strengths and embrace new opportunities for growth. By staying adaptable and focused on student success, institutions can continue to provide world-class education to students from around the globe.

For personalized insights and strategies to maximize your institution’s potential in 2025, reach out to your Partner Relations Manager or contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at .

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.

2. This forecast measures the demand from new international students only, and is based on 2024 approval rates and rate of application volume decline. These demand projections do not factor in provincial shares of PALs/TALs and uncertainties remain about the cap’s target shifting from approvals to issued permits, as well as its inclusion of onshore students. Projections are subject to change as more information becomes available.

3. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted.

4. Canada’s 2024 national cap on study permit applications included several exemptions based on program study level. Cap-exempt study levels included primary and secondary school, master’s programs, and doctoral degrees..

5. This approval rate is for all study levels.

6. This supply forecast does not account for historical approval volumes or the impact of including onshore applicants into the cap. The forecast is based on each province’s/territory’s application allotment for 2025 and latest available approval rates.

The post Forecasting Canadian Study Permit Volumes in 2025 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

Canada’s international education sector has weathered the impact of the first year of student caps. As we approach the rollout of Canada’s revised 2025 caps, it’s a critical time to evaluate how demand for Canadian study abroad programs has shifted due to these policy changes.

This past fall, when we analysed study permit data¹ from the first six months of 2024, we projected that processed post-secondary applications would drop by up to 40% over the full year. That prediction was made before the Minister of Immigration announced a further decrease in student caps for the next two years, and prior to significant changes to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program.

Now, with more complete data for 2024,² a clearer picture of the effect of Canada’s international student caps has emerged: Study permit approvals are on track to fall by 45% in 2024, compared to 2023. Read on to find out which study levels and student populations have seen the largest declines, which emerging source markets have maintained growth despite the caps, and more.

Study Permit Volumes Well Below 2024 Caps

The Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (IRCC) set Canada’s 2024 international student caps based on a 35% reduction compared to 2023. After further adjustments were made for , final targets of 552,095 study permit applications and 291,914 study permit approvals for capped study levels were set.³

Yet, even from the early days of the caps, decreased student interest outpaced government estimates. As that decreased interest continued throughout the year, IRCC is now on pace to approve only 280,000 total study permits for full-year 2024:⁴

The total number of study permits processed is set to drop by 35% year-over-year, in line with IRCC’s targets. However, study permit approvals have not kept pace. The projected 280,000 approvals would represent a 45% drop from 2023, outpacing IRCC’s intended reduction by ten percentage points. This would also be the lowest number of study permit approvals in a non-pandemic year since 2019.

This significant drop was felt across all destination provinces, but Ontario and Nova Scotia have experienced the largest impact:

While Ontario institutions accounted for over half of all study permit approvals in 2023, approvals for these schools are projected to fall 55% year-over-year, the highest of any province. This drop results in institutions in Alberta, British Columbia, and Quebec accounting for a larger share of 2024 approvals, although each province is still forecasted to see approvals decline by at least 10,000 compared to 2023.

Four in every five respondents in our latest Recruitment Pulse Survey agreed that Canada’s decisions to limit study permit applications made it a less desirable destination.

Study Permit Approval Rates Fall to 50%

This rebalanced provincial distribution highlights the other main reason for the difference between IRCC targets and actual 2024 trends: approval rates. When Canada’s 2024 caps were introduced, Minister Miller initially detailed that a 60% study permit approval rate was used for all cap calculations. Later, when to encourage student distribution across all provinces, this rate was shifted down to 53%.

However, even taking this reduced 53% approval rate into account, study permit approval rates are highly unlikely to hit IRCC’s target by the end of the year:

Through the first ten months of 2024, the overall study permit approval rate hovered just above 50%. This represented a ten percentage point drop from the same period in 2023. But it’s likely this rate will fall even further once full-year 2024 data is available, based on 2021–2023 trends.⁵ As a result, we expect the average study permit approval rate will fall below 50% for full-year 2024, dropping around four percentage points below IRCC estimates.

This approval rate drop is, in part, driven by a steep decline in study permit approvals for institutions in Ontario, as noted above. Additionally, only three provinces experienced an average approval rate above 50% in Jan–Oct 2024: Alberta (60%), British Columbia (66%), and Ontario (54%). But the national average was ultimately brought down by Quebec’s declining approval rates. Average approval rates for applicants intending to study in Quebec dropped by over ten percentage points in Jan–Oct 2024, falling to just 32%, the lowest provincial approval rate over the last decade.

The average Canadian student visa approval rate for �ǿ�Ӱ��students reached 82% in 2024, nearly 32 percentage points higher than the sector average approval rate.

Cap Impact Felt Across All Study Levels

The downturn in study permit approvals was not limited to study levels directly impacted by the cap.⁶ In fact, based on our projections, study permit approvals across all study levels in 2024 will fall well below IRCC’s intended total approvals for capped study levels alone. Although cap-exempt study levels have experienced more limited approval declines, these broad impacts demonstrate the wide-reaching impact of policy changes on overall student sentimentality about a given destination country.

Number of Study Permit Approvals for Capped Programs Drop by 60%

The primary focus for Canada’s 2024 international student caps was limiting approvals for post-secondary programs.⁷ Under the national cap, up to 292,000 study permits could be approved for these study levels, amounting to a 28% decline compared to 2023.

However, the actual declines realized for these study levels will likely far surpass government estimates:

Across capped study levels, Canadian colleges have faced the starkest approval declines. In the first ten months of 2024, less than 91,000 study permits were approved for international college students, down from over 210,000 during the same months in 2023. Barring a significant increase in approvals during November and December, it’s likely that new international student populations at Canadian colleges dropped by 60% in 2024.

By comparison, visa approvals for capped university studies were marginally more stable year-over-year. New study permit approvals for international undergraduate students fell from over 57,000 in Jan–Oct 2023 to under 34,000 in Jan–Oct 2024. This 41% decrease more closely aligns with the cap’s intended reduction target, but it still represents the lowest number of approvals for undergraduate students since 2017.⁸

Earlier this year, we estimated that 231K post-secondary study permits would be approved in 2024. Based on updated IRCC data, that projection remains accurate: 192K post-secondary study permits were approved in Jan–Oct 2024, which we now estimate to rise to 221K by the end of December.

Cap-Exempt Programs Not Exempt from Shifting Student Sentiment

Four study levels were noted as exempt when Canada’s international student caps were first announced: primary and secondary school as well as master’s and doctoral programs. IRCC estimated that 140,000 study permits would be approved across these levels in 2024, based on totals from the 2023 application period.

However, approvals for these cap-exempt visas remained more than 25% lower in Jan–Oct 2024 versus the same period in 2023:

Approvals for secondary students remained the most stable year-over-year, with approvals falling by nearly 20% over the first ten months of 2024. However, declining approval volumes reached around 30% for both primary and master’s students, and doctoral student volumes continued their persistent year-over-year declines.

Given that many international primary and secondary students come to Canada with parents who are studying at the post-secondary levels, these drops reflect the knock-on effects of the 2024 caps. Despite these study levels being exempt from the cap, students have also been influenced by negative sentiment about Canada’s education sector, which in turn has further limited student flows.

This downturn in postgraduate student volumes means the impact of including these study levels in the 2025–2026 student caps may be somewhat mitigated. As we detailed last October, we project that approximately 263,000 study permit approvals will be divided among the provinces under the 2025 caps, and at least 12% of these approvals needs to be reserved for postgraduate students. As a result, we anticipate at least 32,000 approvals will be set aside for master’s and doctoral applicants, and this figure closely aligns with Jan–Oct 2024 postgraduate approvals.

Cap Influence on Key Student Populations

Interestingly, the 2024 caps have not had a uniform impact on Canada’s international student populations. Most student groups experienced year-over-year declines, but some established and emerging populations went against that trend.

Of the 61 student groups with more than 300 study permit approvals in Jan–Oct 2024, 40 saw year-over-year approval volumes fall by 20% or more. But eight student groups are on pace to grow in 2024, despite the caps:

Student populations from Senegal, Guinea, and Vietnam all grew through the first ten months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. This impressive growth signals that these student populations may be a key source of diversity across Canadian campuses during the cap era.

By contrast, declining student populations were more widespread. New approval drops exceeding 20% included eight of the top ten student populations from 2023. Additionally, five of these student groups saw their new approvals at least halved year-over-year. Students from India, Nigeria, and the Philippines, who collectively accounted for more than half (54%) of all study permit approvals through the first ten months of 2023, only represented 44% of all approvals through the same period in 2024.

Ghana remains poised to help drive international student diversity in Canada, despite cap impacts. While approvals for Ghanaian students decreased by 11% in Jan–Oct 2024 vs. Jan–Oct 2023, they remained nearly 175% higher than approval figures from the same period in 2022.

How Institutions Can Improve Conversion Rates and Maximize Diversity with ApplyBoard

While some institutions may view these shifting volumes as a reason to move away from high-demand, low-approval markets, we strongly recommend against this shift. Such a move could significantly reduce campus diversity, jeopardize student flows, and limit institutional ability to weather geopolitical shifts.

Institutions should instead focus on working exclusively with partners that drive higher conversion and visa approvals, without sacrificing diversity to manage cap allocations. By working with ApplyBoard, institutions can take advantage of our innovative platform that steers applicants toward programs that suit their academic journey.

Across Canada’s major student populations, �ǿ�Ӱ��students have significantly higher study permit approval rates compared to other applicants:

In 2024, �ǿ�Ӱ��students were approved for their study permit in 82% of cases, exceeding the national all-applicant average by nearly 32 percentage points. In some cases, �ǿ�Ӱ��student approval rates were nearly 40 percentage points higher than the average for students from those countries, such as Nigeria.

Why are ApplyBoard’s Visa Approval Rates Higher?

Over the past ten years, �ǿ�Ӱ��has taken concrete steps to enhance transparency, integrity, and technological innovation throughout the student application process:

• AI-Powered Program Matching: Our platform steers applicants toward programs tailored to their academic journey, providing tailored program recommendations with prediction scores based on the student profile and preferences.
• Application Pre-Screening: Our pre-screening process ensures applications are complete, legible, and free of potential red flags, helping to maximize conversion success. Half of all applications submitted to �ǿ�Ӱ��are not passed on to institutions, ensuring admissions teams spend time reviewing only strong and complete applications, streamlining the admissions process.
• Recruitment Partner Vetting and Training: �ǿ�Ӱ��vets and monitors recruitment partners for adherence to strict quality controls, including response times, conversion rates, and student satisfaction. We also provide training and up-to-date information on school programs, requirements, intake data, and scholarship opportunities on one platform.

The result of these efforts is that many �ǿ�Ӱ��students put forth stronger applications to IRCC. �ǿ�Ӱ��students are better equipped to write a genuine statement of purpose for their study permit application, and they are more likely to submit complete, high-quality applications, enhancing their approval rates.

By partnering with ApplyBoard, your institution can help mitigate the pressures of increased conversion and ensure your student populations remain stable, vibrant, and diverse. We also offer the ability to send offers-in-principle and consolidate tuition deposit processes, reducing the resources needed to administrate your international student program while ensuring cap spaces are allocated to students who are very likely to enroll.

What We Expect for Canada’s International Education Sector in 2025

On January 22, 2025, Canada will transition from initial cap targets to a further 10% reduction. As we’ve detailed previously, these limitations along with changes to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program and the inclusion of postgraduate studies in Canada’s 2025 and 2026 caps could limit the ability of Canadian institutions to attract talented students from around the globe.

Yet Canada retains some key advantages that may help the sector level-off in 2025. Canada maintains one of the world’s strongest post-graduation work programs, with recent changes to the PGWP program emphasizing that there will be no additional field of study requirements for master’s and doctoral levels. Some new programs have been added to eligible PGWP fields as well, recognizing the growing need for educators across Canada. And, the inclusion of postgraduate programs into the 2025 caps may help institutions streamline application processing.⁹

Government policy changes in 2024 have reshaped Canada’s international education landscape, but 2025 could be a year of building stability. ApplyBoard’s proven track record as a sector leader in agent training and document verification can help institutions remain efficient and agile, increasing conversion likelihood from diverse student populations.

For data-backed guidance on how you can maximize conversion rates, please reach out to your Partner Relations Manager, or contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.

2. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to October 2024. All figures associated with full-year 2024 are �ǿ�Ӱ��projections based on Jan–Oct 2024 figures and Nov–Dec trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

3. For the 2024 year, cap-exempt study levels (which are not included in these counts) include primary, secondary, and postgraduate students.

4. While the 2024 student caps did not come into effect until January 22, 2024, and will extend until January 21, 2025, throughout this article we use January 2024 pre-cap student volumes as a proxy for expected student volumes in January 2025.

5. This assumes that study permit approval rate trends hold true to what has occurred over the past three years, where approval rates have fallen in November and December as shown.

6. Canada’s 2024 national cap on study permit applications included several exemptions based on program study level. Cap-exempt study levels included primary and secondary school, master’s programs, and doctoral degrees.

7. Not including master’s and doctoral degrees, although the Minister of Immigration announced in October 2024 that these study levels will be integrated into Canada’s 2025–2026 student caps.

8. Excluding 2020, which was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

9. Exclusion of particular study levels in the 2024 cap may have had the potential to create further limits on capped study levels. For example, if postgraduate student levels had far exceeded initial estimations, it is unclear if this could have necessitated stricter limits on undergraduate applications.

The post What Were the Impacts of Canada’s 2024 International Student Cap? appeared first on ApplyBoard.

2024 was filled with change across the international education sector, and it’s likely 2025 will continue this trend. Student interests continue to shift to a wider range of destinations, new governments and policy decisions are influencing student choice, and many Anglophone destinations are feeling the effects of lower student interest.

Building off our 2025 Trends Report, we’re leveraging the latest information—including our internal data and surveying tools—to predict how the international education sector may evolve through the year ahead.

Here are our top international education sector predictions for 2025.

1. Government Policy and Turnover Will Shape Student Mobility

From campaign rhetoric through the policy changes that follow, elections have wide-ranging effects on how international students see different study destinations. Let’s look at how some recent and upcoming elections, as well as key policy changes, may shift the sector in 2025.

Australia

The next federal election in Australia will be held on or before May 17, 2025, so expect to hear soon how different parties plan to work with the country’s education sector after a very busy 2024.

Over the past year, the Australian government implemented and proposed several significant policy changes affecting international students. Some changes limited visa eligibility, like reducing the maximum age for a Temporary Graduate visa from 50 to 35 or ending the ability to switch from a Temporary Graduate to a Student visa while in Australia. More substantially, the on international student enrolment created uncertainty for prospective students, leading to declining student sentiment about Australia as a destination.

Cooling student sentiment may also lead some students to consider nearby destinations instead. In our first ApplyInsights article for 2025, we highlighted how the international education sector in New Zealand has been growing quickly, perhaps (in part) by attracting students dissuaded by rising costs and changing policies in Australia.

Canada

While Canada wasn’t scheduled to elect its next federal government until October 2025, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation in early January means an election is now possible as early as May. While the for some time, many factors will come into play when Canadians go to the polls later this year.

Whatever the outcome of a Canadian election in 2025, most experts agree that further significant policy changes affecting the international student journey are unlikely, particularly as the sector is still adjusting to the caps placed on study permit applications in early 2024.

The 2024 caps set the target number of approved study permits at 485,000. For 2025, the cap was reduced to 437,000 while including postgraduate students—who were previously exempt. However, as we predicted in Fall 2024, the caps caused a downturn in student interest, contributing to study permit applications decreasing to the extent that the cap target wasn’t reached. This drop in demand also led to widespread concern from Canadian institutions, many of whom have been forced to make difficult decisions about staffing and program offerings as student numbers have declined. In the time since the caps were implemented, some Canadian institutions have seen international student enrolment drop by as much as 50%.¹

United Kingdom

In early 2024, international student interest in the UK dipped as the sector adjusted to new limits on dependents and questions about whether the popular Graduate Route would persist. However, possibly inspired by the new Labour government’s and policy turbulence in Canada and Australia, external perception of the UK had recovered by the fall: In our latest �ǿ�Ӱ��Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey, the UK placed second to the US for its attractiveness as a destination.

A recent Times Higher Education (THE) article also : both issuances of acceptance letters and international student deposits are higher for the January 2025 intake than they were for 2024’s January intake.

United States

In 2025, former President Donald Trump will return to the Oval Office. It has been difficult to miss the calls from several American colleges and universities for their before inauguration, uncertain of how the new administration will proceed. From 2015 to 2020, international student visa applications dropped year-over-year, and F-1 visa issuances slowed compared to the early 2010s:²

Many experts attributed part of this drop to some of the Trump Administration’s rhetoric and policies, which were less welcoming to certain international student populations.³

While foreign enrolment has recovered significantly since, and President Trump expressed at times a more welcoming outlook on international students during the 2024 election cycle, whether F-1 visa applications will continue to rebound remains to be seen. It’s interesting to note that, in the weeks following the 2024 election, , which may also contribute to changing campus compositions in the US and elsewhere.

2. Non-Anglophone Markets Will Capture a Larger Percentage of the Global Student Population

As policy and government changes give some students pause, and fluctuating currencies make some destinations less attainable, we predict international students will choose a wider range of study destinations than ever before in the coming year.

As we highlighted in our 2025 Trends Report, China and India’s growing investment in post-secondary education may not only encourage more students to study domestically, but also attract others from nearby regions. This includes some of the world’s largest international student populations such as students from Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Beyond China and India, earlier this month, we highlighted Chile, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, and Spain as fast-growing study destinations. But they’re not the only ones set to redefine the international education landscape in 2025. Let’s look at some of the other places we think will be top-of-mind for students.

Germany

Many future students are looking to mainland Europe for study destinations. Among them, Germany has surged ahead, its international enrolments growing steadily:

For the 2023/24 winter semester, international enrolments grew by 3% year-over-year. This growth was supported by policy changes that support international students, like the (SIA), introduced in March 2024. The Act doubled the weekly hours that non-EU international students could work while class is in session from 10 to 20. The SIA also implemented new rules that improve labour market access for grads in growing fields like IT and nursing.

Building on this momentum and the recent German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) projections,⁴ it’s reasonable to predict Germany will exceed 400,000 enrolled international students in the 2024/25 academic year.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s , introduced in 2016, aims to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy through strategic development of key sectors, with post-secondary education among them. Through Vision 2030, the Saudi Arabian government plans to attract top talent to its universities and build a global education hub.

Vision 2030 is bolstered by new scholarships, partnerships with global universities and government entities, and research programs in high-demand areas. Recently, the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia and its Education Minister that would enable American graduate students to study in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Meanwhile, social reforms enabling women to drive and travel independently have supported women’s participation in the workforce, which grew from 17% in 2017 to 34% in 2023.⁵ Of that, government data notes just over one-third of these women are in tech roles—which is on par with the global average⁶ and may encourage more diverse students to consider this rising study destination.

Malaysia

With a relatively low cost of living (estimated to be half as expensive as the US),⁷ affordable tuition, and , Malaysia is attracting the attention of many international students. Beyond the official language of Malay, , so many international students may feel at home faster than they might in a purely Anglophone community.

In 2024, demand from East Asian international students accelerated, per a recent report from ICEF. While interest levels from students in other parts of the world remained relatively stable, . This interest may be driven in part by some Chinese students being offered access to Malaysia’s 12-month Graduate Pass, which allows new grads to work in Malaysia after their studies.

The Malaysian government also recently announced its adoption of a centralized system which will use algorithms to verify applicants’ qualifications and certificates immediately. This system aims to speed up application turnaround times, thus improving prospective students’ experiences, while also boosting confidence in key documents’ veracity.⁸

3. Study Choices Will Align Further with In-Demand Fields

As many destinations train international students to replace a rapidly retiring workforce, their governments are prioritizing specific programs or courses that align with high-demand careers for international students. This is not new: incentives like the STEM OPT extension in the US , but it’s something we saw happening more often in 2024 and we expect that to continue in 2025.

For example, to support its goal of attracting 300,000 international students by 2027, the Study Korea 300k project is reshaping South Korea’s education sector. It has designated “special education internationalization zones” for global talent and in STEM. Locally, the city of Busan’s aims to boost the percentage of international students in STEM programs in its post-secondary institutions from 12% to 30% by 2028. Having these students stay in Korea matters, too. One goal of Study Busan 30K is to have at least 40% of international grads transition to working or job-seeker visas.

Elsewhere, the Canadian government exempted some bachelor degree students from new limits on spousal work permit eligibility, which may make it easier for those students to study in Canada and bring their families. Nursing, engineering, and education students’ spouses could still apply for a work permit, where partners of undergraduate students in other programs would not be eligible. Canada also redefined which study programs could lead to a Canadian post-graduation work permit.

Search Data Reveals Increased Alignment with In-Demand Fields

While there are always going to be students who follow their dreams, policy changes like those outlined above affect how viable different programs appear as study opportunities. Plus, changing levels of demand for specific workers means some sectors are more likely to hire new grads, which can influence student decisions about what to study. For example, in line with growing demand for health care workers, 2024 �ǿ�Ӱ��platform search data showed that interest in health sciences was rising:

In fact, nearly one in five searches by Nigerian students were related to health studies from January through July 2024. Our search platform data showed that several student populations were more interested in health studies this year compared to previous years, which may stem both from their generation’s desire for meaningful work and an understanding of which programs can prepare them for steady, rewarding careers.

In 2025, we expect students to show even more interest in health, engineering, and science courses than they did in 2024.

4. Academic Institutions May Leverage New Partnerships and Become More Specialized

In line with the trends above, students are not the only ones affected by policy changes. As institutions weather the , many are looking for different and innovative ways to offer in-demand courses.

While there is no single solution to these challenges, some institutions may seek to establish new partnerships with other institutions, forge stronger partnerships with local or global industry, or consolidate program offerings.

With fewer international students, some critical programs may be offered at fewer institutions, or require institutions to work together to run them. Courses that require lab space or specialized machinery, which can be more expensive for institutions to maintain, are often in the skilled trades and health sciences.

On the other hand, some institutions may seek to solve funding hurdles by working with industry as a funder. In the US, over the last decade, research deals between universities and American companies have expanded quickly. Many companies have reduced their research spending, and lean on academic institutions to fill that role.⁹

point to how working together gives both colleges and companies access to the best minds (both students and researchers, as well as potential mentorship from established professionals), career opportunities for students, and industry funding making more early-stage research possible. These partnerships are not without challenges, however. Challenges like perceptions of incompatible priorities (balancing education and commercial interests), transactional relationships, patent challenges, or unclear intellectual property ownership all require deft navigation and negotiation.

Whether in industry partnerships or course rescoping, the effects of these potential changes are significant. As such, these are shifts that won’t happen overnight. But, we expect to see more innovative approaches like these in 2025 and beyond.

Upcoming ApplyInsights Content

This year, we’ll cover all of these trends and more in our ApplyInsights articles. Some of the topics we’ll explore over the next few months include:

• Shifts in Study Permit Volumes in Canada
• �ǿ�Ӱ��Search Platform Trends in 2024
• Tracking Student Sentiment with the Spring 2025 Pulse Surveys

Our team will also share our top insights in short videos that you can catch up on during a coffee break or in-between meetings. Every month, our CEO & Co-Founder Meti Basiri will take a quick look at policy updates and key trends in international education in his .

Subscribe to ApplyBoard’s and channels to catch our latest video content.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Moira MacDonald, University Affairs. “.” Dec. 16, 2024.

2. U.S. Department of State, . Accessed Jan. 2024.

3. David L. Di Maria, The Conversation, “.” Nov. 19, 2020.

4. ICEF Monitor, “.” Jan. 2025.

5. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, . Accessed Jan. 2024.

6. WomenTech Network, “.” Accessed Jan. 2024.

7. My Life Elsewhere, . Accessed Jan. 2024.

8. Kim Martin, The PIE, “.” Jan. 13, 2024.

9. Kenneth R. Lutchen, HBR. “.” Jan. 24, 2018.

The post 4 International Education Predictions for 2025 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

In our 2025 Trends Report, we highlighted that international students have more study destination options than ever before. The “Big Four” Anglophone markets—Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK—faced more competition to attract international students last year, with established and emerging destinations in Europe and Asia positioning themselves as attractive, welcoming alternatives.

This shift was also evident in our 2024 Fall Student Pulse Survey. Our results revealed that one in every three respondents were considering an alternative destination in addition to the “Big Four.”

With this in mind, we’re turning to the 2024 update from . Project Atlas, a global research initiative studying post-secondary student migration, is the leading authority on global student mobility statistics. Where are students choosing to study in the post-pandemic landscape? Read on to find out the top trends from Project Atlas’s 2024 reporting year.

From the outset, it’s important to highlight that Project Atlas data is by reporting year, not calendar year.¹ This can create some inconsistencies with the data, especially when comparing data between different countries.²

Top International Destinations in the Post-Pandemic Landscape

Project Atlas’ 2024 report shows that 6.9 million international students pursued tertiary studies in 2022—an 8% year-over-year increase—demonstrating the continued growth of global student mobility in international education.

In their 2020 report, Project Atlas outlined that 47% of international students pursued education in one of the “Big Four” Anglophone countries. Four years later, this was down to 45%:

That two percentage point shift is reflected in the growth of destinations comprising “all others”. Inbound students to these alternative destinations grew from 34% to 36% over this period. While 2% may not seem like a lot, it is reflective of hundreds of thousands of international students.

Expect this trend to accelerate once reporting year 2025 data is released. Due to lagging data, the 2024 report shows significant growth in enrolments across Canada, Australia, and the UK. However, more timely data indicates these destinations trended downward during the 2024 calendar year. And with destinations across Europe and Asia expanding their student offerings, destinations outside the “Big Four” are likely to gain an even larger share of international student interest as the reporting years catch up to the present-day shifts.

Top Five Fastest-Growing Destinations for Post-Secondary International Students

As policy changes reshaped the international education landscape throughout 2024, one question stood out: where are post-secondary students heading beyond Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK? Despite the differences in per country data reporting, Project Atlas provides us a key roadmap to answering this question.

The table below highlights the five fastest-growing destination countries according to Project Atlas’ 2024 report:³

New Zealand led the pack with a striking 49% year-over-year growth, setting the pace for international education’s shifting landscape. Poland followed with a solid 23% increase, while Mexico (+16%) and Chile (+12%) continued to cement their positions as rising destinations. Spain’s 10% growth may round out the top five, but its steady climb signals increasing momentum in Southern Europe’s appeal to international students.

What stands out is the diverse representation of regions globally, with the top five including Oceania, Central Europe, Southern Europe, and Latin America (LATAM). Let’s dive deeper into some of the trends in each of these countries.

New Zealand’s Comeback as a Popular Destination

Per Project Atlas, New Zealand had 36,500 inbound post-secondary students in the 2024 reporting year:

The 49% growth of inbound students observed over the last reporting year was an encouraging reversal of a downward trend that occurred from 2020 to 2023. And recent news suggests this positive momentum will continue into future reporting years. In December 2024, the Honorable Penny Simmonds shared that total enrolments between January and August of that year had already surpassed full-year 2023 total, with .

Another reason to expect further positive momentum in future years is New Zealand’s commitment to expanding its international education sector. In August 2024, Education New Zealand (ENZ) set a target of 100,000 international enrolments by 2027.⁴ ENZ also . And as we explored in the 2025 Trends Report, the destinations and institutions that embrace the digital wave will be the ones to thrive as artificial intelligence further shapes the future of education.

Although New Zealand student visa application fees doubled in October 2024, they remained over 50% lower than Australia’s.⁵

Poland’s Ascent in Central European Education

Amid shifting student mobility patterns in Central Europe, Poland joined the 100,000 inbound post-secondary students club in the 2024 Project Atlas report:⁶

Poland’s two largest international student populations come from Ukraine and Belarus. As such, it’s unsurprising to see a significant increase of inbound students from these countries following the war in Ukraine.

In the 2022 reporting year, 38,500 Ukrainian students and 9,700 Belarusian students pursued education in Poland. Two reporting years later, the number of inbound students grew to 48,000 and 12,000, respectively. That’s a growth of 25% in Ukrainian students and 23% in Belarusian students over the two year period.⁷

We also expect to see Poland accelerate its Indian student enrolment in coming years. In July 2024, India’s Polish embassy introduced a new system for Indian students to submit their study visa applications.⁸ This simplified process should help simplify visa processing for Indian students, potentially boosting student interest and applications.

In August 2024, the Polish government announced that it would not be issuing study visas to international students without high school diploma verification.⁹ This decision was made to help bolster the graduation rate, which previous reports cited as 37% for international students over the past decade.

Mexico’s Rise as a LATAM Student Hub

Mexico has quickly become a leading destination country in LATAM, trailing only Argentina in inbound students in reporting year 2024:¹⁰

Nearly 62,200 international students pursued their education in Mexico in the 2024 reporting year, an increase of 16% year-over-year. Mexico attracted 25,300 students from the US in the reporting year 2024, up 18% over the previous period. And over 20,900 students from across South America pursued education in Mexico in 2024, 13% more than in 2023.¹¹

With the right infrastructure investments and strategic recruitment, Mexico could significantly expand its capacity to host more international students. That’s because, in reporting years 2023 and 2024, international students made up just 1% of Mexico’s higher education population. For comparison, competitor Argentina increased its proportion of international students in higher ed from 4% to 5% over this period.

Chile’s Booming Growth in International Enrolment

Like Mexico, Chile is a fast-rising LATAM destination with the potential to continue expanding student capacity:¹²

Over the last five reporting years, inbound post-secondary students to Chile have grown 450%. A major contributor to this increase is Chile’s booming Venezuelan student population. Since 2019, Venezuela has risen from Chile’s fourth-largest international cohort to its largest. Over 5,900 Venezuelan students pursued an education in Chile during the 2024 reporting year, representing a staggering 1,300% growth over five years.

This surge highlights Chile’s growing appeal as a destination for international education. Indeed, Chile attracted large numbers of students from across Latin America according to Project Atlas’ 2024 report, including from Peru (4,980 students), Colombia (3,790), Bolivia (1,920), and Ecuador (1,750).

Spain’s Surge as a Southern European Hotspot

Spain is on the rise as one of Europe’s fastest-growing destinations, even as it competes with giants like the UK, France, and Germany:

Spain is a growing hub of international education for students from across many European countries. According to Project Atlas’ 2024 report, student populations from France (17,950) and Italy (16,450) led the way, followed by students from the US (9,260) and Germany (9,240). In addition, Spanish institutions have benefitted from rising student mobility in Spanish-speaking countries in the Americas, attracting over 9,000 Colombian students in the reporting year 2024.

Additionally, during the summer of 2024, Indian and Spanish universities signed an agreement to promote collaboration between higher education institutions in the two countries.¹³ If this collaboration enhances Spain’s appeal among Indian students, it could significantly accelerate growth in international enrolments given the larger number of Indian students who study abroad every year.

Looking Ahead

The data from Project Atlas’ 2024 report reflects the evolving nature of international education and the increasing competitiveness among destination countries. While the “Big Four” Anglophone markets continue to attract the largest share of international students, the rising prominence of countries such as New Zealand, Poland, Mexico, Chile, and Spain signals a diversification of options for global learners.

This shift emphasizes the role of policy, infrastructure investment, and international partnerships in driving student mobility. Destinations that actively address affordability, accessibility, and digital transformation will be well-positioned to capture growing demand in the years ahead. By staying attuned to these trends and aligning strategies with evolving student priorities, institutions and governments can continue to foster growth in international education on a global scale.

As highlighted in our 2025 Trends Report, the evolving landscape of global student mobility calls for greater adaptability from institutions in established destination markets. With international students increasingly exploring alternatives beyond the “Big Four,” institutions must refine their recruitment strategies, enhance student experiences, and address evolving policy environments to remain competitive. By aligning with changing student priorities and emphasizing long-term value, institutions can better position themselves to attract and retain international talent in this shifting landscape.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Project Atlas data is provided by in-country partners involved in the international education sector, including government departments and NGOs, on a voluntary basis. As a result, data is not available for all countries for all years. Additionally, each country calculates post-secondary student numbers using different methodologies, meaning it is not possible to uniformly compare data from all countries. Despite these challenges, Project Atlas is one of the few global initiatives to provide clarity into global student flows.

2. For example, the 2024 data release shows 1.1 million international students in the US. This aligns with the 2023/24 Open Doors data, released in November 2024, which includes both enrolled students and those working in OPT programs. But Project Atlas’s figure of 367,578 students in Germany aligns with Germany’s 2022/23 winter semester enrolments, despite also releasing in November 2024.

3. Note that the Russia hosted 14% more international students in reporting year 2024 compared to the previous year. This would make Russia the fourth fastest-growing destination outside of the “Big Four.” However, this figure comes from UNESCO, whereas the rest of the data comes from a Project Atlas Partner. Due to this, in the interest of consistency, we’ve omitted Russia from the table.

4. ICEF, . August 2027.

5. ICEF, . August 2024.

6. Earliest available data on Project Atlas about inbound students to Poland is for reporting year 2019.

7. Note that much of this growth took place in the 2023 reporting year. From reporting years 2022 to 2023, the number of students from these two countries grew by nearly 11,700, alongside year-over-year increases from most other top source countries. However, the overall total for 2023 reflects an increase of just 1,200 inbound students. Without more detailed access to Project Atlas’s data, it’s unclear why significant growth at the country level isn’t mirrored in the aggregate total. For this reason, we believe comparing reporting years 2022 to 2024 offers a more accurate reflection of broader trends..

8. The PIE, . July 2024.

9. The PIE, . August 2024.

10. Note that the missing data for reporting years 2016, and 2018–2020, are due to lack of data availability from Project Atlas.

11. In the Project Atlas , Mexico is the only destination country with inbound students listed by region—South America, Central America, Europe—rather than by individual country. Additionally, appears to return incorrect data. For example, it shows only 192 inbound students from the US for reporting year 2023, compared to 21,395 in that year’s infographic.

12. Note that data from the Project Atlas and its associated does not match. For example, for reporting year 2024, the infographic shows 22,360 inbound students while the partner data page shows 43,000. We have referred to the infographic data here as it aligns more closely to data from other external sources: Chile’s ministry of education hosts an OECD article that says , which aligns closely with Project Atlas’s reporting year 2020.

13. The PIE, . July 2024.

The post What Were the Fastest-Growing Destinations for International Students in 2024? appeared first on ApplyBoard.

While many of the top English language destinations for international students have been reshaped by policy changes in 2024, smaller countries are seeing encouraging signs of growth. Over the past year, we’ve seen increasing interest in Irish higher education, buoyed by rising student demand for alternative destinations with lower cost of living and strong post-study work opportunities.

This rising interest helped Irish international student enrolment hit a new high-water mark in 2023/24, surpassing 40,000 students for the first time in an academic year. Today, we’re unpacking new student data from Ireland’s Higher Education Authority (HEA) to explore some of the trends shaping this growing demand. We’ll look at international enrolment levels, the top student populations attending Irish institutions, popular fields of study, and more.

Another Record Year for International Education in Ireland

Ireland’s higher education sector has seen strong and persistent post-pandemic recovery, with rising demand from international students every year. Ireland has now achieved three consecutive record years of growth, eclipsing the 40,000 enrolments mark for the first time:

Since the end of the 2020/21 academic year, the number of international students enrolled in Ireland has climbed steadily, rising by 50% over the past three years. From 2022/23 to 2023/24, international enrolment in Ireland grew by nearly 15%, surpassing the 12% growth observed in the prior year. This upward trajectory suggests that Ireland’s higher education sector is poised for sustained growth as global student demand for studying abroad strengthens

Importantly, Ireland’s international student population growth has occurred at both the undergraduate and postgraduate student level. While undergraduate enrolments increased by 8% year-over-year, postgraduate enrolments surged by almost 25%. At this pace, international postgraduate students will outnumber international undergraduates in Ireland by the end of the 2024/25 academic year.

This means that the future of higher education in Ireland is increasingly composed of students planning to enhance their education, either to increase their job prospects or hone their skills. With , international students in related fields may be well-poised to fill critical labour market gaps.

Ireland’s Top International Student Populations in 2023/24

As we predicted last year, Indian students have moved to the forefront of demand for Irish higher education. While American students were the largest international student population in 2022/23, they were soundly surpassed by Indian students over the last 12 months:

The 2023/24 academic year marks the first time India claims top spot on this list, after a remarkable 49% growth year-over-year. As a result, Indian students accounted for 18% of all international students in Ireland last year. This expansion occurs at a time when many of the ‘Big Four’ destinations—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States—are experiencing slowdowns or declines in Indian student numbers.

Beyond India, student populations from the US and China remain significant cohorts for Irish institutions. Both markets saw their respective student populations in Ireland increase by over 10% compared to their 2022/23 numbers. Along with students from the UK—whose numbers declined slightly in 2023/24—these four major student populations represent 50% of all international enrolments in Irish higher education.

When comparing the growth trends of these four top student flows, the UK decrease stands out in stark contrast:

Student populations from India, the US, and China reached all-time highs in 2023/24. For China and the US, this meant surpassing pre-pandemic high-water marks. But for India, student flows to Ireland have nearly doubled since their pre-pandemic highs, marking 80% growth between 2019/20 and 2023/24. However, expectations of future acceleration may be more limited as India continues to invest in its own education sector.

At the same time, the American student population is likely to grow over the next two years. Since Donald Trump was re-elected to the American presidency in November, . If the number of American students in Ireland were to increase in turn, and Indian student population growth were to slow, Americans could be the largest international student population in Ireland in 2025.

Diverse Growth for Ireland’s Higher Education Sector

While the UK is likely to remain in Ireland’s top four international student populations for higher education in the coming years, it’s not guaranteed. Institutions across Ireland are seeing increased interest from students from nearly every region of the world, including Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe:

While students from across Europe have been the fastest-growing populations in previous years, 2023/24 shows that Irish campuses are diversifying. Mexico, Türkiye, Romania, Indonesia, and Germany are all new entrants onto the list of Ireland’s 10 fastest-growing international student populations, compared to 2022/23.

In fact, Mexico and Türkiye aren’t just new to the list, they’re leading it. Student populations from these two countries were the only ones to surpass India in terms of relative growth over the last twelve months, though their overall populations remain much smaller. But if their numbers continue to grow, these emerging populations could become an important source of diversity for Irish institutions.

Germany is the only source country on this list, beyond India, with over 1,000 students enrolled in Irish higher education in 2023/24. Increased interest from German students—along with higher numbers of Polish, Czechian, and Romanian students—likely reflect a continuing trend of increased student mobility from within the European Union (EU), thanks to several .

This rising interest from European students is also likely a byproduct of UK universities charging EU students full international student fees after Brexit.² This decision means that Irish institutions are often more affordable options for European students, with the added benefit of remaining relatively close to home.

Top Fields of Study in Ireland

When we assess student interest in different fields of study, increased demand for information technology (ICT) courses stands out:

While nearly all fields of study had higher enrolment numbers in the 2023/24 academic year, compared to 2022/23, this is somewhat a result of higher student populations overall. That said, there are two main stories that stand out here: slower growth in health and engineering, and rising demand for ICT.

The number of international students enrolled in Irish ICT programs increased by over 65% in 2023/24, far outpacing all other fields of study. If this increase repeats next year, ICT could become the most popular field of study for international students in Ireland. As Ireland is home to regional headquarters of many top tech companies like Google, LinkedIn, Pfizer, and Microsoft, the high demand for ICT studies aligns with Ireland’s strong market need for ICT graduates.

But Ireland’s labour market——is also in need of . Despite these critical skill shortages, international students are demonstrating lower interest in these fields of study. For Ireland’s higher education sector, these fields should be a critical focus in the coming year.

To attract more students to these programmes, Irish institutions should emphasize the growing opportunities for post-graduation employment in these fields across Europe. Additionally, institutions should look to collaborate with innovative corporations in Ireland to create internship and other employment pathway programs that align student success with labour market needs. Given the increased global demand for these fields, Irish institutions should also highlight the more affordable cost of living in Ireland. As other destination countries reinforce their plans to align study programs with labour market vacancies, competition for students in these fields will intensify, highlighting the importance of thoughtful action now.

Postgraduate Programmes On the Rise in Ireland

When it comes to the study levels international students pursue, postgraduate degrees are on pace to eclipse undergraduate degrees in the coming years:

As in 2022/23, postgraduate students accounted for around half of all international enrolments at Irish institutions in 2023/24. However, international postgraduate students are increasingly pursuing master’s degrees over other forms of study. International master’s students accounted for nearly one third of all Irish international students in 2023/24, up from less than 21% in 2016/17.

This growing demand is likely tied to students’ growing concern around study abroad costs, and aligning their studies with post-study work options. For international graduates, Ireland’s permits a one-year stay for new grads at the undergraduate or higher diploma levels, while master’s, postgraduate diploma, and doctoral degree holders can enjoy a two-year work opportunity.

Ireland a Growing Destination for International Students

The persistent growth of Ireland’s international higher education sector is an encouraging sign for the sector’s future sustainability. Barring any significant global dynamics further reshaping student mobility in the next academic year, we expect Ireland to set another high-water mark in 2024/25.

Its increased student population diversity is one of the reasons we’re confident Ireland will continue to see larger international student populations. By attracting students from all over the world, Irish institutions can be better insulated from individual geopolitical shifts. Also, Ireland benefits from broader patterns of shifting student mobility, including policies which continue to limit student mobility to the ‘Big Four’ and evolving political sentiment in key source countries like the US.

The ongoing growth of international education in Ireland seems all but certain. For students who are keen to study in Europe, Ireland’s affordability, thriving tech sector, and high-quality education create a compelling draw. At ApplyBoard, we’re proud to continue to support our Irish institutional partners and expand access to this emerging yet stable destination market.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data in this article is courtesy of the . Data methodology changes occurred between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 HEA datasets, thus the data in this article is not directly comparable to our analysis of Ireland’s international education sector in Dec 2023.

2. Select UK universities still offer domestic tuition rates to EU students.

The post International Student Enrolment in Ireland Reaches All-Time High in 2023/24 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

The Institute of International Education (IIE) released its last month, revealing that the total number of international students in the United States has reached its highest level ever. However, students participating in played a key role in reaching this milestone, as more students stayed in the US after graduation to gain work experience. By comparison, while international student enrolments continued to grow in 2023/24, they still did not reach the peak set in 2016/17.

With these facts in mind, we’re exploring the latest US enrolment trends, including shifts at the undergraduate and graduate levels. We’ll also examine the student populations driving these shifts, and how changes in these areas are influencing fields of study. These insights can help American institutions strategically plan their student recruitment for 2025 and beyond.

OPT Drives New High-Water Mark for International Students in the US

After years of post-pandemic recovery, last year saw a new record for international students in the US. Over 1.1 million international students studied or participated in Optional Practical Training (OPT) in the US in 2023/24:

The 1.1 million students in the US in 2023/24 reflect a 7% increase over the previous academic year. This growth was largely driven by a 22% rise in OPT placements, which reached an all-time high over the past year. This increase in pre- and post-graduation temporary employment shows strong student interest in gaining practical work experience, a trend that we observed when surveying future international students in our Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey.

Meanwhile, international student enrolments totaled 884,000 in 2023/24, marking a 3% year-over-year increase and a new post-pandemic high. However, this figure remains 2% below the peak set in the 2016/17 academic year, leaving room for further growth.

In 2023/24, international students accounted for nearly 6% of all students—foreign and domestic—in the US.

New International Enrolment Growth in the US Slows in 2023/24

While total international student numbers were up year-over-year, new enrolment growth was more limited. In 2022/23, new international student enrolments nearly returned to their previous all-time high after growing 14% over the previous academic year. This set the stage for a possibly explosive 2023/24, especially given shifting student visa policies in Canada and the United Kingdom. Instead, new enrolment growth slowed:

Total new enrolments in 2023/24 stood at 299,000, just below the peak level set in 2015/16. This figure was bolstered by growth at the graduate level, which was up 4% in 2023/24 over the previous academic year.

But the new enrolment gains at the graduate level barely offset the downward trends at the undergraduate and non-degree levels, both of which have been declining since 2015/16 (except for a brief rebound following 2020/21). New undergraduate enrolments dropped 2% to 94,000 in 2023/24, while non-degree enrolments saw a steep 16% decline.

These Student Populations are Driving Undergraduate Enrolment in the US

Undergraduate enrolments and total international undergraduate populations both dropped in the past twelve months. In 2023/24, 343,000 international students were enrolled at the undergraduate level in the US, a 1% decrease from the previous academic year. However, several student populations grew significantly at this study level compared to 2022/23:

Chinese students accounted for one in every four international undergraduate students in the US in 2023/24. However, their 88,000 enrolments represent a 13% decline over the previous academic year, continuing a downward trend that began in 2018/19. This trend likely reflects China’s continuing growth as a study destination and underscores the importance for institutions in established destinations to diversify their student recruitment efforts.

That said, there’s also some good news for institutions on the diversification front. Many of the largest student populations worldwide are increasingly interested in undergraduate studies in the US. For example, undergraduate enrolments by Indian students, the second-largest population at this level of study, grew by 13% in 2023/24. Expectations of sustained future growth should be tempered, though: like China, India is heavily investing in its own international education sector, which could further drive significant shifts in student flows by 2030.

Meanwhile, the three fastest-growing student populations in the undergraduate level in 2023/24 were from Burma/Myanmar (+39%), Bangladesh (+35%), and Ghana (+33%).² In general, the US is increasingly attracting more undergraduate students from south and central Asia. Among these countries, 12 had over 100 enrolments, and 10 experienced year-over-year growth.³ This shows that institutions looking to increase their undergraduate diversity should aim to attract more students from these high-interest student regions.

These Student Populations are Driving Graduate Enrolment in the US

While undergraduate populations declined slightly last year, interest in graduate-level education in the US grew significantly after the pandemic. Enrolments rose 8% in 2023/24 compared to 2022/23, exceeding half a million students overall. These are the student populations driving that growth:

It’s been a swift rise to the top for India, as graduate enrolments have nearly doubled since the 2021/22 academic year.⁴ The 197,000 Indian students pursuing graduate studies in the US in 2023/24 represented a growth of 18% over the previous academic year, with these students accounting for 39% of all graduate students.

Yet Ghana (+54%) and Bangladesh (+24%) were the two fastest-growing student populations at the graduate level in 2023/24.⁵ Since these two countries also rank among the top three for undergraduate studies, they offer strong opportunities for institutions to attract students at both levels with targeted recruitment efforts.

Learn more about how Ghana is poised to help drive increased international student diversity.

These Student Populations Pursue STEM Opportunities in the US

Sciences, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations in the US are projected to grow by over 10% in the next decade, offering median wages more than double those of non-STEM roles. These high-growth, high-earning fields are especially appealing to students from the following populations:

In 2023/24, over 70% of students from India, Iran, Bangladesh, and Nepal pursued STEM opportunities in the US. While significant year-over-year changes are limited, this is because OPT data is included in the field of study numbers, reflecting students remaining in the US for up to three additional years to pursue work opportunities.⁶

What is notable is how these major student populations vary in their interest across STEM fields. For example, 43% of Indian students pursued math and computer science programs, significantly outpacing all other student populations. The second largest proportion of students in this field were Nepalese students at 30%.

No student population had a larger proportion pursuing physical and life sciences than Nepal’s 18% in 2023/24. Learn more about how Nepal is altering the international student landscape.

By contrast, Iranian and Bangladeshi students were highly focused on engineering programs, with 46% and 33% of each respective student population pursuing this field. And for institutions aiming to grow their health studies programs, Nigerian students are a key demographic to keep in mind. Over 11% of Nigerian students pursued opportunities in health professions, with an additional nearly 18% pursuing physical and life sciences.

Looking Forward

As the landscape of international education continues to evolve, US institutions must proactively adapt their recruitment strategies to align with shifting student priorities. The trends which IIE’s most recent Open Doors Report highlighted truly underscore the importance of leveraging data to refine recruitment strategies. They also show how monitoring shifts in enrolment patterns and field-specific interests can help institutions stay ahead of global competition.

With traditional markets like China facing declining enrolments and investing in their own education sectors, institutions in destinations like the US must expand their outreach to emerging markets. Countries such as Bangladesh, Ghana, and Nepal are demonstrating strong growth across multiple study levels and offer significant potential for sustained engagement.

Likewise, the demand for STEM fields—coupled with robust OPT options—remains a powerful draw for students worldwide. Institutions should highlight study-to-career pathways in high-demand STEM disciplines while also ensuring their programs in other fields, like health professions, align with evolving student interests and workforce needs.

This alignment is especially critical as students increasingly prioritize destinations that offer strong pathways to employment. Indeed, institutions should actively communicate the benefits of OPT and other work opportunities to prospective students, reinforcing the value of an American education in achieving long-term career goals.

By embracing these strategies, US institutions can not only navigate current challenges but also position themselves to attract the next generation of international students. In an increasingly competitive global education sector, flexibility, innovation, and a commitment to understanding student priorities will be the keys to sustained success.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the Institute of International Education (IIE) .

2. Minimum of 1,500 total undergraduate enrolments.

3. Student populations in the undergraduate level from south and central Asian countries that grew in 2023/24 include Afghanistan (+25%), Bangladesh (+35%), India (+13%), Kazakhstan (+11%), Kyrgyzstan (+55%), Nepal (+19%), Pakistan (+2%), Tajikistan (+18%), Turkmenistan (+20%), and Uzbekistan (+13%).

4. There were 102,000 Indian students enrolled at the graduate level in 2021/22, meaning that this student population has grown 93% in just a two-year span.

5. Minimum 1,500 enrolments.

6. While the standard duration of OPT is one year of full-time employment, graduates from eligible STEM programs may receive up to two years of additional post-completion OPT through the .

The post US Institutions Should Recruit From These Student Populations in 2025 and Beyond appeared first on ApplyBoard.

While the United Kingdom has always seen high international student demand, student mobility towards the UK has been reduced in recent years. The dependants policy change, the Graduate Route review, and all weakened student flows to UK institutions in 2024.

Despite these challenges, international student interest in the UK is also on the rise. In fact, in our Fall 2024 RP Pulse Survey, the UK ranked as the second most attractive study destination, surpassing Canada amidst a year of Canadian policy changes. With student interest towards destinations like Canada and Australia falling, UK institutions—and specifically UK universities—have an opportunity to reverse year-over-year declines and make 2025 a year of growth.

That’s why today, we’re taking a close look at new international undergraduate trends at UK universities, based on the latest University and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) data release. We’ll dive into which undergrad populations are growing at UK universities, the challenges these universities face due to the 2023 dependants policy, and how UK institutions can capitalize on student demand shifting away from Canada and Australia.

Undergrad Acceptances for International Students Continue to Slowly Decline

As we observed in our analysis of August’s UK Home Office data, new international student populations in the UK have broadly declined since mid-2023. However, when it comes to the number of international undergraduate students at UK universities, weakened demand is a longer-term trend.

In fact, new international undergraduate admissions at UK universities were 17% lower in 2024 than they were in 2020:

From 2020 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, new international undergrad acceptances fell by around 20%. After a small (4%) rise in 2022, international undergrad volumes slowly decreased by around 1% in both 2023 and 2024. This limited recovery and trickling decline mean that in 2024, international undergrad acceptances hit their second lowest figure in the past decade.

For the year ending June 2024, the UK issued over 432,000 sponsored study visas to main application international students, according to UK Home Office data. That represents a decline of 13% from the previous year.

Brexit a Leading Cause of International Student Population Drops

The leading cause of these declines can be traced back to the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) in 2020.

Since Brexit introduced new barriers for students from EU countries to study in the UK, fewer of these students have pursued undergrad courses in the UK each year:

While Brexit nearly coincided with the start of the pandemic, international undergrad volumes from non-EU countries actually rose in 2020 and 2021, hitting their peak in 2022. By contrast, new EU undergrad students fell by 57% over the same period. Additionally, the EU figure is largely buffered by growing interest from Irish students. Across all other EU nations, new undergrad acceptances at UK universities dropped by 70% from 2020 to 2024.

Declining Student Populations Among UK International Undergrads

Over the past year, international undergraduate student volumes have been relatively stable. Yet the 1% overall decline in acceptances from 2023 to 2024 obscures some larger shifts among new undergrad populations:

While three of the largest relative year-over-year declines came from EU students—Italy, Germany, and Greece—new undergrad inflows were down across many regions. Of the 162 student populations that saw at least 10 students accepted for undergrad programs at UK universities in 2024, 108 of those (67%) experienced no growth or negative growth compared to 2023. This was comparable to the number of student populations that saw fewer sponsored study visas over the same period.

For some of these student populations, these trends reflect economic factors such as or declining GDP in a student’s country of origin. Others may be influenced by increased efforts from nearby European destinations such as and to attract international students.

In our Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, student interest in studying in Germany nearly surpassed interest in Australian institutions. Students also reported over 60 different destinations beyond the ‘Big Four’ where they are considering studying.

This weaker demand also reflects the UK government’s dependants policy change enacted in May 2023:

Since this policy came into effect, many source markets with high dependant to main applicant ratios have experienced more substantial declines. The two most notable, Nigeria and Sri Lanka, were two of the fastest-declining student populations in the UK overall from 2023 to 2024.

Critically, this revised dependants policy has also affected the number of Indian students pursuing undergrad education in the UK. While new undergrad student volumes from India nearly doubled between 2019 and 2023—helping India surpass Hong Kong as the second largest source market for new undergraduate students at UK universities—their overall volume fell by 4% over the past year. Despite this drop, Indian students still accounted for 8% of all new international undergrads at UK universities in 2024, up from 5% in 2020.

The 2022/23 academic year was a banner year for international enrolment in the UK, with UK institutions hosting nearly 760,000 students. Indian student enrolments led this growth, increasing by 39% from the 2021/22 academic year.

Which International Undergrad Populations Are Rising at UK Universities?

Even with undergrad population declines across various source markets, overall UK undergrad acceptances remained relatively stable in 2024.

This was primarily due to a similar diversity of growing student populations from across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North America:

Türkiye was the largest source of international undergrad growth from 2023 to 2024, with acceptances for Turkish students up 34% year-over-year. This growth helped Türkiye climb into the top ten source markets, surpassing Nigeria, France, and Spain.

Many of the top ten source markets for new international undergrads at UK universities saw modest growth in 2024. In fact, new undergrad acceptances for students from Ireland, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Canada hit all-time highs in 2024.

While these growing student populations helped mitigate overall declines, their impact on total new undergrad stability may be short lived. Ireland and Canada have relatively low potential for significant growth in future years, given that they are themselves popular destinations for international students. And, the United Arab Emirates’ includes plans to keep domestic students at local universities while attracting more international students as well.

Chinese Students Represent a Quarter of New International Undergrads at UK Universities

Limited growth potential among the top ten source markets coupled with declines across previously growing sources has made UK universities more dependent on their largest new undergrad population: students from China.

The number of new Chinese undergrads accepted to UK universities has climbed significantly over the past decade. In 2015, just over 5,500 Chinese undergraduate students were accepted for courses at UK universities. But by 2022, this number rose to over 16,500, an increase of 200% in just seven years.

While Chinese undergraduates accounted for under 9% of all new acceptances at UK universities in 2015, their share of the total new international undergrad population has continued to rise:

In 2020, Chinese undergrads accounted for more acceptances than the rest of the top five source markets combined. By 2024, nearly one in every four students accepted to a UK university undergrad program was from China.

This long-term growth has provided stability to UK universities throughout the challenges presented by the pandemic, Brexit, and the dependants policy. However, even the strong Chinese student market experiences shifting trends: From 2022 to 2024, the number of new Chinese undergrads accepted into UK undergrad courses dropped by over 10%. With experts , this high proportion of students from one source market could expose UK universities to higher volatility.

Global Policy Shifts Create New Opportunities for UK Universities

Although UK universities face challenges around diversifying their international student populations, they may be at the precipice of renewed opportunity in 2025. International student interest in studying in the UK is on the rise, and UK universities continue to rank as some of the .

By leveraging this momentum, UK universities are poised to attract students who are reconsidering their study abroad options in a landscape of policy changes. Both Canadian and Australian universities have international student caps for 2025, and these countries’ post-study work visas (Temporary Graduate in Australia and Post-Graduation Work Permit in Canada) have become more restrictive. Meanwhile, the preservation of the UK’s Graduate Route means that international graduates from UK institutions still enjoy strong post-graduation work opportunities.

In our recent Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, the potential of securing a post-graduation work visa was the second most important factor students reported considering when choosing where to study abroad.

Moving forward, universities in the UK should lean into their strengths to increase diversity and attract international undergraduates. Their prestigious reputation, high-quality education, and historic campuses already work in their favour. Now, UK institutions can also promote their relative policy stability, with the UK’s new Labour government promising to and support the Graduate Route.

While the years ahead will not be without challenges for universities in the UK, institutions that are responsive to shifting student demand and who understand increased student mobility in emerging markets can increase campus diversity and attract more international undergraduates. For more strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your UK institution can maximize conversion rates and drive student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the , unless otherwise noted. All UCAS data referenced herein is based on acceptances to UK university courses. The use of year throughout this article means from 28 days after Level 3 results day in a given year to the same calculated point in the next year.

2. UCAS data is rounded to the nearest 10 for each calculated category, following . Due to this rounding, summed figures may not remain equal across all categorizations.

The post UK Undergraduate Admissions for 2024 Reveal Shifting International Student Populations appeared first on ApplyBoard.

2024 has been a nearly unprecedented year for changes in the international education sector. Policy updates. Geopolitical shifts. A rising cost of living around the world. It’s a lot for future international students to keep in mind, on top of course and visa applications, finding housing, and everything else that goes into starting their study abroad journey.

As the international education sector continues to shift, understanding how prospective students feel and what they think about the challenges and opportunities they face is more important than ever. To better understand their perceptions and experiences, we connected with over 1,500 students from almost 100 countries in the latest edition of our Student Pulse Survey.¹ They shared which destinations had caught their eye, what motivates them to study abroad, and which factors are most likely to shape their decisions. Read on for a closer look at study level trends, which study destinations are gaining ground, and more.

Future International Students Show Greater Interest in Postgraduate Study

The policy changes that have defined the international education sector in 2024 have already had a significant impact on weakening student demand. Compared to the Spring 2024 Student Pulse Survey, interest in all levels of study fell except for master’s degrees, PhDs or other doctoral degrees, and secondary school (high school):

In a trend continuing from our Spring 2024 survey, the vast majority of participants were interested in postgraduate-level study (89% in Fall 2024). This six percentage point increase in half a year may indicate students’ awareness of the advantages of studying abroad at the postgraduate level, whether due to increased flexibility in bringing dependents or more generous post-study work visas.

However, this increased interest isn’t shared equally across all postgraduate programs. Interest in postgraduate degrees and certificates actually dropped over the past six months. This decline is likely caused by student awareness of policy changes that decrease access to post-study opportunities—like updates to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program—for non-degree graduates.

Popularity of European and Asian Destinations Rises, As Does Interest in the Big Four

In looking at where future international students would like to study, 64% of survey participants were focused on the “Big Four” destinations—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This percentage is higher than it was in our last Student Pulse survey, where 57% of students were interested solely in studying in the Big Four. While our survey is a small sample of the global student population, it’s interesting to see stronger interest in these markets given recent policy changes that have negatively affected ease of student mobility.

When asked about country-specific interest levels, students shared lower interest in Australia and Canada and higher interest in the UK and the US compared to our Spring 2024 findings. This echoed sentiments from education professionals in our most recent Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey.

In fact, in our Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, more students were “extremely interested” in studying in the US versus any of the other featured countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom). Slightly higher interest at the “very interested” and “moderately interested” levels for study in Canada meant that the US remained in second place, but Canada’s lead has shrunk notably over the past six months:

Europe Home to the Majority of Alternate Study Destinations

While the percentage of students who are looking beyond the Big Four decreased by seven percentage points to 36% in our Fall 2024 survey, these students have a truly global outlook. They shared over 60 different destinations where they’d like to study:

While Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden were top-of-mind, respondents shared their interest in studying across Europe. They listed over 30 European countries as potential destinations.

Looking beyond Europe, Japan and South Korea represented Asia in the top ten study destinations, at seventh and tenth place respectively. This edition of the survey also showed students’ strong interest in China and Singapore. Middle Eastern destinations like the United Arab Emirates (particularly its capital, Dubai), Türkiye, and Qatar are of increased interest to these students, as well. And, for the first time for this question, students shared their interest in African destinations like Egypt and South Africa. As new study destinations emerge—in this survey, respondents listed six more markets than they did in Spring 2024—it’s important that academic institutions in established destinations continue to connect with their target student audiences to share why their institution remains an excellent option.

Career Goals Align With High-Demand STEM and Health Care Fields

When asked about their future careers, many students planned to join fields which are expanding rapidly and in need of new grads. Many students aim to start or build on careers in business and entrepreneurship, or STEM,³ particularly in engineering and technology. They’ll enter a workforce which needs their skills: whether in the US, where STEM jobs are projected to grow at over twice the rate of all other careers until 2031,⁴ or in the UK, which is projected to add 1.9 STEM professionals to its workforce by 2035.⁵ Students also shared many different health care careers (nursing was the third-most popular career goal), but respondents also dream of becoming surgeons, doctors, public health officers, and therapists:

Several students also included sustainability and ethics in their career goals, whether as white-hat hackers, non-governmental organization workers, or environmental scientists. These career paths hint at their desire to build a brighter future, as this response outlines:

To come back here in Mali to share my knowledge in our community to help our young people have a stable life. Especially also put a reforestation project in my city, which is one of the hottest localities in West Africa.
– Student response to “What career(s) do you plan to pursue after completing your studies?

More Students Than Ever Plan to Balance Study with Work

When it comes to ensuring students have the financial ability to pay for their studies, more students are considering working while abroad. Only around 2% of surveyed international students did not plan to work in any capacity while studying, according to our Fall 2024 Student Pulse Survey. This is even lower than our Spring 2024 findings, where nearly 3% of international students didn’t plan to work.

Students also expect to be working more: 59% of students planned to work more than 20 hours per week if allowed, versus 46% of respondents in the Spring survey. However, slightly fewer students planned to do a co-op or work term as part of their studies: 32% expected to do some work-integrated learning, versus 39% in Spring 2024.

These findings of increased student focus on work were echoed when we asked what drove students to consider studying abroad, and how they chose a destination. Over two-thirds of respondents ranked “building a professional or academic network,” “preparing for a job in my chosen field,” and “the quality of institutions is higher than in my home country” as extremely influential factors on their decision.

Accessibility and Employability Key Factors for Study Destinations

Meanwhile, top factors influencing study destination choice in Fall 2024 included accessibility and graduate outcomes, versus institution ranking or a welcoming atmosphere. The ability to get a student visa took the top spot, and the ability to work in their host country after graduation was the next most important factor, followed by the destination’s overall reputation:

The ability to obtain a student visa rose from the fourth- or fifth-most important factor in our last two surveys to the top factor for most prospective international students. In fact, 37% of respondents chose it as the most important factor when deciding where to study. This shift may speak to how a year of policy updates has made getting a student visa more of a limiting factor around destination choice.

It’s also interesting to see “welcoming to international students” fall to near the bottom of this list. Almost 45% of students chose it as one of their top five factors in the Spring 2024 survey, and it was the most important factor in our Fall 2023 survey. Throughout 2024, several countries adopted more restrictive international education measures, like or visa processing fees. Australia’s soft cap on the number of international students it would admit in 2025 and Canada’s updated study permit caps for 2025, along with revised PGWP eligibility criteria are likely also shaping how students see these destinations. So, seeing the reduced importance of a welcoming environment is arguably evidence of international student resilience: Even in challenging times, they’re not giving up on their goals.

What These Survey Results Mean for Institutions

For institutions looking to maintain and build their international student population, adapting to shifting student preferences is vital. Here are a few recommendations of what institutions can do to support student success:

• Per our most recent survey, students value a school’s strong reputation more than its formal global or national rankings. Sharing your institution’s strengths via student testimonials, your alumni network, in-market events, and social media may lead to an influx of interest from future students.
• 2024 has been a year of intense change and students may be deferring their enrolment, or reconsidering their options. To help retain them, it’s vital for institutions to keep open lines of communication around policy changes, official links to student visa information, key academic calendar dates, and more. Helping students feel like they’re part of the campus community even before arrival can make them more likely to follow through with their enrolment and future academic growth.
• Part-time work is a reality for most international students. To help students balance study and work without jeopardizing their student visa, highlight specific opportunities through your institution’s relationships with local industry, co-op programs, or unique research avenues. Have strong graduate employment rates? Share those in admissions materials so students can easily imagine the path from their course or program to their future career.

We hope these insights are helpful to you and your team. Stay tuned for our next Pulse Surveys for students and recruitment professionals which will launch in Spring 2025.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The Fall 2024 Student Pulse Survey ran from September 30, 2024 to October 14, 2024. We received 1,524 responses from individuals in 94 countries.

2. “Big Four” destinations include the most popular countries for post-secondary education in English: Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

3. “STEM” refers to the fields of science, technology, engineering, and math.

4. Emily Krutsch and Victoria Roderick, U.S. Department of Labor Blog, “.” November 4, 2022.

5. Universities UK, “.” Updated October 2024.

The post International Student Interest in Postgraduate Studies and US Institutions On the Rise appeared first on ApplyBoard.