The 2022/23 academic year was a banner year for international education in many popular destination countries. In that academic year, over three quarters of a million international students pursued a UK-based education.1 This showcases strong demand for studying abroad in the UK, and the UK鈥檚 potential to be the world鈥檚 top attractive destination for international students.
However, the 2022/23 academic year will likely be a high-water mark for international education in the UK for the next little while. Since the 2022/23 academic year, a host of new policies in the UK alongside and declining GDP in many global economies has chilled study abroad demand in 2024.
Despite the current cooling of demand, enrolment data for 2022/23 still provides us with important insights about what drives student interest for a UK-based education. These insights may prove critical in ensuring UK institutions don鈥檛 miss out on international talent during times of suppressed demand. Let鈥檚 dive in.
Key Insights at a Glance
- For the 2022/23 academic year, the UK hosted nearly 760,000 international students.
- Postgraduate enrolments rose 22% over the previous academic year, while undergraduate enrolments remained steady.
- Non-European international student populations grew 20% in 2022/23, compared to the previous academic year, while European student populations dropped by 21%.
Why International Enrolment in 2022/23 was a High-Water Mark for the UK
It鈥檚 important to understand where the UK is today, before looking at where its international section was in 2022/23. In May 2023, the then-government of the UK announced its intention to limit the ability of international students to bring dependants with them when studying in the UK. At the time, we flagged that the UK risked losing demand from student populations with high dependant-to-main-applicant ratios, such as Nigeria and Sri Lanka. Our most recent analysis of sponsored study visas issued in H1 2024 shows this prediction is coming true, as sponsored study visa issuances to Nigerian main applicants dropped 46% year-over-year for the year ending June 2024.2
But the UK鈥檚 shift away from welcoming dependants of main applicants is not the only policy affecting student demand. International student fees have risen in 2024. Namely, the Immigration Health Surcharge for students applying to study in the UK , while the for students starting their studies on or after January 2, 2025.
These higher financial thresholds could further lead to students from price-sensitive countries looking elsewhere. Only 47% of respondents to our 2024 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey agreed or strongly agreed that the UK was an affordable destination for students, down from 65% in 2022. The UK was the only destination market to see less than half of respondents answer this way. This shows that while the UK continues to offer high-quality educational opportunities, price may become a larger barrier in the years ahead.
New UK Government鈥檚 Commitment to the Graduate Route
Despite these concerns, there are reasons to be optimistic that the UK could recover its international education brand. And it starts from the top.
In May, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) recommended . This helped relieve some uncertainty during a time when the previous government was mulling over its continued support of the Graduate Route. As post-graduation work opportunities are a top student priority, that uncertainty could have majorly hindered the UK鈥檚 appeal among prospective students.
Building on the positive momentum of the MAC review, the recently elected . With many UK institutions offering field-leading research opportunities and , it will be critical for the UK鈥檚 international education brand to ensure it鈥檚 renewing student confidence in the return on investment (ROI) of studying at a UK-based institution.
What Study Level do International Students Prefer in the UK?
With chilled demand defining the current landscape of international education in the UK, digging into the latest available enrolment data can help identify what strengths UK institutions can lean on for competitive advantages over other destination markets.
The UK hosted nearly 760,000 international students for the 2022/23 academic year. This represented a growth of 12% over the previous year. But this growth was not evenly spread between study levels:
Since the pandemic, the postgraduate level has driven enrolment growth in the UK. With 456,000 international students pursuing a postgraduate education, the study level was up 22% compared to the previous academic year. Meanwhile, undergraduate studies have remained relatively flat since 2019/20.
That 22% postgraduate growth figure is interesting, relative to UK international students trends in 2024. When we looked at the Home Office鈥檚 most recent study visa data, we found that the number of new sponsored study visas issued to main applicants fell in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023. This demand drop was almost identical to the postgraduate enrolment growth figure of 2022/23.3
So does this mean postgraduate enrolments may just be resetting to 2021/22 numbers? Not quite. The similar change figures are likely coincidental, since issued visas only represent new students while enrolment show longer-term, total student population trends. However, we do expect that much of the decline in visa issuances will be at the postgraduate level, since these older students are more likely to be impacted by new restrictions on dependants than the typically younger students at the undergraduate level.
How Study Visa Trends Have Shifted in 2024 for the Top Student Populations by 2022/23 Enrolment
International students outside of the European Union drove UK enrolment growth in 2022/23. The 663,000 non-European international students enrolled in all levels of study represented a growth of 20% over the previous academic year. For comparison, the 96,000 European students in the UK in 2022/23 was a year-over-year decline of 21%. This continued a downward trend of shrinking European student populations after European students lost discounted tuition fees following Brexit in 2021.
Let鈥檚 take a look to see how enrolment trends in 2022/23 compare to visa issuances trends we saw in H1 2024:4
Many of the UK鈥檚 largest student populations were booming in the 2022/23 academic year. Enrolment of students from India, Nigeria, and Pakistan were up at least 39% each compared to the previous academic year. And many emerging student populations, such as those from Bangladesh and Malaysia, were also on the rise.
But the landscape significantly differs looking at sponsored study visa issuances for the first half of 2024. The majority of top non-European student populations were issued at least 10% fewer new study visas compared to H1 2023, with many dropping by over 25%. There are a few outliers, like Pakistan (and Nepal, which grew by 33% in H1 2024), but the larger trend shows shrinking student populations.
These shifts highlight the importance for UK institutions to remain agile and adaptive, and ensure they鈥檙e recruiting a diverse student body. Institutions with strong student networks throughout the world will be in a much better position to reallocate their recruitment resources toward new opportunities compared to institutions that are situated in only a handful of countries.
Click here to see which international student populations are bucking downward UK visa trends in 2024.
星空影视Can Help Your Institution Adapt to Shifting Demand
The 2022/23 HESA enrolment data showcases the high potential that exists in the UK鈥檚 international education sector. While sponsored study visa issuances have been downtrending following a number of policies and global economic developments during the last year, that doesn鈥檛 mean the sector is without opportunity. In fact, several key student populations are bucking those downward trends, with demand reaching unprecedented levels in countries like Pakistan and Nepal.
Instead, an era of contracted demand means that institutions need to be more strategic, intentional, and agile with their recruitment resources. 星空影视can help your team connect with prospective students faster and easier. With strong networks all over the world, including in the areas where demand for UK study visas continues to grow, our work to ensure higher conversion rates can make a meaningful difference both to your institution and hopeful international students.
If you鈥檙e part of a team that鈥檚 interested in receiving specific insights tailored to your institution鈥檚 international recruitment goals, reach out to ApplyBoard鈥檚 Partner Relations team. We鈥檒l work with you to identify the best diversification opportunities with current, actionable data that can help your institution thrive even in times of change.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All enrolment data courtesy of . Academic years are from August of the previous year to July of the given year.
2. All sponsored study visa data courtesy of the . Year ending June measures July of the previous year to June of the given year.
3. The growth rate for postgraduate enrolment was 22.4% for 2022/23. The decline in study visas issued for H1 2024 was 22.9%.
4. Note that these figures are not directly comparable. The enrolment data comprises the entire international student body, while the student visas issued data comprises new visa issuances to main applicants only.
