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The US international education sector breathed a collective sigh of relief last week when the Institute of International Education released its 2022 Open Doors data, confirming what many industry professionals were predicting鈥攅nrollment numbers bounced back strong.

Last week, we covered some of the top-line takeaways from this release, focusing on study level and field of study trends.

Today, we鈥檙e breaking things down by region. How does the shifting India-China dynamic affect other international students studying in the US? Is the surge in European enrollment in the US a product of funding cuts in the UK? And which countries have emerged as some of the most promising source markets for US schools?

We tackle these questions and more in the second half of our 2022 Open Doors coverage.

Movement at the Top: India and China

China and India have been the top two source markets in the United States for the past 20 years, in that order. And while that hierarchy remained intact this year, the gap between the two countries is closing.

As we鈥檝e seen in many other major destination markets, the number of is rising and . In the first full post-pandemic academic year for the US, the ceiling for growth among source markets was expected to be very lofty.

India lived up to this expectation, as US institutions hosted over 199,000 Indian students this year, an increase of nearly 19%. China, however, was one of just three countries among the top 20 US source markets that posted a decline in enrollment during the same period (-8.6%).

Here鈥檚 what enrollment for these two markets has looked like since the 2014/15 academic year:

In 2019/20, Chinese enrollment began to trend downward. We were looking at a fairly small pre-pandemic sample size, which made it difficult to make any bold claims about the future of China as a source market. But post-pandemic 2022 data confirms pre-pandemic suspicions that China is transitioning from a major source market to a destination market of its own.

Due to China鈥檚 sheer population, Chinese students will likely always compose a vital part of the US international education sector. But investments in local post-secondary education and international recruitment in China are incentivizing many Chinese students to stay home and study.

In our 2023 Trends Report, we break down the latest trends concerning the shuffling of India and China.

This will no doubt open up doors for other emerging markets that are poised to make their mark on US international education. As for India, it remains one of the most consistent, high-potential markets in the world and is showing no signs of slowing down. We expect India to overtake China as the number one source market in the US over the next five years.

US Gaining Market Share in the Wake of Brexit

One of the most exciting trends that has emerged from the 2022 Open Doors data release is the vault European countries are making up the rankings. In the 2021/22 academic year, four of the top five countries ranked by increase in enrollment were European countries:

This is encouraging news for Germany, Spain, France, and the UK, but it also comes as a pretty big surprise. If we compare these rankings to last year, no European country made an appearance on the top 20 rankings of countries by increased enrollment. While the post-pandemic enrollment boost is definitely a factor at play here, we鈥檙e looking to Brexit as a key driver of this US interest.

Prior to Brexit, students from all EU countries were offered subsidized tuition rates to attend university at UK institutions. As UK universities restructure their tuition rates, discounts are no longer being provided to EU students, incentivizing them to look elsewhere for an international degree.

In 2021/22, Europe saw a 22.4% average increase in US enrollment per country, ranking first among all sub-continents.

As EU students redirect their focus to the United States in response to UK tuition fee increases, expect this British wave of interest to continue building over the coming years. The US international education sector has been largely occupied with Asian and African students for the past two decades, but we could be looking at a more balanced distribution in wake of Brexit.

STEM Interest Driving Asian Growth

Packed with highly populated countries, Asia has always produced international students that have a strong presence at US universities. Asia accounted for five of the top six markets in 2021/22: China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan.

South and Central Asian markets also posted a collective 18% increase in enrollment rates in 2021/22, ranking second among all sub-continents.

But aside from large volumes of potential students, what else is driving Asian students to the US? The top field of study data for 2021/22 tells us it鈥檚 STEM subjects.

Among the top 25 source markets in 2021/22, an average of 47% of students pursued a degree in STEM. There were 12 markets that exceeded that average, 11 of which were from Asia. STEM is already considered one of the most popular fields of study among students, but this rings especially true for Asian students.

The combination of top STEM schools based in the US and promising post-graduate work opportunities in these fields looks to be piquing the interest of Asian International students. US institutions should be mindful of this when recruiting from Asian markets.

One nation that will be important to watch over the next few years is Bangladesh. Not only did Bangladeshi students pursue STEM at a higher rate than any other country in 2021/22, but they were also the fastest-growing country in Asia by US international enrollment. Ranking 13th this year, we would not be surprised to see Bangladesh crack the top 10 in 2022/23.

Looking Forward

The most recent Open Doors data release is evidence that international education is an ecosystem. When one side gives, the other side takes. We鈥檙e seeing this with the see-saw of growing Indian interest and shifting Chinese priorities. It鈥檚 also on display with UK policy changes influencing European enrolment rates in the US.

The common denominator underlying all of these reactions? Student choice. As international education becomes a more popular, accessible product for people around the world, it鈥檚 important to be mindful of how a headline in one hemisphere can catalyze a trend in the other.

This year in the US, the growing appeal of STEM, rising European interest, and Indian dominance are all partial products of choices made by students in other parts of the world. If you鈥檙e interested in learning more about how student choice will impact the future of international education, we encourage you to check out ApplyBoard鈥檚 2023 Trends Report.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the Institute of International Education (IIE) .