Happy New Year, ApplyInsights readers! After a year of unprecedented challenges in international education and inspiring resilience from stakeholders across the industry, it鈥檚 time to turn the page to 2021. In today鈥檚 article, I want to talk about what’s in store for the industry this year and beyond.
As I mentioned in my review of our top insights of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic is primed to once again be the top story in international education in 2021. We saw prospective international students respond to the pandemic in three different ways:
- Proceed with their international education plans from their home country by beginning online courses at their chosen school
- Enroll at an institution in their home country instead
- Defer their study plans to begin their study abroad journey post-pandemic
At ApplyBoard, we saw a spike in applications submitted on our platform last fall for the January 2021 intake following the slowdown during the initial stages of the pandemic. We鈥檝e seen strong early numbers for the September 2021 intake as well.听
International Education Post-Pandemic
Even so, from speaking with our recruitment partners, I know that the majority of students are waiting until in-person classes resume to commit to their study abroad journey. Our August 2020 recruitment partner survey confirmed this.听
60% of survey respondents said that the students they were working with who chose to defer their decision to study abroad did so because they prefer learning in-person. 70% heard from students who expressed a preference for learning in person even as they began courses online.
Whether it鈥檚 in September 2021 or sometime in 2022, look for a boom in international enrollment once in-person classes return as the dam breaks and this build-up of students spills into schools across the big six English-language markets.1 This 鈥渄ouble cohort鈥� of students should provide schools able to meet the spike in demand with an opportunity to recover some revenue lost during the pandemic.听
With so many students who might otherwise have gone abroad electing to stay in their home country for undergraduate studies, I expect we鈥檒l also see a jump in master鈥檚 degree and other post-graduate program enrollment two to three years from now. These students have a demonstrated interest in international education, but will likely look to finish up their current degree program first.
Student Experience Growing in Importance
It鈥檚 important to keep in mind that any post-pandemic boom and post-graduate 鈥渆cho鈥� that follows will likely be temporary. I expect we鈥檒l see some residual effects as students who are unable to get accepted during the initial rush apply again for later intakes. However, I anticipate annual growth industry-wide settling back in around the 10% mark we鈥檝e seen over the past few years.听
For schools looking to continue to grow their international enrollment, this will mean a heated competition for students.
One way for schools to remain competitive is to continue to invest in the student experience. It鈥檚 something we鈥檝e seen come to the forefront during the pandemic.听
In a Fall 2020 survey, the found that 68% of US institutions responded to the crisis by adapting advising or student services for online international students. Continuing to offer these services online as well as in-person provides another avenue for international students to access valuable supports when and how they need them. It鈥檚 a great example of one way schools can show prospective students that they鈥檙e working hard to deliver what they need.听
While it鈥檚 a big shift from more traditional understandings of the student-school relationship, I see a growing need for schools to treat students as customers. The schools that meet students鈥� needs the best鈥攖hat provide the best customer service鈥攚ill be the ones who remain successful moving forward.听
Top Destination Markets Jockey for Position
After a tumultuous four years in US politics, students and educators around the world have . I鈥檓 also optimistic that we鈥檒l see the US international education market rebound rapidly, mirroring the growth we saw under the Obama administration and reversing the past four years of declining new student enrollment.2 
Canada鈥檚 immigration focus leaves it well positioned even in light of a more attractive US market. I loved how Jo Johnson, Chair of the 星空影视Advisory Board and former UK Minister of State for Universities, Science & Innovation, put it during :
鈥淐anada has been absolutely steadfast in recognizing the benefits of immigration and the benefits of a diverse and multicultural learning environment.鈥� 鈥� Jo Johnson, Chair, 星空影视Advisory Board
The stability of that long-standing commitment is something students around the world have noticed. Canada鈥檚 relative affordability is another strength that may become even more salient post-pandemic as major source markets recover from the economic shock of the pandemic.
The that India, Canada鈥檚 top source market for international students, experienced a 10% contraction in GDP in 2020. This is a real risk factor for Canada, but I鈥檓 optimistic that the country鈥檚 reasonable tuition fees and comparatively low cost of living will continue to make it attractive for Indian students moving forward.
The UK, much like the US, is in a period of transition. The new Graduate Immigration Route, introduced in 2019 and set to take effect this summer, has been a hot topic among our recruitment partners. I鈥檓 hearing renewed interest in the UK market among international students looking to emigrate, a promising sign for the market. But the countervailing effects of Brexit on EU-to-UK student movement mean the UK international education industry could be in for a challenging few years.听
I鈥檓 also concerned about the UK鈥檚鈥攁nd to a lesser extent Australia鈥檚鈥攐verreliance on the Chinese market as more Chinese students look to stay within China鈥檚 own burgeoning post-secondary system. How the Chinese and Indian markets shift post-pandemic will have profound effects on the global international education industry, and I鈥檒l be keeping a close eye on these shifts throughout 2021.
Campus Diversity a Top Priority
A diverse campus is a strong campus. ApplyBoard鈥檚 mission to educate the world extends beyond the students we help realize their study abroad journey to the students whose lives are enriched by the diverse backgrounds their peers bring with them to campus.
But diversifying student intake is valuable even beyond enriching the student experience. A supply of international students from a wide variety of countries can help de-risk international student intake.
In the post-pandemic world, it will be more critical than ever for schools and governments looking to retain and grow market share to think about alternative source markets for international students.
Over the next few months at ApplyInsights, we鈥檒l examine markets with the following:
- Large student populations
- Underdeveloped post-secondary schooling systems
- Low present volumes of outbound international students听
These markets are high-potential by nature but often have unfavourable economics or present serious fraud risk. Next week, I鈥檒l be taking a deep dive into Nigeria, Africa鈥檚 most populous country and a market I鈥檝e long been excited about. Later on, I鈥檒l take a look at Bangladesh, whose for the first time in almost 30 years.3听
I鈥檒l also be digging into some research ApplyBoard鈥檚 Data Science Team has conducted on how schools can differentiate between bona fide students and those just trying to get into the destination country to work. And I鈥檒l be sitting down with ApplyBoard鈥檚 Chief Information Security Officer, Paul Mason, for a larger conversation about fraud in the industry and how schools can protect themselves and their students from costly and embarrassing security breaches.听
I look forward to exploring these issues and more in the coming year. If there鈥檚 a topic you鈥檇 like to have me look into, email me at applyinsights@applyboard.com.
Published: January 6, 2021
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Co-Founder and Chief Marketing Officer (CMO)
Meti is driven by the belief that education is a right, not a privilege. In his role as Co-Founder and Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) at ApplyBoard, he leads the International Recruitment, Partner Relations, Sales Enablement, Sales Operations, and Marketing teams along a shared mission to educate the world. Meti has been instrumental in building partnerships with 1,200+ educational institutions across North America, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Working with over 4,000 international recruitment partners, ApplyBoard has assisted more than 120,000 students in their study abroad journey.
Meti was honoured in 2019 by Forbes, being named to three Top 30 Under 30 lists, including Education, Immigrants, and Big Money. for more access to ApplyInsights and key industry trends.
FOOTNOTES:
1. The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and New Zealand.
2. Data courtesy of the IIE. While many have attributed this decline to , it鈥檚 important to note that the decline began in the final year of the Obama administration, when , before accelerating under Trump.
