Last year, proposed and enacted government policy changes caused significant shifts in the international education sector in Australia. These trends were largely driven by uncertainty around the government鈥檚 intended 鈥榮oft cap鈥� on international student volumes, .
This legislation鈥攖he ESOS Amendment Bill鈥攚as ultimately scrapped due to a lack of support in Australia鈥檚 parliament, but its proposed tertiary student commencement limitations1 were later (MD111) in December. Despite how recently these limits were formally enacted, the debates throughout 2024 created confusion for students and contributed to weakened demand for studying in Australia.
To evaluate the impact of these policy debates and changes on student demand, we鈥檙e diving into Australian student visa trends over the first six months of 2024/25.2 We鈥檒l be taking a closer look at which student populations experienced the biggest shifts, how the proposal of the ESOS bill impacted different levels of study, and what we expect to see for Australia鈥檚 international education sector by the end of 2024/25.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 星空影视projects that 220,000 new Australian student visas will be granted in 2024/25, a drop of 10% from 2023/24.3
- Over 110,000 student visa applications were lodged through July鈥揇ecember 2024, signalling that student demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- Higher ed studies accounted for nearly 75% of all visas granted in the first six months of 2024/25, up from just over 50% two years prior.
Student Visas Granted in 2024/25 On Track to Return to 2018/19 Levels
In each of the two fiscal years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia granted more than 200,000 student visas to new international students. And, in the first full post-pandemic year (2022/23), Australia reached a new high-water mark of over 325,000 new student visas granted. This was partly due to the 鈥渄ouble cohort effect鈥�, where students who had delayed studying abroad moved forward with their plans once widespread travel resumed.
As student volumes normalized in 2023/24, Australia鈥檚 new international student population still showed modest gains over pre-pandemic levels. But as we look to the 2024/25 fiscal year, our projections show that the number of new student visas granted may fall by 10% year-over-year:
Through the first six months of 2024/25, around 110,000 new student visas were granted to international students planning to study in Australia. This was a decrease of 10% from the same months in 2023/24. We expect this trend to continue across the full year, and granted visa volumes are historically split fairly evenly across both halves of a given year in Australia. This means that a full-year 10% decline would result in approximately 220,000 new student visas granted in 2024/25, returning Australia鈥檚 new international student populations to 2018/19 volumes.
While the previously proposed NPL was mapped against the 2025 calendar year鈥攁s opposed to the 2024/25 fiscal year鈥攊t is notable that the NPL included a new visa issuance cap of 270,000 in 2025 for higher ed and VET. If new visa issuances in 2025 match 2024, new international student volumes across all study levels would fall below this cap by nearly 20%. And this scenario can鈥檛 be shelved just yet: the overall cap, as well as indicative caps for each Australian institution, have been.
Predicting Student Demand for Studying in Australia in 2024/25
The decline in student visas granted isn鈥檛 due to policy changes alone. Student demand is also impacted by policy discussions and implementation. Ever since the ESOS Bill was proposed and began creating uncertainty around Australia鈥檚 international student policies, the number of new student visas lodged has dropped substantially:
About 111,000 student visa applications were lodged in the first six months of 2024/25, representing a 37% decline over the same period of the previous year. If this softened demand persists across the full fiscal year, Australia may see fewer new visa applications lodged than in any non-pandemic year since 2016/17.
However, we don 鈥榯 expect this decline to persist long-term. It鈥檚 far more likely that 2024/25 will be a 鈥榬eset鈥� year that returns Australia to their modest pre-pandemic growth trend. Even if 2024/25 concludes with lower new student volumes than 2018/19 for Australian institutions, overall demand for studying abroad remains strong and Australia is an attractive destination for many students.
Higher Ed Visa Grants Hold Steady Amid Allocation Shifts
Australia鈥檚 2024/25 student visa trends show that the NPL-turned-MD111 continues to shape outcomes across study levels, given that NPL visa allocations now underpin MD111鈥檚 student visa processing policies. These , shielding many universities from significant cap impacts, while non-tertiary providers were excluded from the NPL entirely.
By projecting granted student visa volumes across 2024/25, based on data from the first six months of the fiscal year, we can see how visa trends align with these policy aims:
Australia鈥檚 higher ed, non-award, and schools sectors are all projected to experience marginal growth in new international student populations in 2024/25, compared to the previous year. Similarly, postgraduate visa grants are trending towards relative stability compared to the past two years. This reinforces that Australia鈥檚 international sector is well-poised for modest future growth, and the potential that 2024/25 will be a new baseline for future years.
If all these study levels are relatively stable, or even growing, what鈥檚 driving the overall drop in new student visas? VET and ELICOS programs. These two study levels have experienced significant year-over-year declines since the 2022/23 high-water mark:
While VET programs accounted for over 13% of all visas granted in the first half of 2022/23, they represented just 4% of granted visas over the same period in 2024/25. This is largely due to two main factors. First, significant limitations were placed on VET providers under the new indicative allocations, meaning that many VET programs have limited seats available for international students. Second, visa grant rates for VET studies have remained around 50% over the past three years, at least 30 percentage points below the all applicant average.4
For Australia鈥檚 ELICOS sector, lower approval rates have also been a factor. Grant rates for ELICOS visas were around 75% in the first half of last year, down from 90% in full-year 2022/23. More importantly, growth in this sector was previously driven by high demand from students across Latin America, especially Colombia and Brazil. As this demand has softened substantially over the past two years, the study level has faced challenging persistent declines.
With VET and ELICOS demand softening, providers should focus on differentiation and adaptability. Strengthening pathways to higher education, expanding industry partnerships, and enhancing student support can boost appeal. Diversifying recruitment and highlighting strong program outcomes鈥攍ike job prospects or university articulation鈥攚ill also be key. Staying agile amid policy shifts and advocating for sector needs can help navigate this challenging period.
International Students from Across Asia Driving Sector Stability
For institutions across Australia, understanding student mobility flows from different student populations is foundational for future recruitment efforts. Over the past decade, the two largest student populations in Australia have been students from China and from India. Historically, Chinese students have been the largest cohort within Australia鈥檚 international student population. But pre- and post-pandemic, Indian students were poised to become the top new student population, based on student visas granted per year.
Now, as incoming student flows shift based on government policies and geopolitical factors, Australia鈥檚 new Chinese and Indian student populations are on different trajectories:
Based on lodged student visa data from the last year and a half, it鈥檚 almost certain that Chinese students will remain the top new student population in Australia in the coming years. In fact, for 2024/25, we predict that the number of student visa applications from Chinese students will remain near-stable year-over-year. This stability helps support Australia鈥檚 higher ed sector in particular, given that over 90% of Chinese student visa applications were for higher ed programs.
By contrast, demand from Indian students fell by nearly 20% from 2023/23 to 2023/24. And, based on Jul鈥揇ec 2024/25 data, we anticipate this demand to further weaken by up to 30% again this year. This decline will account for a significant portion of the overall drop in visas granted for higher ed studies. As with Chinese students, Indian students are largely drawn to Australia鈥檚 higher ed sector, with 93% of Indian student visa applications directed toward higher ed in the last six months of 2024.
It is worth noting, however, that Australia is not alone in experiencing declining Indian student volumes. Canada, the US, and the UK have all seen new Indian student numbers drop over the past year, and India鈥檚 government has introduced several initiatives to encourage students to pursue higher education locally. This highlights the growing importance of having a diverse student recruitment strategy, especially as prospective students consider more destinations than ever before.
Growth Opportunities for Australian International Education
While India and China will remain key sources of new international students in the coming years, Australian institutions should also look to adjust their efforts based on other emerging鈥攁nd declining鈥攏ew student populations.
Growth in visas granted to students from Asia, North America, and Europe helped give the sector stability in 2024/25 and, moving forward, represent key areas of potential recruitment diversification strategies:
Through the first six months of 2024/25, East Asian student populations accounted for three of the top five fastest-growing new student cohorts, based on new student visas granted. New student populations from Taiwan, South Korea, and China all grew by at least 20% in early 2024/25, compared to the same period last year. Across the rest of Asia, student demand from Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka also saw significant growth.
Interestingly, many of these growing student populations represent established or growing international student destinations. Canada and the USA are fellow members of the 鈥楤ig Four鈥�,5 while China and have dedicated significant resources in recent years to strengthen their international education sectors. Likewise, Germany has seen rising demand among international students, with German institutions . Collectively, this may create challenges developing these student flows in the long-term, although students from China and South Korea remain high-potential opportunities over the next five years.
When it comes to student populations with weakening demand, there is a clear connection to the challenges facing Australia鈥檚 VET and ELICOS sectors. Many of Australia鈥檚 fastest-declining student populations were drawn primarily to either VET or ELICOS programs in previous years. While students from Vietnam, Bhutan, and Pakistan are largely driven towards higher ed studies, Vietnamese and Pakistani students have experienced falling visa grant rates.6 The grant rate for Vietnamese students fell to just 76% in 2023/24, their lowest approval rate in decades. In the face of these challenges, VET and ELICOS providers will need to diversify their recruitment efforts and promote strong program outcomes to prospective students.
Looking Ahead to 2025
With the implementation of Ministerial Directive 111, clarity is beginning to settle across Australia鈥檚 international education sector. Institutions have been provided with their indicative allotments for 2025, and while adjustments continue to be made to these figures, the mechanics of Australia鈥檚 international student cap are largely set. While these limits present challenges in attracting top global talent, they also offer opportunities to enhance sector sustainability long-term.
Australia remains a popular destination for international students, strengthened by robust post-graduation work opportunities. As Australia hones its approach to international education, strong cross-collaboration on skills development, program design, and employment pathways can help draw top talent while equipping students for success in their careers. By remaining adaptable and focused on student success, institutions can maximize their potential in 2025 and beyond.
For personalized insights and strategies to maximize your institution鈥檚 potential, reach out to your Partner Relations Manager or contact ApplyBoard鈥檚 Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com. ApplyBoard鈥檚 expertise in recruitment partner training, document verification, and student guidance equips institutions with the tools they need to enhance application quality, attract global talent, and maintain diverse student populations.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. Known, under the original bill, as the National Planning Level or NPL.
2. All data courtesy of the . All data reported according to Australian governmental financial years, which span from July of one year to June of the next year (for example, July 2023 to June 2024 was the 2023/24 year), unless otherwise noted. The data used for this article includes subclass 500 and subclass 570 to 576 visas lodged or granted to primary applicants located outside Australia only. The first six months of 2024/25 span from July 2024 to December 2024.
3. Student visas for primary applicants located outside of Australia only.
4. For offshore, primary applications only. The VET visa grant rate was 51.5% in 2022/23, 46.6% in 2023/24, and 52.3% in Jul鈥揇ec 2024/25. By contrast, the all applicant grant rates were 80.3%, 78.9%, and 88.0%, respectively.
5. A term used to denote the four largest English-speaking international student destination countries, namely Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
6. While visa approval rates for Bhutanese students remained on par with previous years in 2023/24 and early 2024/25, have attributed decreased demand towards Australia to policy change skepticism.
