On January 24, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) finalized each province and territory will receive for 2025. These caps, along with the national study permit issuance target, provide institutions with a clearer framework for planning in the year ahead鈥攖hough a few logistical questions remain.
Join us as we dive into Canada鈥檚 international student cap allotments for 2025. Find out how many student visa applications each province and territory can accept,1 our approval forecasts for 2025, and key changes that could reshape Canada鈥檚 international education landscape.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 星空影视projects that IRCC will approve about 207,000 new study permit applicants in 2025, a decline of 26% over 2024.2
- Canada鈥檚 national study permits issued target for 2025 is 437,000.3
- For nine of Canada鈥檚 13 provinces and territories, their allotted share of issued study permits for 2025 is closely aligned with their share of the country鈥檚 population.
- Including most study permit extension applicants in the provincial and territorial attestation letters (PAL/TAL) requirements will likely create a competitive first-come, first-served environment in 2025.
Softened Demand from International Students Likely to Continue in 2025
In 2024, Canada鈥檚 international education sector was defined by softening international student demand, following the introduction of the country鈥檚 application cap. The number of new student approvals dropped 45% last year, outpacing IRCC鈥檚 intended 35% reduction by 10 percentage points. This weakening demand occurred across all study levels, including those exempt from the cap.4
Based on these current trends, as well as factors influencing global student flow towards Canada, 星空影视projects that lower demand among new international students will continue throughout 2025:
We anticipate IRCC will approve study permits for about 207,000 new international students in 2025. This would represent a 26% drop from 2024, returning to approval volumes last seen in 2018. However, this fall represents a slower rate of decline than last year鈥檚, partly because 2023 was a high-water mark鈥攎eaning there was more room to drop in 2024鈥攁nd partly due to expectations that softening demand will stabilize and establish a new baseline by summer 2025.
It鈥檚 important to note that this forecast only measures new student demand and does not account for study permit extensions, or potential shifts in study permit approval rates. As we detailed last week, approval rates fell to near 50% in 2024, and any changes to this rate could significantly impact our forecast. Additionally, the specific allocation of study permits under the cap feature significant amendments for 2025, including the integration of postgraduate students and a requirement for 鈥榦nshore鈥� students to acquire a new study permit when changing institutions or study levels. These changes each have the potential to influence student mobility flows, impacting our projections as logistical details become clearer.
How Study Permit Allocations Will Work in 2025
While our forecast estimates the effect of shifting student demand, the caps necessarily limit the supply of study permits available to international students. Putting aside this decreased student demand, what is the direct impact of the caps on the number of study permits available to students hoping to study in Canada?
Canada鈥檚 national study permits issued target for 2025鈥攚hich includes student cohorts that are exempt from the application cap鈥攊s 437,000. This would be a 10% decrease from the 2024 target, as . Note, however, that there鈥檚 contradicting terminology of 鈥渁pprovals鈥� and 鈥渋ssued鈥� between the 2024 and 2025 targets. While the 2025 target is labeled 鈥渟tudy permits issued,鈥� the 2024 target (and the math outlined for that target) was for 鈥渟tudy permit approvals.鈥� Study permit approvals and study permits issued are two distinct parts of the student visa funnel.
The table below shows how these targets will be divided out among different study levels, including exempt applicants:
These study permits issued targets inform the number of PAL/TAL applications provinces and territories are allocated. New to 2025, graduate-level students and most onshore students require a PAL/TAL. However, the following groups remain PAL/TAL-exempt:
- K-12 students
- Certain Government of Canada priority groups and vulnerable cohorts (such as francophone students eligible for the )
- Existing study permit holders applying for an extension at the same designated learning institution (DLI) and at the same level of study
Canada鈥檚 International Student Cap 2025 Provincial Breakdown
While the overall target for study permits issued decreased for 2025, the inclusion of new student cohorts requiring a PAL/TAL resulted in most provinces and territories receiving higher application allotments compared to 2024. The table below shows the number of applications each province has been allocated for 2025:
The Canadian government revealed back in September that . Specifically, IRCC outlined that at least 12% of each province鈥檚 issuance target must be reserved for the graduate level, although this allotment will necessarily decrease the volume of non-graduate visas. On the surface, this explains why the total number of allotments in 2025 is only marginally lower than the 2024 total despite the targeted issuances being 10% lower.
As shown above, the change in allotments across each province and territory is not an even 10% reduction. Newfoundland and Labrador received nearly triple the application allotments for 2025 compared to 2024, and the Northwest Territories were allotted more than double. Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan were also granted significantly more allotments than the previous year, while Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia saw significant reductions. Ontario received the highest reduction overall, accounting for the biggest volume shift.
2025 Caps and Targets Move Closer to Population Share
Why these large differences across provinces? It鈥檚 important to remember that the 2024 cap was initially weighted, prior to final adjustments, by . To limit the impact of this change, regions with increased application allotments compared to 2023 were capped at 10% growth, while reductions in other regions were adjusted case-by-case, and then additional top-ups were rolled out to account for each province鈥檚 historical approval rates.
These adjustments were a positive step, aligning more closely with sector realities and enabling provinces and institutions to adapt more effectively to the new policies. But those adjustments also meant that gaps remained between the final numbers and the provincial population weights.
By comparison, both the 2025 application allotments and study permits issued targets align more closely with population weighting:
In 2025, the proportion of the total study permit issuance target allocated to nine of Canada鈥檚 13 provinces and territories falls within half a percentage point of their share of the country鈥檚 population. And while Alberta鈥檚 10.3% share of 2025 issuances remains nearly two percentage points below its population share, it’s almost two points higher than its 2024 approvals target.
Population share may help explain the significant decrease in Ontario鈥檚 application allotments and the increase in Quebec鈥檚. That鈥檚 because provinces with low approval rates will need more applications to meet their issuance targets than those with strong approval rates. And as we outlined last week, Ontario was one of only three provinces with an approval rate over 50% in 2024, while Quebec鈥檚 approval rate fell to 32%, the lowest of all provinces or territories.5
If IRCC continues to base study permit allotments primarily on provincial population share, this approach does not inherently consider factors like institutional capacity or local labour market needs. It also does not factor in recent PGWP policy changes that prioritize labour market fit. As a result, provinces with strong postsecondary institutions or significant employment opportunities for international graduates may not receive allocations that reflect those strengths.
To create a more balanced system, greater foundational support is needed鈥攂oth to better align allotments with these strengths and to help provinces receiving larger allocations expand their capacity. This includes more efforts to communicate with students about the incentives and opportunities available in those provinces.
Forecasting 2025 Canadian Student Visa Supply Potential
If each province and territory were to reach its PAL/TAL allotment, how many new students would be approved? Based on the latest IRCC data, we鈥檝e forecasted two scenarios for each province鈥檚/territory鈥檚 supply potential. This forecast range shows between 253,500 and 265,600 potential new approvals for 2025:6
There are two critical aspects of these supply potential forecasts to keep in mind. First, they do not account for historical application and approval volumes. Both forecasts assume each province and territory will reach their application allotment in 2025, and see approval rates similar to the January through October period of 2024.
Second, and most importantly, these forecasts do not account for the inclusion of onshore student applicants. As stated in the 2025 PAL/TAL media release, the . This change will likely have a profound impact on each province and territory: From January through October 2024, there were over 160,000 study permit extension applications for postsecondary studies. The only extension cohort that will continue to be exempt from submitting a PAL/TAL is students applying for an extension for .
But, in general, extension data does not clearly indicate the proportion of applications that this cohort represents. With an approval rate consistently above 90% since 2021, including 94% in 2024, study permit extension applications and approvals are likely to significantly impact an institution鈥檚 PAL/TAL allocations early in 2025, potentially creating a competitive first-come, first-served environment that may further diminish new student volumes.
Technology is Helping Institutions Improve Conversion Rates
Faced with changing application volumes, some institutions might consider stepping back from high-demand regions with lower visa approval rates. However, this strategy carries significant risks, including reduced campus diversity, disruptions to student enrollment flows, and limited flexibility to navigate global geopolitical shifts.
A more effective approach is to focus on partnerships that drive strong visa approvals and conversions while ensuring a diverse student body. By working with ApplyBoard, institutions can access cutting-edge tools and expertise that align students with programs tailored to their academic and career aspirations, optimizing both student success and institutional outcomes.
The results speak for themselves. 星空影视students consistently achieve higher study permit approval rates compared to the national average across Canada鈥檚 key source markets:
In 2024, 82% of 星空影视students were granted study permits鈥攏early 32 percentage points above the national average. For certain countries, such as Nigeria, the difference was even more pronounced, with 星空影视students achieving approval rates up to 40 percentage points higher than the national average.
Read more about why working with 星空影视is an advantage for both students and institutions.
What 2025鈥檚 PAL/TAL Application Allotments Mean for Canada鈥檚 International Education Sector
With the 2025 PAL/TAL allotments now clear, institutions will need to navigate a more regulated and competitive landscape. The transition to tighter allotments, alongside changes to the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program and the inclusion of postgraduate studies within cap limits, may initially present challenges for attracting top global talent. However, these changes also offer opportunities to enhance long-term sustainability and efficiency within the sector.
Canada continues to be a premier destination for international students, bolstered by one of the world鈥檚 strongest post-graduation work programs. Recent updates to the PGWP program reaffirm Canada鈥檚 commitment to fostering opportunities for international students, including no additional field of study requirements for master鈥檚 and doctoral levels. Additionally, new eligible programs, particularly in education, signal a proactive approach to addressing Canada鈥檚 critical skills gaps while supporting student aspirations.
Greater alignment between institutions, provinces, and employers will be key to capitalizing on these strengths. As Canada refines its approach to international education, stronger collaboration on program design, skills development, and employment pathways can help institutions attract top global talent while ensuring students are equipped for success in the workforce. This synergy will not only enhance post-graduation opportunities but also support Canada鈥檚 broader international education sector amid softening student demand.
In short, for institutions to thrive in this evolving environment, strategic partnerships will be more important than ever. ApplyBoard鈥檚 expertise in recruitment partner training, document verification, and student guidance equips institutions with the tools they need to enhance application quality, increase visa approval rates, and maintain diverse student populations.
As we enter this new chapter, Canada鈥檚 international education sector has a chance to reinforce its strengths and embrace new opportunities for growth. By staying adaptable and focused on student success, institutions can continue to provide world-class education to students from around the globe.
For personalized insights and strategies to maximize your institution鈥檚 potential in 2025, reach out to your Partner Relations Manager or contact ApplyBoard鈥檚 Partner Relations team at .
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we鈥檒l use the terms interchangeably.
2. This forecast measures the demand from new international students only, and is based on 2024 approval rates and rate of application volume decline. These demand projections do not factor in provincial shares of PALs/TALs and uncertainties remain about the cap鈥檚 target shifting from approvals to issued permits, as well as its inclusion of onshore students. Projections are subject to change as more information becomes available.
3. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted.
4. Canada鈥檚 2024 national cap on study permit applications included several exemptions based on program study level. Cap-exempt study levels included primary and secondary school, master鈥檚 programs, and doctoral degrees..
5. This approval rate is for all study levels.
6. This supply forecast does not account for historical approval volumes or the impact of including onshore applicants into the cap. The forecast is based on each province鈥檚/territory鈥檚 application allotment for 2025 and latest available approval rates.
