While the United Kingdom has always seen high international student demand, student mobility towards the UK has been reduced in recent years. The dependants policy change, the Graduate Route review, and all weakened student flows to UK institutions in 2024.

Despite these challenges, international student interest in the UK is also on the rise. In fact, in our Fall 2024 RP Pulse Survey, the UK ranked as the second most attractive study destination, surpassing Canada amidst a year of Canadian policy changes. With student interest towards destinations like Canada and Australia falling, UK institutions—and specifically UK universities—have an opportunity to reverse year-over-year declines and make 2025 a year of growth.

That’s why today, we’re taking a close look at new international undergraduate trends at UK universities, based on the latest University and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) data release. We’ll dive into which undergrad populations are growing at UK universities, the challenges these universities face due to the 2023 dependants policy, and how UK institutions can capitalize on student demand shifting away from Canada and Australia.

Undergrad Acceptances for International Students Continue to Slowly Decline

As we observed in our analysis of August’s UK Home Office data, new international student populations in the UK have broadly declined since mid-2023. However, when it comes to the number of international undergraduate students at UK universities, weakened demand is a longer-term trend.

In fact, new international undergraduate admissions at UK universities were 17% lower in 2024 than they were in 2020:

From 2020 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, new international undergrad acceptances fell by around 20%. After a small (4%) rise in 2022, international undergrad volumes slowly decreased by around 1% in both 2023 and 2024. This limited recovery and trickling decline mean that in 2024, international undergrad acceptances hit their second lowest figure in the past decade.

For the year ending June 2024, the UK issued over 432,000 sponsored study visas to main application international students, according to UK Home Office data. That represents a decline of 13% from the previous year.

Brexit a Leading Cause of International Student Population Drops

The leading cause of these declines can be traced back to the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) in 2020.

Since Brexit introduced new barriers for students from EU countries to study in the UK, fewer of these students have pursued undergrad courses in the UK each year:

While Brexit nearly coincided with the start of the pandemic, international undergrad volumes from non-EU countries actually rose in 2020 and 2021, hitting their peak in 2022. By contrast, new EU undergrad students fell by 57% over the same period. Additionally, the EU figure is largely buffered by growing interest from Irish students. Across all other EU nations, new undergrad acceptances at UK universities dropped by 70% from 2020 to 2024.

Declining Student Populations Among UK International Undergrads

Over the past year, international undergraduate student volumes have been relatively stable. Yet the 1% overall decline in acceptances from 2023 to 2024 obscures some larger shifts among new undergrad populations:

While three of the largest relative year-over-year declines came from EU students—Italy, Germany, and Greece—new undergrad inflows were down across many regions. Of the 162 student populations that saw at least 10 students accepted for undergrad programs at UK universities in 2024, 108 of those (67%) experienced no growth or negative growth compared to 2023. This was comparable to the number of student populations that saw fewer sponsored study visas over the same period.

For some of these student populations, these trends reflect economic factors such as or declining GDP in a student’s country of origin. Others may be influenced by increased efforts from nearby European destinations such as and to attract international students.

In our Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, student interest in studying in Germany nearly surpassed interest in Australian institutions. Students also reported over 60 different destinations beyond the ‘Big Four’ where they are considering studying.

This weaker demand also reflects the UK government’s dependants policy change enacted in May 2023:

Since this policy came into effect, many source markets with high dependant to main applicant ratios have experienced more substantial declines. The two most notable, Nigeria and Sri Lanka, were two of the fastest-declining student populations in the UK overall from 2023 to 2024.

Critically, this revised dependants policy has also affected the number of Indian students pursuing undergrad education in the UK. While new undergrad student volumes from India nearly doubled between 2019 and 2023—helping India surpass Hong Kong as the second largest source market for new undergraduate students at UK universities—their overall volume fell by 4% over the past year. Despite this drop, Indian students still accounted for 8% of all new international undergrads at UK universities in 2024, up from 5% in 2020.

The 2022/23 academic year was a banner year for international enrolment in the UK, with UK institutions hosting nearly 760,000 students. Indian student enrolments led this growth, increasing by 39% from the 2021/22 academic year.

Which International Undergrad Populations Are Rising at UK Universities?

Even with undergrad population declines across various source markets, overall UK undergrad acceptances remained relatively stable in 2024.

This was primarily due to a similar diversity of growing student populations from across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and North America:

Türkiye was the largest source of international undergrad growth from 2023 to 2024, with acceptances for Turkish students up 34% year-over-year. This growth helped Türkiye climb into the top ten source markets, surpassing Nigeria, France, and Spain.

Many of the top ten source markets for new international undergrads at UK universities saw modest growth in 2024. In fact, new undergrad acceptances for students from Ireland, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Canada hit all-time highs in 2024.

While these growing student populations helped mitigate overall declines, their impact on total new undergrad stability may be short lived. Ireland and Canada have relatively low potential for significant growth in future years, given that they are themselves popular destinations for international students. And, the United Arab Emirates’ includes plans to keep domestic students at local universities while attracting more international students as well.

Chinese Students Represent a Quarter of New International Undergrads at UK Universities

Limited growth potential among the top ten source markets coupled with declines across previously growing sources has made UK universities more dependent on their largest new undergrad population: students from China.

The number of new Chinese undergrads accepted to UK universities has climbed significantly over the past decade. In 2015, just over 5,500 Chinese undergraduate students were accepted for courses at UK universities. But by 2022, this number rose to over 16,500, an increase of 200% in just seven years.

While Chinese undergraduates accounted for under 9% of all new acceptances at UK universities in 2015, their share of the total new international undergrad population has continued to rise:

In 2020, Chinese undergrads accounted for more acceptances than the rest of the top five source markets combined. By 2024, nearly one in every four students accepted to a UK university undergrad program was from China.

This long-term growth has provided stability to UK universities throughout the challenges presented by the pandemic, Brexit, and the dependants policy. However, even the strong Chinese student market experiences shifting trends: From 2022 to 2024, the number of new Chinese undergrads accepted into UK undergrad courses dropped by over 10%. With experts , this high proportion of students from one source market could expose UK universities to higher volatility.

Global Policy Shifts Create New Opportunities for UK Universities

Although UK universities face challenges around diversifying their international student populations, they may be at the precipice of renewed opportunity in 2025. International student interest in studying in the UK is on the rise, and UK universities continue to rank as some of the .

By leveraging this momentum, UK universities are poised to attract students who are reconsidering their study abroad options in a landscape of policy changes. Both Canadian and Australian universities have international student caps for 2025, and these countries’ post-study work visas (Temporary Graduate in Australia and Post-Graduation Work Permit in Canada) have become more restrictive. Meanwhile, the preservation of the UK’s Graduate Route means that international graduates from UK institutions still enjoy strong post-graduation work opportunities.

In our recent Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, the potential of securing a post-graduation work visa was the second most important factor students reported considering when choosing where to study abroad.

Moving forward, universities in the UK should lean into their strengths to increase diversity and attract international undergraduates. Their prestigious reputation, high-quality education, and historic campuses already work in their favour. Now, UK institutions can also promote their relative policy stability, with the UK’s new Labour government promising to and support the Graduate Route.

While the years ahead will not be without challenges for universities in the UK, institutions that are responsive to shifting student demand and who understand increased student mobility in emerging markets can increase campus diversity and attract more international undergraduates. For more strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your UK institution can maximize conversion rates and drive student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the , unless otherwise noted. All UCAS data referenced herein is based on acceptances to UK university courses. The use of year throughout this article means from 28 days after Level 3 results day in a given year to the same calculated point in the next year.

2. UCAS data is rounded to the nearest 10 for each calculated category, following . Due to this rounding, summed figures may not remain equal across all categorizations.

The post UK Undergraduate Admissions for 2024 Reveal Shifting International Student Populations appeared first on ApplyBoard.

2024 has been a nearly unprecedented year for changes in the international education sector. Policy updates. Geopolitical shifts. A rising cost of living around the world. It’s a lot for future international students to keep in mind, on top of course and visa applications, finding housing, and everything else that goes into starting their study abroad journey.

As the international education sector continues to shift, understanding how prospective students feel and what they think about the challenges and opportunities they face is more important than ever. To better understand their perceptions and experiences, we connected with over 1,500 students from almost 100 countries in the latest edition of our Student Pulse Survey.¹ They shared which destinations had caught their eye, what motivates them to study abroad, and which factors are most likely to shape their decisions. Read on for a closer look at study level trends, which study destinations are gaining ground, and more.

Future International Students Show Greater Interest in Postgraduate Study

The policy changes that have defined the international education sector in 2024 have already had a significant impact on weakening student demand. Compared to the Spring 2024 Student Pulse Survey, interest in all levels of study fell except for master’s degrees, PhDs or other doctoral degrees, and secondary school (high school):

In a trend continuing from our Spring 2024 survey, the vast majority of participants were interested in postgraduate-level study (89% in Fall 2024). This six percentage point increase in half a year may indicate students’ awareness of the advantages of studying abroad at the postgraduate level, whether due to increased flexibility in bringing dependents or more generous post-study work visas.

However, this increased interest isn’t shared equally across all postgraduate programs. Interest in postgraduate degrees and certificates actually dropped over the past six months. This decline is likely caused by student awareness of policy changes that decrease access to post-study opportunities—like updates to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program—for non-degree graduates.

Popularity of European and Asian Destinations Rises, As Does Interest in the Big Four

In looking at where future international students would like to study, 64% of survey participants were focused on the “Big Four” destinations—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This percentage is higher than it was in our last Student Pulse survey, where 57% of students were interested solely in studying in the Big Four. While our survey is a small sample of the global student population, it’s interesting to see stronger interest in these markets given recent policy changes that have negatively affected ease of student mobility.

When asked about country-specific interest levels, students shared lower interest in Australia and Canada and higher interest in the UK and the US compared to our Spring 2024 findings. This echoed sentiments from education professionals in our most recent Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey.

In fact, in our Fall 2024 Student Pulse survey, more students were “extremely interested” in studying in the US versus any of the other featured countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom). Slightly higher interest at the “very interested” and “moderately interested” levels for study in Canada meant that the US remained in second place, but Canada’s lead has shrunk notably over the past six months:

Europe Home to the Majority of Alternate Study Destinations

While the percentage of students who are looking beyond the Big Four decreased by seven percentage points to 36% in our Fall 2024 survey, these students have a truly global outlook. They shared over 60 different destinations where they’d like to study:

While Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden were top-of-mind, respondents shared their interest in studying across Europe. They listed over 30 European countries as potential destinations.

Looking beyond Europe, Japan and South Korea represented Asia in the top ten study destinations, at seventh and tenth place respectively. This edition of the survey also showed students’ strong interest in China and Singapore. Middle Eastern destinations like the United Arab Emirates (particularly its capital, Dubai), ��ü���쾱���, and Qatar are of increased interest to these students, as well. And, for the first time for this question, students shared their interest in African destinations like Egypt and South Africa. As new study destinations emerge—in this survey, respondents listed six more markets than they did in Spring 2024—it’s important that academic institutions in established destinations continue to connect with their target student audiences to share why their institution remains an excellent option.

Career Goals Align With High-Demand STEM and Health Care Fields

When asked about their future careers, many students planned to join fields which are expanding rapidly and in need of new grads. Many students aim to start or build on careers in business and entrepreneurship, or STEM,³ particularly in engineering and technology. They’ll enter a workforce which needs their skills: whether in the US, where STEM jobs are projected to grow at over twice the rate of all other careers until 2031,⁴ or in the UK, which is projected to add 1.9 STEM professionals to its workforce by 2035.⁵ Students also shared many different health care careers (nursing was the third-most popular career goal), but respondents also dream of becoming surgeons, doctors, public health officers, and therapists:

Several students also included sustainability and ethics in their career goals, whether as white-hat hackers, non-governmental organization workers, or environmental scientists. These career paths hint at their desire to build a brighter future, as this response outlines:

To come back here in Mali to share my knowledge in our community to help our young people have a stable life. Especially also put a reforestation project in my city, which is one of the hottest localities in West Africa.
– Student response to “What career(s) do you plan to pursue after completing your studies?

More Students Than Ever Plan to Balance Study with Work

When it comes to ensuring students have the financial ability to pay for their studies, more students are considering working while abroad. Only around 2% of surveyed international students did not plan to work in any capacity while studying, according to our Fall 2024 Student Pulse Survey. This is even lower than our Spring 2024 findings, where nearly 3% of international students didn’t plan to work.

Students also expect to be working more: 59% of students planned to work more than 20 hours per week if allowed, versus 46% of respondents in the Spring survey. However, slightly fewer students planned to do a co-op or work term as part of their studies: 32% expected to do some work-integrated learning, versus 39% in Spring 2024.

These findings of increased student focus on work were echoed when we asked what drove students to consider studying abroad, and how they chose a destination. Over two-thirds of respondents ranked “building a professional or academic network,” “preparing for a job in my chosen field,” and “the quality of institutions is higher than in my home country” as extremely influential factors on their decision.

Accessibility and Employability Key Factors for Study Destinations

Meanwhile, top factors influencing study destination choice in Fall 2024 included accessibility and graduate outcomes, versus institution ranking or a welcoming atmosphere. The ability to get a student visa took the top spot, and the ability to work in their host country after graduation was the next most important factor, followed by the destination’s overall reputation:

The ability to obtain a student visa rose from the fourth- or fifth-most important factor in our last two surveys to the top factor for most prospective international students. In fact, 37% of respondents chose it as the most important factor when deciding where to study. This shift may speak to how a year of policy updates has made getting a student visa more of a limiting factor around destination choice.

It’s also interesting to see “welcoming to international students” fall to near the bottom of this list. Almost 45% of students chose it as one of their top five factors in the Spring 2024 survey, and it was the most important factor in our Fall 2023 survey. Throughout 2024, several countries adopted more restrictive international education measures, like or visa processing fees. Australia’s soft cap on the number of international students it would admit in 2025 and Canada’s updated study permit caps for 2025, along with revised PGWP eligibility criteria are likely also shaping how students see these destinations. So, seeing the reduced importance of a welcoming environment is arguably evidence of international student resilience: Even in challenging times, they’re not giving up on their goals.

What These Survey Results Mean for Institutions

For institutions looking to maintain and build their international student population, adapting to shifting student preferences is vital. Here are a few recommendations of what institutions can do to support student success:

• Per our most recent survey, students value a school’s strong reputation more than its formal global or national rankings. Sharing your institution’s strengths via student testimonials, your alumni network, in-market events, and social media may lead to an influx of interest from future students.
• 2024 has been a year of intense change and students may be deferring their enrolment, or reconsidering their options. To help retain them, it’s vital for institutions to keep open lines of communication around policy changes, official links to student visa information, key academic calendar dates, and more. Helping students feel like they’re part of the campus community even before arrival can make them more likely to follow through with their enrolment and future academic growth.
• Part-time work is a reality for most international students. To help students balance study and work without jeopardizing their student visa, highlight specific opportunities through your institution’s relationships with local industry, co-op programs, or unique research avenues. Have strong graduate employment rates? Share those in admissions materials so students can easily imagine the path from their course or program to their future career.

We hope these insights are helpful to you and your team. Stay tuned for our next Pulse Surveys for students and recruitment professionals which will launch in Spring 2025.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The Fall 2024 Student Pulse Survey ran from September 30, 2024 to October 14, 2024. We received 1,524 responses from individuals in 94 countries.

2. “Big Four” destinations include the most popular countries for post-secondary education in English: Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

3. “STEM” refers to the fields of science, technology, engineering, and math.

4. Emily Krutsch and Victoria Roderick, U.S. Department of Labor Blog, “.” November 4, 2022.

5. Universities UK, “.” Updated October 2024.

The post International Student Interest in Postgraduate Studies and US Institutions On the Rise appeared first on ApplyBoard.

For many international students looking to study abroad, post-graduation work opportunities are a key consideration. Post-graduation work programs offer students a chance to gain experience in their chosen sector, setting them up for success in their career. And, for students looking to stay in the country they study in, post-graduation work can be a key step towards permanent residency.

Over the past two decades, Canada’s has been a major draw for international students. In fact, over 1 million PGWPs have been approved since the program began.¹ But recent government policy changes are set to limit PGWP eligibility for future international students in Canada.

Here, we’re taking a detailed look at what impact these policy changes might have on the demand for international education in Canada. We’ll look at PGWP trends over the past five years, how new PGWP field of study requirements will affect Canadian colleges and universities, and which province is poised to be the most impacted by revised program requirements.

Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) a Key Driver of Student Interest

Over the past five years, student interest in Canada’s PGWP program has reached new heights. In spite of the slowdowns created by the COVID-19 pandemic, PGWP approvals remained above 120,000 in each year from 2020 to 2022. Then, in 2023, program approvals surged:

In 2023, over 216,000 PGWPs were approved for international graduates, an increase of 67% from 2022. And this high-water mark is expected to rise even further by the end of 2024 to nearly 220,000, based on PGWP approvals through the first six months of the year.

This substantial growth in 2023 and 2024 was caused by a few key factors. The first is the overall rise in international students studying in Canada: There were over 1 million study permit holders in Canada as of December 31, 2023, compared to only 530,000 in 2020. The second is the influence of the post-pandemic “double cohort”, where pent-up demand during the pandemic resulted in higher student enrollments in 2022. Given that students must graduate from their program to apply for PGWP, this post-pandemic growth had a delayed impact on PGWP volumes.

Finally, students are placing increased priority on post-graduation work programs. In our latest RP Pulse Survey, post-graduation work opportunities were the second most important factor for students considering studying abroad. This was also reflected in our last Student Pulse Survey, where being able to attain a work visa after graduation was the number one student priority when deciding where to pursue their education.

Next week, we’ll release our Q3 2024 Student Pulse Survey results. Subscribe to ApplyInsights below to ensure you don’t miss our latest insights!

Changes to Canada’s PGWP Program

Despite this rising student focus on post-study work, demand for Canada’s PGWP program is likely to decrease.

On October 4, 2024, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship announced , set to take effect on November 1, 2024. These changes, aimed at aligning student outcomes with Canadian labour market needs, include introducing new proof of language requirements for all PGWP applicants after November 1 as well as field of study limitations for college and non-degree university graduates.²

However, these changes only apply to future students who submit their study permit application on or after November 1, 2024. This means that we’re likely to see a spike in study permit application volumes before the end of October, as students aim to qualify for the previous PGWP program requirements.

The specific effects these updates will have on longer-term student demand are more difficult to quantify. The recent announcement of 2025 and 2026 international student caps was already poised to weaken demand towards Canadian institutions, above and beyond the declines we’ve already seen in 2024.

Equally, it’s important to note that the first students affected by these PGWP field of study policy changes likely won’t graduate until at least 2026.³ The pipeline from initial study permit application to program graduation is typically at least 18 months for short-duration college and non-degree programs, two of the main study levels impacted by the announced changes.

Impact of PGWP Changes on Canadian Colleges and Universities

With new field of study requirements affecting both college and non-degree university graduates, all Canadian post-secondary institutions should anticipate some direct impacts. But Canadian colleges will likely see the largest changes in student demand, especially since they have taught the majority of approved PGWP applicants over the past five years:

From January 2020 to June 2024,⁴ college graduates accounted for around 60% of all PGWP approvals. There were nearly twice as many PGWPs approved for college graduates as university graduates in 2023, and we expect this trend to continue in 2024.

Starting in 2026, however, this balance will very likely shift towards a more equal proportion of college and university graduates. As graduates from most university programs are exempt from the new PGWP field of study requirements,⁵ a university degree will allow students to pursue work aligned with their career of choice, regardless of their study program. But the length and cost of university studies will likely remain a barrier for some students, and others will remain more interested in the applied learning environment offered at Canadian colleges.

PGWP Field of Study Eligibility Will Influence Program Choices

To better gauge the specific impact of new field of study requirements, let’s look at field of study trends for college and non-degree university students approved for a PGWP.⁶

College Graduates

Business and Management programs have been the most popular choice for study permit applicants headed to Canadian colleges over the last five years. In parallel, college grads from these programs have also accounted for the most PGWP approvals:

In 2023, half of all new study permits approved for college students were for business-related programs. In the same year, Business and Management program graduates held 50% of all PGWPs approved for college grads. In fact, these college business graduates accounted for 30% of all PGWPs approved in 2023, across all study levels and fields of study.

Under PGWP’s new labour alignment requirements, many of these graduates would likely be ineligible for a post-study work visa.⁷ Assuming that at least 75% of business program graduates will soon be ineligible for PGWP, international student populations could decline by 25% or more at Canadian colleges in 2025—beyond the current 2024 declines—based on PGWP field of study trends.

However, this impact may be somewhat mitigated by students who pivot to pursue a different field of study that aligns with the new guidelines. As such, we anticipate that the total volume of international students pursuing a college education in Canada will decline in 2025 and 2026, but likely not by the full magnitude of current business student populations.

Non-Degree University Graduates

By comparison, significantly fewer non-degree university graduates are approved for post-graduation work permits, largely due to fewer students pursuing an education at this study level. In fact, in 2023, fewer than 6,500 PGWPs were approved for these students. That’s less than 5% of the college graduates approved for PGWPs in the same year.

However, like their college counterparts, non-degree university graduates applying for PGWPs are often business program grads:

Through 2023 and the first six months of 2024, nearly two of every three non-degree university grads approved for PGWP completed a Business and Management program. Over 4,000 non-degree business grads received PGWP approval in 2023, compared to just over 2,000 for all other fields of study.

Non-degree studies accounted for only 16% of all new study permit approvals for Canadian universities in 2023. As such, a major drop in non-degree business students could lead to a decline of nearly 10% in new international student cohorts at Canadian universities. Still, compared to colleges, universities are largely insulated from the effects of these PGWP program changes.

Strongest Impact of PGWP Changes Will be Felt by Ontario Colleges

Over the next few years, institutions across Canada must adapt to shifting student demand. But institutions throughout Ontario, particularly Ontario colleges, will be the most impacted by these new PGWP requirements.

This is due to Ontario’s considerable international college student population, compared to the rest of the country:

Last year, the number of Ontario college grads approved for PGWP increased by nearly 120% year-over-year. While PGWP approvals for non-Ontario college grads also rose in 2023, it was at a lower rate of 20%. As a result, Ontario college grads received 75% of all PGWPs approved for college graduates in 2023, and 42% of PGWPs across all study levels in the same year.

As the most popular province for international students pursuing college programs, Ontario is in line to experience the greatest demand volatility in the years to come. Although we expect PGWP approvals for Ontario college grads to decline slightly in 2024, before new PGWP requirements take effect, study permit caps and field of study limitations for future years will likely cause this decline to persist into 2025 and beyond.

New Post-Graduate Work Policies Aim to Improve Student Success

�ǿ�Ӱ��has long recognized that PGWP reforms have the potential to ultimately benefit students, institutions, and regions across Canada. Aligning Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit program eligibility with labour market needs can help to ensure the continued success of international students while encouraging Canadian economic growth. But coupled with recent cap announcements for 2025, Canada’s brand as a welcoming destination for international students has weakened and institutions will need to take on a greater role promoting the benefits of studying in Canada.

These multiple recent policy changes mean that it will be difficult to fully gauge the effects of field of study requirements on overall student demand in the months and years ahead. We know that business programs, especially at Canadian colleges, are extremely likely to see decreased international student enrollment for all cohorts after November 1, 2024. But what is unclear is whether students will shift their preferences towards PGWP-eligible programs like STEM college programs or university degrees, or if they will consider other study abroad destinations instead.

Health care and STEM will be the highest in-demand sectors for jobs in the next decade, and �ǿ�Ӱ��students are shifting their interest toward these fields.

Looking Ahead

Ultimately, access to a post-study work visa is a vital consideration for many prospective international students. While current international students—and those who have already submitted a study permit application—will be minimally affected by the latest PGWP changes, these policies will have lasting impacts on Canada’s international education sector and economy. Declining student demand may also lead Canadian institutions to make difficult decisions such as delaying or cancelling housing projects, cutting programs, and raising tuition fees for domestic students.

In uncertain times, maximizing conversion rates will become more important than ever for Canadian institutions. For strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your Canadian institution can improve conversion rates while driving student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted.

2. Field of study requirements are linked to certain occupations in long-term shortage, based on .

3. Taking into account the time frames between student study permit application submission, IRCC processing and approval, the student coming to Canada and beginning their studies, and the student’s graduation from their selected program.

4. More recent IRCC not available at this time.

5. Bachelor’s, master’s, and PhD graduates are all exempt from IRCC’s new PGWP field of study requirements for students who submit their study permit application after November 1, 2024.

6. Field of study is the most granular level of IRCC data available related to program enrollment.

7. Some transport-related fields of study that often fall under Business program designations—such as transportation management and logistics, materials, and supply chain management—as well as agribusiness programs remain eligible under prescribed CIP classifications.

The post How Will PGWP Program Changes Impact International Education in Canada? appeared first on ApplyBoard.

Since the introduction of Canada’s international student cap at the start of 2024, the Canadian government has given special attention to protecting postgraduate studies.¹ For 2024, the graduate level was exempt from the cap. And, while study permits for this level have been rolled into the 2025 and 2026 caps, .

Despite these measures, demand for a graduate-level education in Canada has cooled since the introduction of the student cap. In fact, last month, we projected that graduate-level applications will drop 24% in 2024 compared to 2023.

So today, we’re diving deeper into the early impacts of Canada’s international student cap on new postgraduate student visas.² We’ll look at the graduate visa trends for provinces, fields of study, and student populations. With the about further restrictions to the 2025 cap, these insights can provide valuable starting points for strategic planning into next year.

The Falling Demand for a Canadian Postgraduate Degree

Canada’s postgraduate level was growing at a steady rate prior to the implementation of the international student cap. In fact, graduate visa approvals grew nearly 100% from 2019 to 2023:

Approvals at the graduate level grew by 9% year-over-year in both 2022 and 2023. The master’s level drove this growth, up 13% and 11% in each respective year. The master’s level accounted for about 90% of graduate student approvals in both years. Approvals at the PhD level, on the other hand, had already been trending downward before the cap, dropping 15% year-over-year in 2022 and another 7% in 2023.

2024 will very likely see a sharp reversal of the overall graduate level trend, as only 17,500 graduate students had their study permit approved during the first half of the year (H1). Diving into the monthly data shows that demand cooled significantly:⁴

Graduate study permit approvals were down 35% in Jan–Jun 2024 compared to the first six months in 2023. Declining approval rates during this span—down from 66% in H1 2023 to 56% in H1 2024—contributed somewhat to the overall approval drop. But applications fell by 23% over the same period, much higher than the approval rate drop. This drop in applications ultimately shows that the lower approval numbers were more the result of falling demand rather than reduced student quality.

For comparison, approvals at the undergraduate level were down 46% in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, while applications declined 38% over this period. Looking at just Q2 2024 (as institutions generally paused their new application intakes while provinces implemented new Provincial Application Letter processes in February and March), approvals and applications were down 52% and 47%, respectively.⁵ This means the graduate level declined at a slower rate than the undergraduate level, though this was to be expected given that the latter was subject to the 2024 student cap while the former was exempt.

IRCC approved 11,700 international students for a Canadian study permit in postgraduate studies in Q2 2024, down 35% from the 18,100 students during the same period of 2023.

The International Student Cap’s Early Impact on Postgraduate Studies in Every Canadian Province

The falling demand for a Canadian postgraduate degree impacted Canada’s provinces nearly across the board:

9 of Canada’s 10 provinces saw a double-digit decline in the number of postgraduate visa approvals in H1 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year. In fact, approvals dropped by 20% or more year-over-year in 8 of 10 provinces. Manitoba was the only province to see its postgraduate study level avoid significant declines, as the number of postgraduate study permit approvals grew by 8% in Jan–Jun 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023.

The early results of this widespread, cooled demand has led to a greater consolidation of postgraduate students in Ontario. Ontario accounted for 29% of all postgraduate approvals in H1 2023. But in H1 2024, this grew to 35%. Ontario’s proportional growth was mostly captured from British Columbia, which saw its market share of postgraduate student approvals fall from 34% in Jan–Jun 2023 to 28% in the same period in 2024.

The International Student Cap’s Early Impact on Postgraduate Fields of Study

The decline in new graduate study permits was felt across nearly every province. So, unsurprisingly, most postgraduate fields of study saw a demand drop in H1 2024. But not all fields of study experiences the same level of decline:

Arts, Social Science, and Humanities accounted for 10% of postgraduate approvals in H1 2023, but only 5% in H1 2024. That’s because just 900 international students were approved for a study permit for this field in H1 2024. Both approvals and applications were down over 60% compared to H1 2023, suggesting that the field is experiencing a cooling of demand rather than lower student quality—if approvals were down due to declining quality, application volumes would have remained at similar levels as the previous year.

The proportion of graduate visa approvals for business and management programs dropped three percentage points from Jan–Jun 2023 to Jan–Jun 2024, while engineering was down two percentage points over this period. Computing and IT rose by one percentage point, while the Other field accounted for the bulk of gains.⁶

Health care and STEM will be the highest in-demand sectors for jobs in the next decade, and ApplyBoardian students are shifting their demand toward these fields.

The Student Populations Pursuing Postgraduate Studies in Canada in 2024

International student diversity has always been critical. Diversity helps institutions mitigate against potential inflow downturns due to geopolitical tensions, while also broadens the student experience through the inclusion of multiple perspectives.

The downward trends in H1 2024 demonstrate the importance of diversity:

Through the first half of 2024, Canada’s postgraduate level saw a significant drop in demand from Indian students. Graduate study permit applications from Indian students were down 57% in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, even as approval rates rose to 87% compared to 77% over the same period. As a result, the overall number of postgraduate approvals for Indian students was halved from Jan–Jun 2023 to Jan–Jun 2024.

The Indian student population was not the only one in which demand for a Canadian postgraduate education cooled. IRCC approved at least 35% fewer study permits for Iranian (-39%), Nigerian (-59%), Algerian (50%), and Pakistani (-35%) postgraduate students in the first half of 2024 vs. the first half of 2023. Approvals for students from France (-42%) and the US (-20%) also fell significantly year-over-year, even as students from these two western countries continued to see approval rates exceeding 90%.

On a positive note, there were some student populations bucking the downward trend. Study permit approvals for graduate students from China (+4%), Ghana (+11%), the Philippines (+15%), Colombia (+5%), and Brazil (+17%) all rose in H1 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Read more about how Ghana is poised to help drive increased international student diversity across the globe.

Key Takeaways Leading into 2025

It’s important to remember that destination markets don’t operate in a vacuum—policies in one country can push or pull students from another. For instance, four in every five respondents in our latest Recruitment Pulse Survey agreed that Canada’s decisions to limit study permit applications made it a less desirable destination. This resulted in the US rising to the most attractive study destination among respondents for the first time ever in the survey’s history.

With this in mind, Canadian institutions will play a critical role as the sector works toward rebuilding prospective student confidence in Canada’s international education brand. That’s because institutions are pivotal to ensuring students feel welcomed, safe, and supported both during their studies and in their degree-to-career pathway. With prospective students being exposed to more negative news stories about Canada’s international education brand than ever before, creating positive and successful study environments and experiences will be the surest way to counter the rises in negative global sentiment.

Canada will continue to have one of the strongest post-graduation work programs in the world in 2025, and the recent changes to its PGWP program highlighted that both the master’s and doctoral levels will have no additional field of study requirement. This is in addition to IRCC’s stated recognition of . Communicating these positive factors to prospective students could be the difference maker that gives them the confidence that they’ll receive a positive experience during and after their studies in Canada.

We also think the inclusion of postgraduate studies into the cap should help institutions streamline applications and reduce potential complications.⁷ For more strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your Canadian institution can maximize conversion rates and drive student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. For the purposes of this article, postgraduate studies refers only to the Master’s and PhD graduate levels.

2. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. For the purposes of this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.

3. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted.

4. Undergraduate applications were paused for most of February and March as provinces worked toward implementing Provincial Application Letters (PALs) processes. But postgraduate studies should not have been affected by this pause, as these students were exempt from requiring PALs.

5. For just Q2 2024, approvals for the graduate level fell 35% year-over-year, while applications dropped 25%.

6. The Other category includes some specific fields of study—including agriculture, law, and the trades—as well as IRCC’s “Other” designation, which is .

7. Exclusion of particular study levels in the 2024 cap may have had the potential to create further limits on capped study levels. For example, if postgraduate student levels had far exceeded initial estimations, it is unclear if this could have necessitated stricter limits on undergraduate applications.

The post The Early Impacts of Canada’s International Student Cap on Postgraduate Studies appeared first on ApplyBoard.

As students and institutions look ahead to next year, they face an international education landscape changed by government policy announcements. These policies, aimed at supporting more sustainable international student pathways, have already begun shifting student demand. And, significantly, the impacts of these policies are likely to extend beyond just 2025.

2025 will be the first year that half of the “Big Four” destination markets¹ have government-set limits on new international student populations. Canada’s international student cap was rolled out in 2024, with newly-announced reductions to the cap set to come into effect in 2025. Australia is also poised to for 2025, though the necessary legislative amendments have yet to be passed by Australia’s parliament.²

With these caps on the horizon, Australia’s international education sector has limited time to plan and to act. But, by looking toward Canada’s cap experience, Australian institutions can be better prepared and informed about upcoming challenges and opportunities. That’s why today, we’re diving into international student trends in Australia over the past year, the potential impact of the planned student caps, and what Australian institutions can do to support sustainable, diverse international student populations.

Before the Cap: International Student Commencements in Australia for 2023 and 2024

Prior to the proposed cap, Australia benefited from increased student mobility post-pandemic. In 2023, international student commencements across all study levels hit an all time high of nearly 560,000, surpassing the previous high-water mark from 2019 by almost 10%.

And, in the first six months of 2024, international student enrolment continued to rise:

The first half of 2024 also set new records. Including all study levels, there were over 305,000 international student commencements by the end of June 2024, making it the busiest six-month period in Australian history for new international students. We expect that this high student demand will continue throughout the rest of the year, allowing commencements to reach almost 590,000 by the end of 2024.

Higher ed programs accounted for 39% of commencements over this period, with VET programs representing 36%. These strong commencement numbers were largely driven by students from India and China. Collectively, these students accounted for 30% of all commencements in Jan–Jun 2024, including nearly 60% of all higher ed commencements, as they have in each year since 2021.

Australia’s International Student Caps for 2025

While tertiary studies represented 75% of all international student commencements in the first half of 2024, this figure will likely fall in 2025.

That’s because Australia’s is aimed exclusively at limiting tertiary international student commencements. Set to , the NPL will cap higher ed and VET at 270,000 new commencements for the 2025 calendar year. This means that schools, ELICOS, and non-award programs are all unaffected by the planned policy, as are higher degree by research programs.

The NLP will split the commencement cap towards maintaining elevated higher ed student populations. Around 65% of commencements will be , with 145,000 going to public universities and another 30,000 to other higher ed providers. The remaining 95,000 will be .⁵

How Different Will 2025 Look Compared to 2023?

Overall, these changes mean that commencements for international students in 2025 will be limited to around 65% of 2023 volumes for higher ed and VET programs. Given that 2024 commencements are on track to be higher than 2023 levels, this sets the stage for a substantial drop in 2025:

Under the proposed government caps, VET commencements are set to decline significantly, far beyond the impact to Australian universities. VET commencements haven’t been below 100,000 in a calendar year since , when total commencements across all study levels were nearly 50% lower than projected 2024 end of year figures. Higher education commencements, meanwhile, will look nearly identical to 2019 levels.

But these 2025 caps are all government estimates, which means these figures assume each institution will fill their full commencement cap allotment. In other words, this is the ceiling for Australia’s tertiary international education landscape for 2025. But the lessons learned from Canada’s caps show that brand-damaging policies can cool international student demand beyond intentions and expectations.

What Were the Impacts of Canada’s Student Visa Cap?

While Australian tertiary institutions will have limited time to prepare for potentially substantial changes in student demand, they’re not the first to need to adapt to significant government policy changes: Canada enacted international student caps at the start of 2024.⁶ The Canadian caps announcement came as a surprise to the sector, blindsiding most institutions and leaving them scrambling to adjust to their new landscape

Canada’s 2024 caps and the planned Australian 2025 are very similar. Both limit tertiary international student volumes for tertiary studies by around 35% compared to the previous year, and both left other study levels out of cap considerations. On this basis, both policies are likely to have similar effects on student demand.

Looking at initial data on Canadian study permit applications after Canada’s 2024 caps came into effect,⁷ the impact of caps has dampened student demand for all study levels:

Comparing the same period of February to May over the past three years,⁸ Canadian study permit applications declined across all study levels from 2023 to 2024. Applications for university studies largely fell back to 2022 levels while college applications dropped more sharply, falling 70% year-over-year.

Based on current Canadian study permit trends, we project that 39% fewer Canadian study permits will be processed in 2024 compared to 2023. And the impacts of these declines aren’t limited to just tertiary institutions with new student visa caps: Canadian study permit applications are projected to drop for all study levels in 2024. In fact, we project that if conditions remain similar through the end of 2024, the number of Canadian study permit applications processed for cap-exempt programs could drop by 24% compared to 2023.

There’ve been reports that .

Predicting Student Demand for Australian Tertiary Education in 2025

Early student trends from Canada’s caps point in one clear direction: the impact of international student caps don’t just affect the programs and institutions that receive cap allotments. All institutions feel the influence of caps, especially as demand is increasingly tied to whether students feel a destination is welcoming for international students.

Given the close alignment between the Canada 2024 and Australia 2025 cap figures, this could mean that Australia will also experience a near 40% decline in total commencements next year. Taking the tertiary caps into account, even a 10% drop in demand for all other study levels—which, based on what we’re seeing in the Canada’s exempt postgraduate studies field, is likely a significant underestimate—would result in Australia’s overall commencements dropping by 26% in 2025 compared to 2023:

Given that Canadian institutions experienced a sharper demand drop than illustrated above, it’s likely that a 26% decline year-over-year understates the potential impact of the NLP. If the demand decline in non-tertiary studies were to mirror the decline imposed by the cap,⁹ total commencements would drop to less than 378,000 in 2025. This would set new international student populations in Australia back by a decade, aligning with 2015 volumes.

What Australian Institutions Can Do to Prepare for the 2025 Caps

While the NLP is intended to make Australia’s international education sector more sustainable, Australia’s tertiary institutions face a stark challenge in adapting to the planned changes. Additionally, as we’ve outlined above, all Australian institutions who welcome international students need to prepare for an overall decline in student demand next year.

In our recent Q3 2024 �ǿ�Ӱ��RP Pulse Survey, 75% of recruitment partners agreed that Australia’s study visa caps make it a less attractive destination for international students.

International students of all levels, whether they are impacted by caps or not, are likely to interpret these new government policies as a sign that newcomers are less welcome in Australia than they used to be. As a result, institutions have an increased role to play in making sure students feel welcome. Institutions can achieve this by ensuring that necessary information about student pathways is easily accessible, and that application systems are responsive and easy to understand.. By reducing or removing other roadblocks that can hinder a student’s application process, Australian institutions can help mitigate some of the surface impacts of cap policies.

Emerging Markets Can Create Sustainable Diversity Pathways

For some Australian universities and especially VET providers, it will be impossible to avoid the impacts of the NLP. But even for those institutions that may avoid significant cap issues, a renewed focus on student diversity is critical for the future stability and sustainability of international education in Australia.

Creating or reinforcing recruitment efforts in a specific region or country is not easy to do in a short timeframe, but focusing on existing and emerging growth markets can yield better outcomes. Across Australia’s 15 largest new tertiary student populations in the first half of 2024, only eight experienced growth compared to the same period in 2023:

Of these eight established student populations, two featured a higher rate of VET commencements: Colombia and Brazil. As major student populations who follow the ELICOS-to-VET pathway, Latin America is likely to remain a key region to ensure all cap allocations can be filled in 2025. By contrast, Australian universities should look to dedicate recruitment resources across Asia to ensure they maximize their cap allotments.

Beyond these established markets, institutions should also look to evolve their recruitment efforts towards emerging student populations:

While tertiary student populations from these five countries may remain relatively small, they all grew significantly from early 2023 to early 2024. Expanding recruitment efforts to Mongolia, ��ü���쾱���, and Cambodia can help bolster regional strategies across Asia. Likewise, broadening Latin American plans to include Chile and Argentina can help reinforce student pathways for Australian institutions.

Australian Institutions Need to Work Together to Achieve Stability

The NLP is set to define international education in Australia in 2025. And while it’s likely to create new challenges for Australian institutions of all levels, it doesn’t close the door on existing opportunities.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to note that the levers of interest that draw students to Australia haven’t changed. Australian work rights and immigration pathways are unaffected by these new policy changes, and overall migration levels to Australia are also beyond the scope of the NLP. By communicating these key facts to potential international students, Australian institutions can reassure students that Australia remains a welcoming destination for studying abroad.

Australian institutions have also already shown their willingness to work together and advocate for the sector as a whole. Maintaining that collaboration throughout 2025—whether through formal associations or informal networks—can create channels to share successful strategies, leverage collective resources, and better support international students.

If you’re planning to attend the in Melbourne on October 22–25, we look forward to seeing you there!

As a mature international education sector, Australia is well poised to learn from Canada’s cap experience and mitigate broader declines in student demand.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. “Big Four” destinations include the most popular countries for post-secondary education in English: Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

2. As of date of publication (October 10, 2024). However, that these amendments will be passed in time for the caps to come into effect for January 2025.

3. A commencement is an enrolment that began at any time within the year in which it appears. If a student continues their program into subsequent years, the commencement will still only reflect in the first year of study. For example, a student who begins their higher ed program in June 2023 will be counted as one commencement in 2023, but if they continue in that program in 2024, they will not count towards commencement figures in 2024.

4. All Australia data courtesy of the and the , and all Canada data courtesy of , unless otherwise noted. All data covers international students studying on student visa subclasses 500 and 570-575 only. All data outlined in this article is based on calendar year reporting, unless otherwise noted.

5. In deciding how many allotments each institution will receive, the Australian government specifically aimed to limit institutions that experienced rapid international student growth in the post-pandemic period. Broadly, the which used international student commencement figures per institution for 2019 as a base. For institutions who experienced international student population growth at 37% or less from 2019 to 2023, allotments were awarded to maintain 2023 international population figures. For all other institutions, a cap of 50% growth over 2019 figures was applied.

6. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enroll in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is approved for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies.

7. Canadian study permit processing for impacted programs stopped nationwide on January 22, 2024, and provinces had to establish and launch their PAL process by March 31, 2024, before processing could restart.

8. More recent data not currently available

9. Approximately 32% for higher ed and VET combined in 2025 compared to 2023 figures.

The post What Australian Institutions Can Learn from Canada’s International Student Cap appeared first on ApplyBoard.

In September 2024, international student counsellors from over 40 countries responded to the year’s second �ǿ�Ӱ��Recruitment Partner (RP) Pulse Survey.¹ They shared which destinations were top-of-mind for students, how top destinations’ safety and affordability are perceived, and how destinations’ domestic policy changes have influenced students’ academic journeys.

Since we ran the previous RP Pulse Survey in March 2024, the international education landscape has continued to shift. Australia announced it would implement a soft cap on the number of international students in 2025 while introducing additional measures. Likewise, Canada announced changes to its Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program and additions to how study permit caps would work in 2025. And the United Kingdom welcomed a new government which has already signaled its support for international students.

Understandably, this high rate of policy change, particularly in Australia and Canada, is reflected in education professionals’ responses to our survey. Read on to learn how the latest survey responses compare to our last two RP Pulse Surveys.² From a gentle upswing in overall interest in studying abroad to surging demand for European destinations, this survey points to students’ evolving perception of—and approach to—international education.

Overall Interest in Study Abroad Stabilizes

In our Spring 2024 RP Pulse Survey, most counsellors noted declining student interest in study abroad programs due, in part, to uncertainty around sector policies and rising affordability concerns. But here’s some good news: the Fall 2024 survey found this trend reversing:

The number of counsellors who saw a significant decrease in interest remained steady across both 2024 RP Pulse Surveys. However, over 40% of counsellors reported a significant or moderate increase in study abroad interest in Fall 2024. That’s an improvement of 9 percentage points compared to Spring 2024.

The US Rises as the Most Attractive Study Destination

Respondents were also asked to share how much six popular study abroad destinations appealed to students. As in our Spring 2024 survey, we looked at Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. While Canada took top spot back in the spring, a different country leads the pack this round:

In a year of sweeping policy changes in many popular destinations, comparative policy and economic stability in the US⁴—plus its highly-regarded academic institutions—likely appealed to students. Our Fall 2024 survey results show the country improving on already strong attractiveness scores from Spring 2024. Importantly, this growing interest has led to action: 2024 marked the third consecutive year where over 100,000 F-1 student visas were issued in the first half of the fiscal year to international students in the US.

Canada’s Attractiveness to International Students Falters

Compared to our Fall 2023 survey, perception of Canada as an “attractive” or “very attractive” destination has dropped by 14 percentage points. This puts Canada behind both the US and the UK for this metric for the first time since the survey started running.

In the last six months alone, those ranking Canada as a “very attractive” destination dropped from 57% to 45%. These changes may reflect a changing outlook among students and recruitment professionals on Canada after a year of comprehensive policy changes.

In a follow-up question, nearly four out of five respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that Canada’s decision to limit study permit applications made it a less desirable destination:

While more details about Canadian study permit caps for 2025 are on the way, we already know the capped amount of study permits will drop by 10% next year. As such, the Canadian international education sector will face the continued challenge of rebuilding Canada’s brand for prospective international students.

Australia’s Attractiveness as a Study Destination Dips in Fall 2024

Australia introduced policy changes similar to Canada’s over the past year, including a higher proof of funding amount and an incoming cap on student visas in 2025. As a result, Australia experienced a 30% dip in student visa applications from January to May 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.

Interestingly, Australia’s attractiveness score was more resilient than Canada’s, dropping by only seven percentage points between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024. Yet when respondents were asked directly, 75% agreed it had become a less desirable option:

UK Dependents Policy Continues to Affect International Student Sentiment

Unlike Canada and Australia, the UK’s attractiveness to international students grew over the last six months. In Fall 2024, 82% of participants said their students found the UK either “very attractive” or “attractive,” which is up from 69% in Spring 2024 and 76% in Fall 2023.

That said, recent policy changes in the UK, especially the limiting of which international students could bring dependents, continues to affect student choice. In the year ending June 2024, fewer study visas were issued than in the previous year. Student recruitment professionals’ opinion of this policy change has also leaned slightly more pessimistic in our most recent survey:

Destination Markets Continue to Diversify

So, if interest in traditional Anglophone study destinations is wavering, where is the next cohort of international students setting their sights?

When asked about other options, counsellors identified European markets as strong contenders:

Out of all the countries respondents entered, France and Finland were of highest interest. But students’ curiosity spans Europe: from Portugal and Spain in the west to Latvia and Poland in the east. One might be surprised to see Malta appear so prominently above—but this small, sunny island country is a bilingual nation (English and Maltese) with a comparatively low cost of living and institutions that don’t always require an English proficiency test score (like IELTS or PTE).⁵ As students search for more affordable options, countries like Malta are increasingly compelling alternatives. General interest in Europe as a continent—and the as a region within it—was also strong.

Asian destinations were also top-of-mind for students and counsellors in our Fall 2024 RP Pulse Survey. While South Korea led the region, participants also shared their students’ interest in multicultural, cosmopolitan cities like Singapore and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

Perceived Affordability of Popular Student Markets Diverges in 2024

As in our Spring 2024 survey, Germany was seen as the most economical destination of the six focus countries. 72% of the Fall 2024 survey respondents agreed it was an affordable option:

That said, it’s interesting that the perception of affordability hasn’t changed uniformly over the past year. Perceptions of affordability for the US and the UK were up compared to 2023, but down for Canada and Australia. Ireland remained steady. The US and the UK’s improvement on this metric in this most recent survey contrasts with our previous survey. In Spring 2024, all featured countries were seen as less affordable than in our 2022 and 2023 surveys.

Employability and Affordability Remain Top Student Concerns

Supporting an international student is a major financial investment for many families. So, it isn’t surprising that the overall cost of studying remained the most important factor when deciding where to study:

While the top five factors students consider when deciding where to study are the same in the Fall 2024 and Fall 2023 RP Pulse Surveys, priorities have shifted. For example, “opportunities to work while studying” dropped from second to fourth place. Meanwhile, “post-graduation work opportunities” became the second most important factor.

As students increasingly align their studies to programs that prepare them to work in high-demand fields, understanding their post-graduation work options—whether Optional Practical Training in the US or the in Australia—is a key step in deciding their destination.

As student visa approval rates for many emerging markets dropped in early 2024—in Canada, two-thirds of all student populations had a lower study permit approval rate compared to full-year 2023—it’s clear prospective students and their advisors are also more aware of this potential stumbling block. Compared to the Fall 2023 survey, “visa processing times and/or approval rates” climbed by 13 percentage points.⁶

Key Takeaways

By gathering feedback from student recruitment professionals from over 40 countries, the �ǿ�Ӱ��RP Pulse Survey remains a helpful check-in on the international education sector. We’d like to thank everyone who participated. Your insights help us understand how international education is changing in your community! By monitoring how students and student counsellors view different markets as well as the sector itself, we’re better equipped to proactively address challenges future students face.

Based on the results of this survey, it’s clear that changes throughout the sector have influenced students’ considerations and priorities. To best support prospective international students, academic institutions should consider the following:

• While interest in international study has rebounded slightly from our findings in Spring 2024, students continue to place a high value on factors like affordability and programs that lead to post-graduation work opportunities.
• As students consider an ever-growing list of potential destinations, be clear about why students should choose your institution. Transparency around tuition and other fees—and highlighting how your institution helps students strengthen their career skills—can help your team build trust with students even before they enrol.
• Changes to government policy can be hard to understand, even if you’re a local. Consider having a page on your institution’s website or pinned social media posts about the changes and how they affect future students.

Stay tuned to ApplyInsights—our Student Pulse Survey is underway and we’ll share the results later this fall.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The Fall 2024 RP Pulse Survey ran from September 3, 2024 to September 17, 2024, and had 369 responses.

2. The previous two RP Pulse Surveys were conducted in March 2024 and October 2023.

3. “Big Four” destinations include the most popular countries for post-secondary education in English: Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

4. The White House, “.” September 17, 2024.

5. Malta University, “.” Accessed Sept. 2024.

6. In our most recent survey, we split “visa processing times” from “visa approval rates” for greater visibility into student motivations. As such, the 2024 survey result above is purely for “visa approval rates.” (Visa processing times were cited as a top-five concern by 12% of respondents.)

The post Counsellor Survey Shows International Student Preferences Shifting to the US and Europe appeared first on ApplyBoard.

While it’s been nearly a year since its introduction, the Canadian international student cap still represents a significant shift in policy compared to the previous decade. Its limitations on student mobility have already dampened student interest in studying in Canada, although it will still be months before full 2024 study permit impacts are known.

Now, the Government of Canada has announced that it will be further tightening its international student cap in 2025. And, in the two weeks since then, we’ve seen a lot of confusion among students, counsellors, institution staff, and sector leaders on the 2025 cap numbers, terminology, and more. This is to no fault of their own—the 2024 cap itself was technically complex, and as Alex Usher rightly pointed out, .

To help provide increased clarity on what’s been shared about the 2025 caps to date, we’re going to share our projections for the coming year and revisit the math behind the 2024 caps. Keep in mind that these projections are internal estimates only, and they contain certain underlying assumptions due to continuing data availability limitations as of October 2, 2024.

What We Know About Canada’s 2025 International Student Caps So Far

On September 18, 2024, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (IRCC) about Canada’s planned international student caps for 2025. The main points related to the cap for 2025 are as follows:

• The cap is reduced from 2024 levels by 10% in 2025, meaning that study permits issued¹ in 2025 will be capped at 437,000.
• It will include master’s and PhD degree students in the capped levels of study.
• K-12 (primary and secondary) students will remain exempt from the cap.
• The government will release greater details to individual provinces and territories in the coming weeks.

Since this announcement, the sector has been awaiting more technical information from IRCC to better understand the specific student visa impacts of the 2025 caps.² While it’s tempting to just subtract 10% from the 2024 application allotments to project how provinces and institutions will be impacted in 2025, the reality is more complicated. This complication is because of two main factors: the calculations used for revised allotment totals in 2024, and the need to roll estimates for postgraduate studies into the 2025 figures (both of which we’ll cover below).

It’s also important to understand the terminology related to Canada’s international student cap. Specifically, there is 1) a target number of study permits, and 2) a cap on the number of applications the government will process based on the targeted number. In short, the government does not want the number of student visas to exceed a set amount, and their means to meeting this goal is limiting the number of applications they will process.

Projecting Canada’s 2025 International Student Cap

As noted, the Canadian government has announced a 2025 total approval target of 437,000 study permits, a reduction of 10% from the 2024 target.³

Here’s what a uniform 10% reduction would mean for the 2025 breakdown, assuming the three categories (extensions, buffer, and new approvals) are divided in a similar way as the 2024 outline:⁴

Rolling back adjustments that strived to achieve sustainable growth while mitigating sharp declines would risk further damaging Canada’s global attractiveness as a study abroad destination. As such, we’re not anticipating this will end up being the case. But, of course, the sector can’t be totally certain—and institutions can’t enact any strategic planning one way or the other—until the government releases its technical briefing.

Assuming those final adjustments aren’t rolled back, we’ve used the math behind the 2024 figures to project what we think the approval targets and application caps might look like for 2025. Note that these are estimates only and contain certain underlying assumptions due to continuing data availability limitations as of October 2, 2024 and �ǿ�Ӱ��is not liable for accuracy of the projection:

The postgraduate level’s inclusion into the cap creates some of the largest complicating factors with projecting 2025. This requires making many assumptions about 2025’s possibilities. Here are the assumptions we’ve made that helped us arrive at our projections:

• Assumed 2025 will follow , and that the 10% reductions would apply across the board.
• Assumed each province would receive the same percentage of distributed target approvals as they did in 2024.⁵
• Assumed no changes were made to the final approval rate estimates in the 2024 outline.⁶

We want to reiterate here that the high number of assumptions made in this projection creates a significant margin of error. While these assumptions are based on the math behind the 2024 cap outline, any change the government makes to their calculations in 2025 could offset these projections to a wide degree.

The ApplyInsights team will continue to monitor and will produce updated estimations as more information becomes available. Register for our newsletter below to ensure you always have the most up to date analysis.

The Key Takeaway About Canada’s 2025 International Student Cap

With many details yet to be fully confirmed by IRCC, we likely won’t know the specific impact of these cap changes on student demand until early in 2025. What we know at this point is that rolling postgraduate studies into the cap should help institutions streamline applications and eliminate potential complications.⁷

However, it also means that undergraduate and college students will now be competing with postgraduate students for a province’s limited number of application allotments. While provinces must reserve 12% of their application allotments for postgraduate students, they can certainly go over that reservation. But doing so means taking away from the undergraduate level.⁸

Reducing the cap by 10% and reserving 12% of the new figure for postgraduate students—as was outlined in the government’s media briefing—would mean that application allotments for undergraduate and college students will drop, at minimum, by 21%. And should provinces allocate more than 12% of their applications for postgraduate students, the undergraduate drop would grow even higher.

This also means that we’re estimating about 65,000 study permit approvals will be set aside for the exempt K-12 level.

Understanding Canada’s International Student Cap – 2024 Overview

To fully understand the 2025 projections, let’s revisit the math behind the 2024 cap to see how it influenced the baseline for the 2025 caps.

While the application cap is what tangibly impacts institutions and students, the calculations behind it are based on the target number of student visas. So for the moment, let’s unpack how the government arrived at its approval target for 2024:

In 2024, the target number of total approved study permits was 485,000. This was based on a net-zero growth model, meaning that the number of students entering the country should not exceed the number of permits expiring in the given year.

The 2024 cap target number comprises three categories: extensions, buffers, and approvals. According to IRCC, about . IRCC also set aside a buffer of about 5% in 2024, meaning new study permit approvals accounted for about 75% of the total target for 2024.

Understanding Canada’s International Student Cap – Targets for New Study Permit Approvals

That new study permit approvals category is why we can’t simply subtract 10% from the total overview figures in order to determine the 2025 caps, as outlined below:

The new approvals category consists of two sub-categories: non-capped study levels and capped study levels.⁹ Each sub-category comes with complicating factors for the 2025 cap.

For non-capped study levels, the K-12 and postgraduate estimates were set as one approval target in 2024. But with the postgraduate level becoming capped in 2025, this figure will need to be unraveled.

For capped study levels, things are especially muddied. The initial target for capped levels was 235,600 new approvals, or approximately 49% of the total net-zero 2024 goal. The government then adjusted this figure to account for provincial demographics, approval rates, and more.

To read more about these provincial adjustments, read our explanation of the 2024 student application cap allotments.

The final adjustments to the capped study levels target approvals were ultimately a good thing. They encouraged sustainable growth in provinces that saw allotments increase over 2023 levels, limited reductions to just 10% drops for most provinces that saw declines from 2023 levels, and accounted for each province’s historical approval rates.

But these positive changes also obscured the mathematical clarity. When the final adjusted target for capped levels is added to the non-capped levels, it results in a total of 420,000 new approvals for all study levels in 2024, 15% more than the 364,000 target approvals outlined in the overview. This also means that the combined number of study permits across the three main categories (541,000) exceeds the stated net-zero target (485,000):

Understanding Canada’s International Student Cap – Study Permit Volumes Fall Short of Cap in 2024

In the end, these mathematical issues are likely to have little impact on final study permit figures for 2024. This is because Canada is poised to fall well short of the outlined 2024 targets:

Using the latest data procured from IRCC, we’ve projected that about 231,000 student visas will be approved for all postsecondary studies in 2024. While the K-12 level will add to the total number of visas approved, we don’t expect the total number of new approvals to exceed 2019 levels by very much, if at all. The 2019 figure (256,000 total new approvals) would be 30% short of the initial new approval target, and 39% short of the revised new approval target. This is also on par with .

In short, international student demand for a Canadian-based education has fallen to a degree that the mathematical contradictions between the total revised figures and the net-zero target for 2024 are irrelevant. But this contradiction could still have a very tangible impact on the 2025 targets.

Where Does Canada’s International Education Sector Go From Here?

As a sector, our work is now to rebuild confidence in Canada’s brand for prospective international students and demonstrate that Canada remains a welcoming destination for students looking for high-quality education and positive post-graduation outcomes.

It’s important to remember that destination markets don’t operate in a vacuum—we’ve seen time and again how policies in one country can push or pull student inflows from another. With Australia recently announcing their own international student cap, and the UK continuing to see falling demand following restrictions on student dependants, pathways exist for Canada’s international education sector to increase stability and sustainability in the coming years.

Institutions will have a larger role to play in order to realize those pathways. That’s because institutions play a pivotal role in ensuring students feel welcomed, safe, and supported during their study abroad journey. With changes coming to Canada’s PGWP program, institutions that can leverage strong degree-to-career pathways could gain some of the largest strategic advantages not only within Canada but also across the globe.

For more strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your Canadian institution can maximize conversion rates and drive student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. It’s worth highlighting the contradicting terminology of “approvals” and “issued” between the and media releases. While the 2025 target was labeled “study permits issued,” the 2024 target (and the math outlined for that target) was for “study permit approvals. This is a point of confusion, as study permit approvals and study permits issued are two distinct parts of the student visa funnel. While it’s possible the government has changed the basis of their target, the math outlined in the April media release on the 2024 target is based on approvals data.

2. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. For the purposes of this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.

3. It’s worth reiterating here the contradicting terminology as highlighted by footnote 1.

4. Note that these are estimates only, calculated based on the rounded percentage breakdown of , and contain certain underlying assumptions due to continuing data availability limitations as of October 2, 2024. �ǿ�Ӱ��is not liable for accuracy of the projection.

5. For example, if a province received 20% of target approvals in 2024, we assumed it would receive an equal percentage in 2025.

6. The approval rate logic is ultimately how the approval rate target leads to the application allotment. Because postgraduate studies typically have a higher approval rate than undergraduate and college studies, it’s possible the estimated approval rates outlined for the 2024 cap could get raised for the 2025 cap. However, this would doubly hurt undergraduate students by a) reducing the overall number of application allotments available to provinces, and b) functioning as if undergraduate students have a higher approval rate than they’ve had in the past.

7. Exclusion of particular study levels in the 2024 cap may have had the potential to create further limits on capped study levels. For example, if K-12 and postgraduate student levels had far exceeded initial estimations, it is unclear if this could have necessitated stricter limits on undergraduate applications.

8. For example, if an institution is capped to 100 application allotments, they must reserve at least 12 of those for postgraduate students, leaving the remaining 88 for undergraduate students. However, if that institution used 20 allotments for postgraduate students, the undergraduate remainder would be reduced to 80.

9. Note that in about the math of the caps, there appears to be a miscalculation related to the non-capped levels. The news release states that this number was 140,000. However, 140,000 does not work with the subsequent government calculations, so we’ve revised it for this article.

The post Understanding Canada’s International Student Cap for 2025 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

Over the past two years, inflation and economic uncertainty have made day-to-day life more expensive around the world. In Canada, inflation increased by nearly 6% from 2022 to 2024.¹ For international students, this means rising costs for rent, groceries, utilities, and more. These rising costs can have a major impact on the affordability of studying abroad, especially as international students may have limited work opportunities during their studies.

Below, we’re breaking down the two most significant costs for international students studying in Canada in 2024/25: tuition and rent. We’ll look at undergraduate and graduate tuition in every Canadian province, as well as rental costs in major cities coast to coast. We’ll also discuss the current state of student housing in Canada, and what Canadian institutions can do to help international students address affordability concerns.

How Much Does Canadian Tuition Cost for International Students in 2024/25?

Although student demand has been on the decline since the introduction of Canada’s student cap, our projections still show that Canada will process over half a million applications in 2024. That’s because, despite the brand damage it incurred following the cap, Canada remains one of the world’s top learning destinations, with many world-class institutions in welcoming and safe environments.

For most prospective international students, the cost of a study abroad program is likely the largest financial consideration they face. On average, tuition for a four-year undergraduate program at a Canadian institution now costs over $150,000. By contrast, a two-year graduate program may cost less than $50,000 in tuition.

The chart below shows how average annual tuition costs for international students in Canada have changed since 2020/21:

In 2024/25, the average tuition for international students studying at the undergraduate level surpassed $40,000. This was a 5% increase over the previous academic year, although it was the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021/22.³

Postgraduate tuition rates also rose by 5% in 2024/25. However, this was the highest year-over-year rate of change for postgraduate international students in the last five years. Despite this elevated change, postgraduate tuition rates remain much lower than undergraduate costs. In fact, average yearly tuition for postgraduate programs was 64% less than undergraduate studies in 2020/21, dropping to 73% less in 2024/25.

With a planned reduction in new international student populations in 2024⁴ and in 2025 as well, tuition costs may become an increasingly important differentiating factor between institutions. Our Spring 2024 Recruitment Partner (RP) Pulse Survey showed that perceptions of affordability for Canadian studies are dropping, and previous Pulse Surveys have shown that cost of studying remains a key determining factor for many students.

Keep an eye out for upcoming ApplyInsight articles on our Fall 2024 Student and RP Pulse Surveys, which will provide fresh insights into prospective student opinions from around the world.

Average Tuition Cost for International Students by Province

Many factors influence tuition rates, including program length, delivery method, and type of institution. But where a student decides to study in Canada can also have a substantial impact on the tuition they can expect to pay over the course of their program.

A closer look at Canadian tuition affordability shows significant variations by province:

Ontario is the most popular destination province for international students, accounting for 53% of all study permit holders at the end of 2023. This high demand means that Ontario institutions are some of the most competitive in terms of acceptances, and as a result, often feature higher tuition rates.

Yet the average annual tuition for Ontario institutions far surpasses those in the rest of Canada.⁵ Undergraduate tuition in Ontario in 2024/25 is nearly 30% higher than the next most expensive province, British Columbia, and more than double that of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Manitoba, and PEI. For cost-conscious students, studying in these lower-cost provinces can make their Canadian undergraduate journey significantly more affordable.

Based on average 2024/25 tuition rates, a four-year undergraduate program in Newfoundland and Labrador would cost around $70,000. By contrast, the same program in Ontario would cost more than $190,000.

Differences in postgraduate tuition are far less pronounced, with some notable exceptions. While Ontario was the only province to exceed the national undergraduate tuition average, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario all surpassed the national average postgraduate tuition. On the other hand, both Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador featured postgraduate tuition under $10,000, making them the most affordable destinations for international postgraduate students in 2024/25.

Looking at provincial tuition rates for both study levels over the past five years, most provinces feature regular average tuition increases year-over-year:

PEI was the only exception to this trend at the undergraduate level. 2024/25 undergraduate tuition for international students in PEI nearly matches 2020/21 rates, after dropping in 2021/22 and 2022/23. At the postgraduate level, Newfoundland and Labrador’s average postgraduate tuition remained stable in 2024/25, down slightly from a high in 2021/22. Similarly, postgraduate tuition in Alberta in 2024/25 remained below a high set in 2022/23.

How Much Does Rent Cost for International Students in Major Canadian Cities in 2024?

While tuition may be the largest line item on a student’s budget, housing costs are often close behind. One of the reasons that the Canadian government in 2024 is to better reflect the current realities of Canada’s rental market. Housing shortages remain a persistent concern in many destination markets, especially in major urban centres.

Canada’s proof of funds requirement now stands at $20,635, plus first-year tuition and travel costs, to ensure students are financially prepared for success during their study abroad journey.

The graphic below shows the average rent for one bedroom apartments in select Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs)⁶ for 2023:⁷

The average rent for a one bedroom apartment in Toronto and Vancouver remains much higher than other urban centres. Both CMAs featured rent increases of 10% compared to 2022, largely due to limited housing availability.

Based on 2024/25 rates, an international student studying in Toronto or Vancouver can expect to pay over $80,000 in rent over a full four-year undergraduate program.

Yet Calgary saw the largest rent increase year-over-year, becoming the third most expensive CMA due to a nearly 20% average rent increase. The next largest highest increase was for one bedroom apartments in Halifax, with rent prices jumping up by over 14%. The only CMA to see one bedroom rents drop in 2023 was Charottetown, though they only fell by 2% compared to 2022.

As with tuition rates, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada offer higher affordability in terms of average rent. Three of the most cost-effective CMAs are in Atlantic Canada, namely St. John’s, Charlottetown, and Saint John. In these three CMAs, monthly rents remain below $1,000 for a one bedroom apartment. Quebec CMAs such as Québec City and Montréal also offer sub-$1,000 average rent, though Quebec is the third most expensive province for international student tuition. Not far behind, rent in Saskatoon, Winnipeg, and Regina are also relatively low, at around $1,100 monthly.

In short, while rental costs have increased virtually across the board in Canada, price-sensitive students can find more affordable options by considering CMAs off the beaten path.

Purpose-Built Student Housing Falling Behind Growing Demand

Finding an affordable rental can be one of the most difficult challenges when looking to study abroad. That’s why institutions are increasingly facing near 100% occupancy rates for on-campus housing.⁸ On-campus living often features not only lower housing costs, but also easier access to student services, extracurricular activities, and study spaces.

Despite this strong demand for purpose-built student accommodations (PBSAs), availability remains a critical obstacle. Canada has fallen behind other student destinations such as the UK and the US):

In 2023, purpose-built student accommodations were only available for one out of every ten Canadian post-secondary students. By comparison, similar accommodations were available for three times as many students in the USA and the UK.

This shortage also expands beyond specific student accommodations. Across Canada, a general housing shortage is expected to reach 3.5 million units by 2030.⁹ While the Canadian government has recently announced low-cost government financing to , more action is needed. Institutions and governments need to work together to create long-term, affordable housing solutions so that students can focus on their academic success.

How Canadian Institutions Can Help Make Studying Abroad More Affordable for International Students

Helping students be prepared for the financial realities of studying abroad is critical. Increasingly, prospective students are facing Canadian study permit refusals due to a lack of financial resources, a necessary check to best support student success in Canada’s ever-changing economic landscape.

Students should make sure they understand the full financial picture before they embark on their study abroad journey. Prospective students should also look to innovative financial supports, such as ApplyBoard’s International Student GIC programs with TD and RBC, as well as �ǿ�Ӱ��student loans.

But tuition must also remain affordable to ensure that institutions can attract students from a wide variety of backgrounds and lived experiences. This diversity is important not only for expanding the experiences of students on Canadian campuses, but also for the Canadian economy. International students support hundreds of thousands of jobs in Canada, and they will be crucial in replacing retirees in high-demand fields over the next decade.

While may help students who are facing rising tuition, rent, and transportation costs, institutions have a major role to play in helping students understand and overcome financial challenges. Ensuring that international students have easy access to clear information about scholarships, on-campus work opportunities, and student housing options should be front of mind for Canadian institutions. As well, institutions should consider partnerships with local accommodation providers and developers who can help transform vacant office spaces into modern student residences, like .

For more strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your Canadian institution can maximize conversion rates and drive student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Based on the Bank of Canada’s , comparing December 2020 to August 2024.

2. Data courtesy of . All currency in CAD.

3. Average undergraduate tuition for international students increased by 7% in each year from 2021/22 to 2023/24.

4. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “” April 5, 2024.

5. Due to the large population of study permit holders in Ontario, Ontario’s undergraduate tuition rates have a disproportionate weight on the national average of undergraduate tuition.

6. Each CMA comprises multiple areas surrounding the listed city name. These surrounding areas impact the average rental cost in the CMA, often lowering the overall average. For a full breakdown of each CMA region, see the .

7. Based on the average monthly rental cost of a one bedroom apartment in a row or apartment structure of three units or more.

8. According to Desjardin’s “”.

9. Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), “”. September 2023.

The post The Cost of an International Education in Canada in 2024 appeared first on ApplyBoard.

The 2022/23 academic year was a banner year for international education in many popular destination countries. In that academic year, over three quarters of a million international students pursued a UK-based education.¹ This showcases strong demand for studying abroad in the UK, and the UK’s potential to be the world’s top attractive destination for international students.

However, the 2022/23 academic year will likely be a high-water mark for international education in the UK for the next little while. Since the 2022/23 academic year, a host of new policies in the UK alongside and declining GDP in many global economies has chilled study abroad demand in 2024.

Despite the current cooling of demand, enrolment data for 2022/23 still provides us with important insights about what drives student interest for a UK-based education. These insights may prove critical in ensuring UK institutions don’t miss out on international talent during times of suppressed demand. Let’s dive in.

Why International Enrolment in 2022/23 was a High-Water Mark for the UK

It’s important to understand where the UK is today, before looking at where its international section was in 2022/23. In May 2023, the then-government of the UK announced its intention to limit the ability of international students to bring dependants with them when studying in the UK. At the time, we flagged that the UK risked losing demand from student populations with high dependant-to-main-applicant ratios, such as Nigeria and Sri Lanka. Our most recent analysis of sponsored study visas issued in H1 2024 shows this prediction is coming true, as sponsored study visa issuances to Nigerian main applicants dropped 46% year-over-year for the year ending June 2024.²

But the UK’s shift away from welcoming dependants of main applicants is not the only policy affecting student demand. International student fees have risen in 2024. Namely, the Immigration Health Surcharge for students applying to study in the UK , while the for students starting their studies on or after January 2, 2025.

These higher financial thresholds could further lead to students from price-sensitive countries looking elsewhere. Only 47% of respondents to our 2024 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey agreed or strongly agreed that the UK was an affordable destination for students, down from 65% in 2022. The UK was the only destination market to see less than half of respondents answer this way. This shows that while the UK continues to offer high-quality educational opportunities, price may become a larger barrier in the years ahead.

New UK Government’s Commitment to the Graduate Route

Despite these concerns, there are reasons to be optimistic that the UK could recover its international education brand. And it starts from the top.

In May, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) recommended . This helped relieve some uncertainty during a time when the previous government was mulling over its continued support of the Graduate Route. As post-graduation work opportunities are a top student priority, that uncertainty could have majorly hindered the UK’s appeal among prospective students.

Building on the positive momentum of the MAC review, the recently elected . With many UK institutions offering field-leading research opportunities and , it will be critical for the UK’s international education brand to ensure it’s renewing student confidence in the return on investment (ROI) of studying at a UK-based institution.

What Study Level do International Students Prefer in the UK?

With chilled demand defining the current landscape of international education in the UK, digging into the latest available enrolment data can help identify what strengths UK institutions can lean on for competitive advantages over other destination markets.

The UK hosted nearly 760,000 international students for the 2022/23 academic year. This represented a growth of 12% over the previous year. But this growth was not evenly spread between study levels:

Since the pandemic, the postgraduate level has driven enrolment growth in the UK. With 456,000 international students pursuing a postgraduate education, the study level was up 22% compared to the previous academic year. Meanwhile, undergraduate studies have remained relatively flat since 2019/20.

That 22% postgraduate growth figure is interesting, relative to UK international students trends in 2024. When we looked at the Home Office’s most recent study visa data, we found that the number of new sponsored study visas issued to main applicants fell in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023. This demand drop was almost identical to the postgraduate enrolment growth figure of 2022/23.³

So does this mean postgraduate enrolments may just be resetting to 2021/22 numbers? Not quite. The similar change figures are likely coincidental, since issued visas only represent new students while enrolment show longer-term, total student population trends. However, we do expect that much of the decline in visa issuances will be at the postgraduate level, since these older students are more likely to be impacted by new restrictions on dependants than the typically younger students at the undergraduate level.

How Study Visa Trends Have Shifted in 2024 for the Top Student Populations by 2022/23 Enrolment

International students outside of the European Union drove UK enrolment growth in 2022/23. The 663,000 non-European international students enrolled in all levels of study represented a growth of 20% over the previous academic year. For comparison, the 96,000 European students in the UK in 2022/23 was a year-over-year decline of 21%. This continued a downward trend of shrinking European student populations after European students lost discounted tuition fees following Brexit in 2021.

Let’s take a look to see how enrolment trends in 2022/23 compare to visa issuances trends we saw in H1 2024:⁴

Many of the UK’s largest student populations were booming in the 2022/23 academic year. Enrolment of students from India, Nigeria, and Pakistan were up at least 39% each compared to the previous academic year. And many emerging student populations, such as those from Bangladesh and Malaysia, were also on the rise.

But the landscape significantly differs looking at sponsored study visa issuances for the first half of 2024. The majority of top non-European student populations were issued at least 10% fewer new study visas compared to H1 2023, with many dropping by over 25%. There are a few outliers, like Pakistan (and Nepal, which grew by 33% in H1 2024), but the larger trend shows shrinking student populations.

These shifts highlight the importance for UK institutions to remain agile and adaptive, and ensure they’re recruiting a diverse student body. Institutions with strong student networks throughout the world will be in a much better position to reallocate their recruitment resources toward new opportunities compared to institutions that are situated in only a handful of countries.

Click here to see which international student populations are bucking downward UK visa trends in 2024.

�ǿ�Ӱ��Can Help Your Institution Adapt to Shifting Demand

The 2022/23 HESA enrolment data showcases the high potential that exists in the UK’s international education sector. While sponsored study visa issuances have been downtrending following a number of policies and global economic developments during the last year, that doesn’t mean the sector is without opportunity. In fact, several key student populations are bucking those downward trends, with demand reaching unprecedented levels in countries like Pakistan and Nepal.

Instead, an era of contracted demand means that institutions need to be more strategic, intentional, and agile with their recruitment resources. �ǿ�Ӱ��can help your team connect with prospective students faster and easier. With strong networks all over the world, including in the areas where demand for UK study visas continues to grow, our work to ensure higher conversion rates can make a meaningful difference both to your institution and hopeful international students.

If you’re part of a team that’s interested in receiving specific insights tailored to your institution’s international recruitment goals, reach out to ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team. We’ll work with you to identify the best diversification opportunities with current, actionable data that can help your institution thrive even in times of change.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All enrolment data courtesy of . Academic years are from August of the previous year to July of the given year.

2. All sponsored study visa data courtesy of the . Year ending June measures July of the previous year to June of the given year.

3. The growth rate for postgraduate enrolment was 22.4% for 2022/23. The decline in study visas issued for H1 2024 was 22.9%.

4. Note that these figures are not directly comparable. The enrolment data comprises the entire international student body, while the student visas issued data comprises new visa issuances to main applicants only.

The post UK International Enrolment Reached High-Water Mark in the 2022/23 Academic Year appeared first on ApplyBoard.

Throughout 2024, stakeholders from across the education sector have expressed strong concerns about changes to Canada’s International Student Program. These concerns range from a downturn in the number of international students applying to the economic impact that this shift in demand may have. While the federal government’s cap on study permit¹ applications was designed to increase the sector’s sustainability, data from the first half of the year shows the cap may have contributed to chilling demand to the extent that the government’s projections for 2024 will not be met.²

High-profile policy changes like the increased proof of finances amount and study permit application cap have undoubtedly shifted students’ outlook on Canada. So, what can we expect the rest of 2024 to hold? Taking into account past and ongoing study permit application trends, we’re projecting a 39% drop in global applications for Canadian study permits in 2024 compared to 2023.

Read on to explore this projection in further detail, as well as a closer look at how the policy changes have affected student interest in different provinces and for various levels of study so far this year.

Canadian Study Permit Applications and Approvals Down in the First Six Months of 2024

Earlier this year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced that the number of study permit applications they would process in 2024 would be capped at 606,000.³

Based on this processing cap, and an average study permit approval rate of 60%, the government determined that the total number of new study permits they aimed to approve in 2024 was 364,000. This total approval figure comprised two pools of applications. First, the government used past student visa trends and current provincial population data to set a target of 292,000⁴ study permits approved for non-exempt study levels (revised from the initial calculation of 236,000).⁵ This was then added to last year’s number of approved student visas in exempt study levels (128,000).

Yet, based on data from the first half of 2024, both application and approval volumes are lagging behind government targets. In Q2 of 2024 (April to June), 127,700 new study permits were processed by IRCC. In comparison, nearly 238,800 study permit applications were processed in Q2 last year, representing a year-over-year drop of 54%.⁶

Below, we project how many new study permit applications (for both cap-exempt and non-exempt study levels) will be processed in H2 2024 if demand remains steady from Q2 through Q3 and Q4:

For the Q3 and Q4 2024 projections, we used the 54% decline in study permits processed between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 to calculate the projected number of processed study permits. However, the full-year projection varies due to stronger application volumes in Q1. As such, overall, we project that 39% fewer new study permits will be processed in 2024 compared to 2023.

This decrease is mirrored in the number of study permits approved as well. From January to June 2024, just under 114,000 new study permits were approved for post-secondary study, compared to nearly 220,000 over the same period in 2023. That’s a drop of 48%.

It’s also worth noting that the average study permit approval rate dropped from 58% to 51% YOY (through the first six months of 2023 and 2024), both of which are lower than the government’s study permit approval rate target of 60% for 2024.⁷ While it’s possible the approval rate may improve in July–December 2024, to max out the full number of possible study permits, demand would have to rise as well. With an estimated 230,000 study permits projected to be processed in the last half of the year, even an approval rate of 100% would not be enough, given that only 114,000 study permits were approved in the first six months of 2024.⁸

New Study Permit Approvals Likely to Return to 2018–2019 Levels by End of 2024

If the post-secondary study permit approval rate remains at 51% for the rest of 2024, we project that just over 117,000 post-secondary study permits will be approved in H2 2024 (Jul–Dec). Combined with the 114,000 new study permits approved in H1 2024 (Jan–Jun), the total number of post-secondary approved study permits in 2024 would be just over 231,000. Study permits for K-12 students will add to this total, but are a smaller portion of permits approved.

Ultimately, unless the number of applications and the overall approval rate increase, it’s unlikely the cap will be hit:

While K-12 study permit approvals are likely to bump up our 2024 projection, we project that the full-year study permit approval numbers will look a lot more like they did in 2018 and 2019, in the mid 200,000s.

This shift in demand may have a far-reaching and long-lasting effect, as international students help to drive our global economy. They spur innovation and support millions of jobs, both in their home countries and study destinations.

Study Permit Processing in First Half of 2024 Matched 2022 Levels, But Expect Second Half to Fall Much Lower

In our first look at 2024 study permit data, we saw that March was the first month where the total number of new study permits processed for post-secondary programs was lower than in 2023. This trend continued through Q2 2024, with monthly numbers sometimes less than half of what they were in 2023. To better understand this shift, and how processing levels have changed over the past few years, let’s take a high-level look at all new study permit applications (K-12 and post-secondary) processed in the first half of the calendar year:

One thing that jumps out is that the number of study permits processed in H1 of 2022 and H1 of 2024 is fairly similar. In fact, only 665 more permits were processed from January to June of 2024 compared to the same period two years ago. So, could it be argued that permit processing is returning to form, and 2023 was an outlier? The answer isn’t that simple.

Where the number of processed permits was roughly even through each month of the first half of 2022, with June’s numbers increasing, that isn’t true for 2024. Processing numbers for January and February 2024 were markedly higher than the following months. This is because average study permit processing times were 9 to 10 weeks in late 2023 and early 2024, meaning that most if not all of the permits processed in Jan–Feb 2024 were submitted before the government’s cap was in effect. Then, permit processing slowed through March and April as provincial attestation letter (PAL) systems were designed and added to the study permit application procedure.

By Q2 2024, study permit applications submitted before the caps would have largely been processed. So, the drop in permits processed can be attributed both to students who paused or deferred their study permit application and to others who pivoted to different destinations. As demand is not expected to recover in the immediate future, it is unlikely to see 2024 processing numbers match those of 2022.

The Caps’ Effect on Capped and Cap-Exempt Post-Secondary Programs

So far in 2024, the number of processed study permit applications are down across the board for post-secondary programs. In Q1 2024, applications decreased by 26% year-over-year for programs affected by the study permit caps. Cap-exempt programs (master’s and doctoral degree programs) also saw a YOY dip of 21%.

This downwards trend continued through Q2 2024, as shown in the visualization below. We’ve used the delta between Q2 2024 numbers and Q2 2023 numbers to project how many capped and cap-exempt post-secondary study permits may be processed in Q3 and Q4:

In Q2 2024, processed study permit volumes for programs under the caps slowed by 58% compared to Q2 2023. In comparison, cap-exempt programs in the most recent quarter changed less drastically. Applications processed for cap-exempt programs dipped by 25% in Q2 2024, just four percentage points less than Q1 2024’s YOY change.

If conditions remain similar through the end of 2024, the number of processed study permit applications could be 50% lower this year for capped post-secondary programs, and 24% lower for cap-exempt programs.

Study Permit Processing Times Stabilize

However, it’s worth noting that study permit processing times were at their highest point over the last three years in Q2 2024. If processing times improve in Q3 and Q4, it’s possible more study permits will be processed than were estimated above.

Faster average study permit processing times compared to spring 2024 are an indicator that the sector has adjusted to recent process changes:

The average study permit processing time was 7 weeks in August 2024, nearly half of what it was in April and May (14 to 15 weeks). At the time of publishing, the average study permit processing time was 5 or 6 weeks for many student populations. This is similar to some of IRCC’s speediest processing times in 2023. It is encouraging that many students are receiving the results of their application faster than in previous years, as quicker processing times enable them to plan their study abroad journeys more proactively.

Provincial Trends Reflect National Slowdown

Many academic institutions have been eager to determine how the different Canadian provinces have been affected by policy changes like the study permit cap. Taking a closer look at Q2 data from 2023 and 2024, it’s clear that July and August are two of the busiest months for study permit processing. This means that we won’t know the full scale of the impact of study permit process changes until later this year:

When the caps were announced, it was clear Ontario and British Columbia (BC) would be the most affected. These two provinces are home to the largest international student populations, yet Ontario was slated to receive 41% fewer study permit approvals in 2024, while 18% fewer study permit approvals would be given to students attending institutions in BC.

However, processing volume declines have outpaced these intended decreases. 49% fewer post-secondary study permits for BC institutions were processed in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. Meanwhile, 70% fewer post-secondary study permit applications were processed for Ontario-bound students over the same period. While implementing the provincial attestation letter process essentially paused processing in early 2024, this large swing in processing numbers make it likely that approvals will be lower than the government’s targets.

Other provinces (Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Saskatchewan) were allotted more room to grow under the study permit caps. While the number of study permits processed for Quebec stayed relatively stable through the first half of 2023 and 2024, the other three provinces saw sizable YOY drops in study permit processing numbers for Q2 2024.

As emerging provincial destinations for international students, the Maritimes (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island) saw their international student populations swell in 2023. However, lower 2024 study permit processing numbers across the board in Q1 and Q2 points to the likelihood of a smaller influx of students in 2024. This suggests that student demand from applicants who might have previously applied to institutions in BC or Ontario did not entirely shift to other provinces, but instead likely shifted towards other destination countries entirely.

Shifts in Student Populations Reflect Changing Environment

In H1 2024, 55,500 post-secondary study permits were approved for Indian students. This accounted for 49% of Canada’s incoming international post-secondary students, the same percentage as full-year 2023 and only slightly lower than H1 2023 (51%). With a study permit approval rate of 85% in Jan–Jun 2024, prospective Indian students aren’t being rejected at significant rates. Instead, the lower volume of submitted study permit applications in H1 2024 suggests that their interest in Canada continues to wane.

Indian students aren’t alone in considering different study abroad options. In fact, global searches for “study in Canada” are almost 20% lower than they were in 2023, pointing to shifts in the landscape as other destinations gain ground, and a weakening of Canada’s overall brand with prospective students.

When we look at some of the student populations who received the highest number of study permit approvals in 2023, H1 2024 (January to June) approval numbers are much lower than H1 2023, although there are exceptions like China, Ghana, and Guinea:

The difference in the number of approved study permits for Nigerian students between 2023 and 2024 is striking. At 28% of the H1 2023 amount, Nigerian students remained a top three student population in Canada in 2024, but the effect of their lower study permit approval rate is clear. This number of Nigerian approvals is also surprising as Canada was thought to be well-positioned to welcome Nigerian students dissuaded from studying in the United Kingdom due to the UK’s dependants policy change in 2023.

Similarly, H1 2024 approvals for Nepal (1,981) and the Philippines (3,253) are well below where they were at this point last year, respectively reaching 24% and 34% of their H1 2023 levels.

To understand what trends are driving international study in the UK, and how its international student populations are shifting, check out our analysis of the latest Home Office data.

Key Takeaways

Policy updates including the study permit cap have certainly affected how international students perceive Canada as a study abroad destination. While these measures were intended to ensure international education remains sustainable for years to come, they have had an immediate effect on student demand. Study permit approval numbers in the first half of 2024 illustrate the importance of recruiting a diverse range of student populations, especially as demand levels can fluctuate rapidly, particularly when external factors like inflation and currency devaluation reduce student mobility.

Given depressed student demand, rising global student interest in diversified study destinations, and a lower study permit approval rate, we expect that 2025 study permit cap levels will climb above 2024 levels. We’ve already seen some evidence of targeted program launches to attract specific student demographics, such as the Francophone Minority Communities Student Pilot which will enable up to 2,300 French-speaking international students to study in French at institutions across Canada in its first year. While Canada is still perceived as a safe and high-quality destination, this data shows that Canada’s ability to attract new students is capable of changing quickly, causing ripple effects across the international education sector.

As a sector leader in document verification and agent training, �ǿ�Ӱ��works with institutions across Canada to streamline international student recruitment. Our services help to reduce administrative time, proof key application documents, and more. Our work to ensure higher conversion rates can make a meaningful difference both to your institution and hopeful international students. For data-backed guidance on how you can maximize conversion rates, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.

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FOOTNOTES:

1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. For the purposes of this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.

2. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted.

3. Not all study permit applications processed by IRCC are approved. See the third Key Insight bullet for our projection of how many new permits we expect to be approved in full-year 2024.

4. The initial calculation for study permits approved for capped programs was 236,000. (236,000+128,000=364,000). However, to balance out the impact of the caps, the government adjusted their calculations in April to project that closer to 292,000 study permits would be approved in 2024.

5. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “.” April 5, 2024.

6. As of January 2024, were capped by IRCC. However, study permit applications to master’s degree, doctoral degree, and primary/secondary school (K-12) programs were exempt from the cap, meaning IRCC wouldn’t limit the number of applications they processed for these programs.

7. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “” Public data sheet.

8. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “” April 5, 2024.

9. To calculate the number of approved permits needed to reach the cap level for 2024, we first subtracted the 114,000 approved permits in H1 2024 from 364,000 (total approvals) to get 250,000 as the target number for H2. As 250,000 is higher than the projected number of processed post-secondary study permits for H2 2024 (230,000), and primary and secondary school permits would not add significantly enough to this projected amount, we concluded that an improved approval rate alone would not be enough to max out the caps.

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